Even with a running start and light volume in the early going, the futures were unable to reach the very modest rally target at 2216.00 that I'd flagged for Wednesday. After seven days of flailing around, it's tempting to say that something's gotta give, and soon. Trying to imagine exactly what might happen is another matter. Clearly, the election shock that briefly energized the stock market has ceased to be a factor. It is headed higher anyway, however, according to some very clear evidence on the charts. Hidden Pivot analysis suggests this vehicle should reach a minimum 2240.50, or perhaps 2250.00, by year's end. Notice how the ballistic bounce from election night's panic-stricken low went on to demolish the 2134.50 'midpoint' pivot with ease. Typically, this kind of price action indicates that the target is very likely to be achieved. For trading purposes, it also implies that a pullback to the pink line, a secondary Hidden Pivot at 2187.50, would generate a buy signal requiring a stop-loss at 2169.75. There are ways to cut the implied $900 entry risk by as much as 90%, and we can apply them if and when the time comes. In the meantime there is no point in trying to guess what might re-activate buyers. That they believe in Santa Claus is clear enough from the historical record.
E-Mini S&P
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2203.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksI've flagged two rally targets well above these levels, but buyers seem in no hurry to get there. Tuesday's constipated price action did in fact generate a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 2196.00, on the pullback at day's end to the green line. However, I'd suggest waiting for a better opportunity -- preferably one that doesn't require babysitting the position overnight as is the case here. If the futures waft higher in the dead of night, exceeding the midpoint pivot at 2206.13 by more than a couple of points, look for more buoyancy and a push to the very modest 2216.00 target shown.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2200.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe previous chart showed a rally target of moderate importance at 2250.00 derived from a low recorded on November 9. Here's an alternative target at 2240.50 that comes from a larger pattern (see inset). There is yet one more target at 2299.00 that is also in play from an even bigger bullish pattern. The important thing to note here is that the uptrend has demolished midpoint Hidden Pivot resistances associated with each of the targets, implying there is still quite a bit of power pushing the 'Trump rally.' Swing traders are therefore advised to position from the long side, especially those of you who plan to go short against the trend - tightly stopped, as always -- at any of the three benchmarks noted above. We'll be looking intraday for more-nuanced opportunities, presumably with risk held to a minimum, so stay close to the chat room if you want to stay apprised in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:30 p.m.): Monday's little sturm und drang did nothing to alter the outlook given above. Day trading opportunities will remain catch-as-catch-can.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2200.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksWe started the day with an aging, 2205.25 rally target that has eluded bulls for nearly a week. The futures rose moderately to 2203.00 early in the session, but repeated attempts to cover the last inch were unsuccessful. Assuming buyers get there today, two targets I've aired here before that come from larger patterns will be in play. The first lies at 2240.50; the second, at 2250.00. Either would be a logical place for the bull to catch its breath, but if neither shows much stopping power, that would imply significantly higher prices are likely. In the meantime, the green, red and pink lines can be used to generate 'mechanical' entry signals. This entails placing bids at each line after it has been comfortably exceeded for a few bars. The entry risk for these trades is relatively high in comparison to other types of penny-pinching entry tactics we use, such a 'counterintuitive' and 'camouflage' entries, but it is the 'mechanical' signal itself that is valuable for purposes of timing entries for optimal ease.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2193.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe futures are on their way to at least 2205.25, the rally target of the pattern shown. It's the most conservative price objective that can be inferred from the hourly chart, with ABC coordinates that have been confirmed by some very precise hits at the midpoint pivot, 2187.00. The pullback on Friday to the green line was a 'mechanical' buy, as would be a pullback to the red line now. A 2181.00 stop-loss would be required for this trade, but you can eliminate as much as 95% of the implied $300 initial risk per contract by using a 'camouflage' entry trigger. Ask in the chat room when appropriate if you'd like to know more about this.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2181.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksStocks supposedly got a little lift from whatever it was Yellen said, but it wasn't much. Even so, the E-Mini S&Ps remain on-track for an ascent to the 2250.00 target shown. Keep in mind that there is a 2040.50 target as well, a Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a bullish ABC pattern of much larger degree. Taken together, the two levels should offer daunting resistance, even if the futures will by then be trading in the thin air of record highs. Traders who are still on the sidelines can use a pullback to the green line, stop 2147.50, to get long 'mechanically' for a shot at 2250.00. However, substituting a 'camouflage'-type entry is the best way to reduce by as much as 90% the implied initial risk of $1300 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 10:24 pm. EST): The futures have been rising with a slope so subtle over the last six sessions that it doesn't deserve to be called a rally. If they were to fall by 20-30 points this week, my gut feeling is that this would be a buying opportunity. Whatever the case, it feels like something's got to give -- whether up or down -- over the next few days.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2175.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe pattern shown is the one to use if you're masochist enough to trade this dirge. The futures have made zero headway over the past week, challenging the patience of all but the nimblest scalpers. Despite the lack of upward progress, the December contract tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal when it fell back to the green line on Wednesday. Since the implied entry risk with a stop-loss below point 'C' would be almost $1300 per contract, I'd suggest whittling it down to size using a 'camouflage' set-up on charts of 5-minute degree or less. Tune to the chat room for guidance in real time, since there are a few traders who have been following this vehicle closely.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2179.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe futures spent the entire day meandering toward the unambitious target of the pattern shown. I've added a tiny ABC notation that captures a beautiful 'camouflage' set-up that occurred early in the session. It was worth an $800 ride on initial risk of about $150. So now what? The futures could stall here, but bears shouldn't count on it. The next leg up should hit 2188.61, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a D target at 2202.31. Night owls can try getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to the midpoint pivot, 2175.25, stop 2166.75. Here are the coordinates on the 15-minute chart if you want to recreate the pattern: A=2125.50 (11/9 at 10:30 a.m. ET); B=2180.50 (11/10); and C=2147.75. If you don't mind a little work, you could cut the entry risk 90% or more by using a 'camouflage' trigger on the lesser charts after a retracement to 2175.25.
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2160.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksBuyers couldn't get altitude on Friday, but neither did they give up much ground. There's a rally of as much as 90 points in the offing, but the futures will first need to get past a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 2199.00 that lies 40 points above (see inset). They tripped a theoretical buy signal by touching the green line, but there was no reason to have gone home long over the weekend after a day of churning, especially when there was not enough price action above the green line to set up a 'mechanical' trade there. Under the circumstances, we'll have to wait and see what Sunday night brings. Stay close to the chat room if you want to be closely apprised of any opportunities that develop in real time..
ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2167.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksFriday's tired price action did nothing to diminish the powerfully bullish look of the pattern shown, which projects to as high as 2250. Using the hourly chart, I've labeled two peaks that could conceivably enable a low-risk, camouflage entry. They lie respectively at 2164.50 and 2178.50, and I've sketched an ideal set-up for using them to get aboard. A point 'B' high occurring in the 14-point gap between the two is what we should look for. If this occurs and you're interested in doing the trade, tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time


