E-Mini S&P

The focus of Wednesday's tutorial session was a prospective short that triggered at the green line shortly after the class ended.  You'd have needed to be on the three-minute chart to initiate the trade in the way I'd suggested, but here's the relevant pattern for anyone who's interested: a=2265.25 (3:03 p.m. ET); B=2261.00 (3:39); and C=2263.00 (3:45). The chart shown provides a bigger picture, with Hidden Pivot levels that can be used Wednesday night and Thursday to go long or short enroute to D=2240.00. That target will be well in play if p=2254.75 gives way, but doesn't negate the appeal of bottom-fishing at p if you've been short from above it or are opening a new position. Incidentally, I posted the same chart in the chat room at 11:51 before the breakdown, along with the following note:  'Here is the pattern controlling the E-Mini at the moment. You may rely on it -- precisely -- if the futures start to fall.' _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 7:24 p.m. ET): Bears cracked 2254.75, then went nowhere. They'll struggle even harder to hold this gas-bag down on a Friday ahead of a three-day weekend.

We rode a tracking position in the December contract to within an inch of the recent top, logging a theoretical gain of nearly $9000 on the trade. However, I am recommending shorts from the 2270.00 rally target shown only to those of you who held long positions at least part of the way up, or who are comfortable with using the 'camouflage' technique to get short at these levels. The expertise to do so is nearly always present in the chat room, and that is therefore where you should seek guidance if you're keen on getting short. As you can see, last week's record high at 2273.00 exceeded by just a hair (3.00 points, actually) a target that had been ten months in coming. It's no stretch to think that the high could prove to be a very important one, perhaps even marking the end of the bull market begun in March 2009. However, we will assume no such thing for the time being, since we do not pretend to have a crystal ball.  But if the futures were to close for two consecutive days above 2270.00, or trade more than 5.00 points above it intraday, I would infer that another major bull leg is about to unfold. A 2417.50 rally target would then obtain -- equivalent to around Dow 21000. As things stand, a pullback now to 2223.00 would in theory be a 'mechanical' buy for a ride to that number. ________ UPDATE (Dec 19, 9:37 p.m. ET): A tedious scuddle sideways on Monday did nothing to change the current outlook. A decisive push past the 'secondary pivot' at 2275.69 would signal that buyers are about to make a run at 2309.50, a rally target broached here earlier and my nearest significant price objective.  Alternatively, a breach to the

The March contract on Tuesday exceeded a long-term target at 2270.00 by three points, a  seemingly modest feat that could have very bullish implications going forward. Although the small overshoot was not sufficient for us to regard the 2270.00 Hidden Pivot resistance as conquered, the slight breakout should be regarded as a shot across the bow of bears who might be looking to get short at these levels or to hang onto existing short positions.  They could breathe a little easier if the day's record high at 2273.00 endures and the futures fall beneath 2259.50 on Wednesday. But if buyers instead push this vehicle still higher and close it above 2270.00, that would be warning shorts to dive for cover. There is a corresponding target at 2299.00 for the December contract, in which we hold a single-contract tracking position that is showing a theoretical gain of about $8000 after adjusting for partial profits taken on the way up.  But even if the December futures stall and reverse from 2299.00, the March contract would at that time be trading a decisive 25 points above its 2270.00 target. This would have quite bullish implications into year's end, at least. Traders should use the pattern shown to exploit any further strength Tuesday night or Wednesday. It shows a minor rally target at 2283.75 that can be exploited with a 'mechanical' entry at either the red or green line. If you're unsure about how this tactic works, stay tuned to the chat room, since quite a few subscribers have been actively trading the E-Minis. As always, an easy push past clear Hidden Pivot resistance should be taken as a sign that the trend will continue at least to the next -- in this case to at least 2309.50 (30-minute chart, A= 2075.25 on 11/9;

Switching to the March E-Mini S&P makes clear that it is much closer to a potential major top than the December contract. The latter still has about 30 points of running room before it hits a 2299.00 target, and the stop-loss I've advised for the single contract we still hold (as a tracking position, with a paper gain so far of about $8000) still obtains. However, I will treat the March contract as a separate case, since its chart, which is flashing red, demands no less.  Indeed, the feeble distribution rally to 2264.75 engineered by DaBoyz Sunday night on vaporous volume brought the March contract close enough to the 2270.00 target shown for us to infer that the sensational bull move of 2016 may have climaxed. In any case, I'd be very surprised if the futures were to blow past this number, a major Hidden Pivot resistance. That means I'll be intently focused on the corrective move from Sunday's top, since it has the potential to snowball into something BIG. Short-term traders are advised to shift to a bearish bias, given the fact that a major rally target ten months in gestation has come within 5.25 points of being fulfilled. Since the foregoing is not chiseled in stone, we should allow for an alternative scenario, as follows: If the March futures were to push decisively past 2270.00 in the next 3-4 days, that would signal more upside to the 2308.25 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of an ABC pattern projecting as high as 2403.25 (Daily chart, A=1796.20 on 2/11/16): B=2176.50 on 8/23/16; and C=2023.00). More immediately, however, traders should focus on the 15-minute chart, which turned bearishly impulsive Monday with a 2246.75 print at 12:15 p.m. (Note: The hourly chart is still positive and would need a print at 2227.50 to turn

The four-contract tracking position initially acquired on December 4 at 2185.75 has been reduced by profit taking to a single contract with an effective cost basis of 2087.25. The futures have since shredded their way past Hidden Pivots at 2040.25 and 2050.00 that we might have expected to show more pluck. Be that as it may, a 2299.00 rally target now obtains. We'll shift to an even higher one at 2417.50 if and when 2299.00 is obliterated, but for now the lower number can be used to manage the risk of the open trade. From this point forward, I'll suggest a 'dynamic' trailing stop with the 2299.00 objective held in mind.  This means that as you trail the stop-loss on the way up, you should shrink it so that you are never risking more than $1 to make $3. To illustrate, based on Friday's intraday high at 2261.25, you should be using a trailing stop of 12.75 points, or a third of what you stand to gain if the futures reach the 2299.00 target. Thus, based on the 2261.25 high, you would exit the position if the futures fell back to 2248.50. If on Monday the December contract were to continue higher -- to, say, 2271.00 -- from which peak there would be 28 points of theoretical potential profit remaining, your trailing stop would be a third of that, or 9.25 points, and you would therefore exit the remaining contract on a pullback to 2261.75. Above 2285.00, you can substitute an 'impulsive' stop, provided you are familiar with this tactic. That would increase your chances of exiting at the target rather than being shaken out just beneath it due to the relatively minuscule 'dynamic' stop required as the futures close on 2299.00. Trading note: With 31 points of upside potential

It's always exciting to watch the S&Ps steal up on an important Hidden Pivot target that has been months in coming. This time there were two of them, at 2240.25 and 2250.00 respectively. When the dust settled on Thursday, the futures had slightly exceeded the latter with an intraday high at 2251.50. The pullback that followed was barely a retracement, however, and that's why I hesitate to infer that the TrumpSanta rally is over. If not, there is yet one more target of immediate consequence left -- at 2299.00 (see inset). The problem is, if the futures get there, the Dow Industrials would be trading at 20,000, which is 273 points above the very highest target I'd allowed for this run-up. How do I reconcile the discrepancy? My instinct is to assume that the Dow is headed to 20,000, and the E-Mini S&Ps to 2299.00. That would put them back in synch of a sort -- i.e., at round-number resistance with the heft to stop a bull that has been charging hard since 2009.  And what if the Dow blithely blows past 20,000? I'd have to side, at least until my technical indicators tell me otherwise, with lunatic-fringe bulls who seem to think 20,000 will provide just another launching pad rather than daunting resistance. My E-Mini S&P target at that point would be 2417.50 --equivalent to around Dow 21000. And above that? More than likely, we'd be looking at four more years of the Trumpster. (Trading note: Our tracking position still holds one of four contracts originally acquired for 2185.75. Imputing partial profits booked on the way up yields a cost basis of 2087.25 and a theoretical gain on the trade of about $8000 so far.)

We hold two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2149.25. That's what remains of a four-contract tracking position established Sunday evening when moderate weakness permitted a 'mechanical' buy at 2185.75. I subsequently recommended closing out half of the position if the futures hit 2223.75.  Yesterday's powerful surge to 2241.25 provided an easy opportunity to do so, yielding a paper gain on the position of a little more than $7000 so far.  We're using  a 2299.50 target, but I'll recommend exiting a third contract if the futures hit 2248.00, just below a lesser but still significant Hidden Pivot target (see inset) that has the potential to reverse the bullish tide, if only temporarily. If it doesn't, we'll still have one contract left to swing for the fences -- in this case 2299.50. I have yet to hear from any subscribers who did the trade, but I created a tracking position nevertheless so that I could be on-record with a position that looked like a high-odds bet.  I also wanted to provide specific Hidden Pivot levels and a target that would allow subscribers to get long belatedly at any point along the way. ________ UPDATE (Dec 8, 1:30 p.m.): A rally to 2250.25 this morning has allowed us to exit the third contract for 2248.00, as suggested above. Imputing the theoretical, $3100 gain to the remaining contractor will effectively lower its cost basis to 2087.25. At current levels, the total paper profit on the position works out to $8012

Last week ended with a whimper, but not before generating a 'mechanical' buy signal at 2185.75 on the intraday charts. Although no subscribers reported having done the trade, I'm going to establish a four-contract tracking position anyway just to have it on the record.  Since the 2147.50 stop-loss this gambit requires implies theoretical entry risk of $1913 per contract, I'll recommend doing the trade belatedly only if using a 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive' set-up on the 15-minute chart or lower. There's no rush, since, presumably, there will be myriad opportunities to get on board between here and the target at 2299.75 with far less risk.  If it is achieved and partial profits are taken according to our rules at p and p2, the position would produce a total profit of $13,300. The target is significantly higher than the one at 2250 that has served as a bullish lodestar in recent weeks. I've used the higher target anyway because the underlying ABC pattern is a personal favorite. Specifically, although the ABC part of it happens quickly, C-D is so elongated that chartists who use ABC or Gartley 1-2-3 patterns tend to lose sight of the finish line. We, on the other hand, will see the pattern and its target confirmed if the rally stalls precisely at p (assuming the futures get there). This is a damn-the-torpedoes 'mechanical' trade, since my gut feeling is that the S&Ps are very vulnerable to a swoon-or-worse. Which is to say, the target is a lot more bullish than I am.  But if the same set-up were to take shape on the five-minute chart, and if it entailed, say, $250 of entry risk, I'd be in love with this trade. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 6:50 p.m.): Offer two contracts g-t-c to close at 2223.75, the midpoint Hidden

A moderate, two-day decline has disconcerted the bullish picture somewhat, as a glance at the hourly chart makes clear (see inset). The extremely tedious, albeit relentless uptrend that has persisted for three weeks has begun to roll down from record highs.  Virtually all bull markets end this way: with an innocuous-looking  abcd downtrend that is discernible only on the lesser charts.  The selling could easily start to snowball, since there are only two prior lows of significance to break the fall of the E-Minis. Most immediately, there is 2147.75, the bottom of a shallow, post-election retracement whence the ratcheting, November dirge began.  And then there is the 2078.25 election-night low itself, a 110-point fall from these levels that would be equivalent to a 1000-point drop in the Dow.  There is nothing in particular to suggest that such a plunge is imminent, but we'll want to keep a close eye on this vehicle nonetheless if it exceeds the 2183.50 target of the so-far minor downtrend shown. Perceptions can change quickly when it is institutional lunatics and their vaunted algorithms doing the trading. Under the circumstances, the huge expanse of white space beneath the frail Hidden Pivot support at 2183.50 could start to look perilous in a relative blink of an eye.