E-Mini S&P

Bulls seem to have about as much enthusiasm for this market as, well, bears. A case of kick me, beat me, bore me to death while I stare at my monitor all day. We expected precious little of this vehicle yesterday -- only that it vault p2=2118.25 to signal more upside to a modest target at 2137.25 that has grown as stale as week-old bread. In retrospect, getting short wasn't exactly easy either. Only nimble day traders need apply, but please note that the 2137.25 rally objective remains valid. For all of you pivoteers, it is probably best approached via a 'mechanical' entry.

The bullish pattern shown implies a 45 point rally lies ahead, with a move precisely to 2161.00, the pattern's Hidden Pivot target. This outlook should not be regarded as a done deal, since the futures have yet to push decisively past the p2 pivot at 2127.00. But the fact that this resistance contained the last rally exactly, and that the p pivot at 2093.00 did the same the first time it was hit, strongly confirms that we are using the right pattern to come up with a potentially important top. To get long, I'd suggest using an ABC uptrend extrapolated from the 15-minute chart (or less) if and when the futures pull back from 2-3 points above 2127.00.

The pattern shown, with a Hidden Pivot rally target at 2137.25 that is still valid, is ancient history. However, this number is the only useful short-term target we've got, and just because it has taken two full weeks for the futures to get near it is no reason not to exploit it if possible. A mechanical 'buy' is the appropriate way to get aboard, implying a bid at 2118.25, stop 2112.25, once the futures have surpassed p2 by perhaps 6-8 points and lingered above it for 3-4 bars.

As expected, the futures pulled back on Friday after topping two ticks above a middling Hidden Pivot rally target a day earlier. The selloff was a little stronger than I'd anticipated, exceeding a 2101.25 correction target by four points. This occurred after the futures had bounced five points from 2101.00, implying that subscribers could have profited from both the long and short side of the day's ups and (mostly) downs. Looking ahead, Sunday night owls can use the small corrective pattern shown to try bottom-fishing against the trend. Although the weakness could continue, you need risk no more than three ticks on a stop-loss beneath bids at p, p2 or d.  That last pivot is the least risky place to put your bid, but keep in mind that it also gives you the highest odds of missing the turn. _______ UPDATE (2:10 a.m. EDT): The futures gapped higher when they opened Sunday night, negating my instructions. The rally projected to at least 2118.25, or to 2137.25 if any higher.  (Note: These numbers correct an erroneous sequence of targets given here earlier. The correct pattern begins with A=2050.00 on May 7. Notice that the pullback to p=2099.00 on Friday was a 'mechanical' buy.) A decisive breach to the upside of 2118.25 would imply that further progress to 2137.25 has become an odds-on bet.

A 2118.75 rally target disseminated Thursday morning would have allowed subscribers to get short two ticks off the intraday high. Based on an initial position of four contracts, I recommended covering half at 2115.25 and a third contract at 2111.25.  The remaining contract was to have been tied to an 'impulsive' stop-loss on the one-minute chart. This means it would have been exited at 2115.50 at around 2:54 p.m. EDT. The total theoretical gain on the trade was 17.25 points, or $862. The 2119.25 high fulfilled a rally target that had been three days in coming, so we should expect the futures to take a breather for perhaps a day or two.  If buyers forge higher to close out the week, however, they should be presumed headed to the 2137.25 Hidden Pivot shown. Assuming this vehicle behaves as usual, the best time of day to grab a  ride north would be around 4:00 a.m. Night owls and traders in the European time zone should plan accordingly.

As predicted, the easiest trade of the day came yet again in the dead of night. Specifically, the futures dove 18 points after topping exactly-to-the-tick at a 2096.50 Hidden Pivot resistance I'd flagged here yesterday in an annotated chart. I erred in predicting the opportunity would trigger at 4:00 a.m., when traders shift their venue from Europe to the U.S. But the bottom line is unchanged in that nearly every trade worth doing in this vehicle is occurring when only a relative handful of U.S. traders are awake to take advantage. This one could have been worth as much as $875 per contract to insomniacs in the U.S. Since only one Rick's Picks subscriber belatedly reported having done the trade, I have not established a tracking position. But traders in time zones east of New York should monitor my index-future touts closely, since they often provide opportunities far juicier than the ones we've been seeing during regular market hours. Concerning yesterday's nitwit histrionics, brought on by whatever Yellen is thought to have said, they left a 2107.75 rally target broached here earlier intact. Because it has been confirmed by the precise pullback from p2=2096.50, you could short it with a very tight stop-loss. Officially, however, I am recommending the trade only if you have been long on the way up. Based on a current price of 2088.25, that would imply profit potential of as much as $487 per contract -- quite a cushion for any stop-loss you use to get short. _______ UPDATE (11:24 a.m. EDT):  Buyers blew past 2107.75, putting the 2113.25 target of a larger pattern in play. The futures topped there moments ago, but if they push past it, the next stop would likely be 2118.75.  Since that could well be the end of the line for

The pattern shown should take the guesswork out of Wednesday's session, although you might have to be glued to your monitor at 4 a.m. to take advantage. That's when the action shifts from European markets to the U.S., and lately it has been the only time of day when relatively 'easy' trade set-ups have materialized. Short the 2107.75 target with a stop-loss as tight as 2109.00 if you've been long for at least a part of the ride up. ______ UPDATE (3:48 p.m. EDT): What a shocker! Today's by-now obligatory reversal occurred at 5 a.m. rather than at 4:00!  Subscribers should not have been surprised when the sharp reversal -- an 18-pointer worth as much as $900 per contract to those who got short -- came from 2096.50 exactly (p2 on the chart I'd drawn).

The futures have been fairly predictable lately, even if the best trade of the day based on yesterday's guidance would have entailed getting short at 4 a.m. EDT. Just as predictable was that a flurry of selling early in the session would dry up, and that the subsequent rally would claw back most of the losses but no more. All of this repetitious tedium left the 2054.50 correction target given here earlier intact, even if the futures have shown no great eagerness to get there. The target can still be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point, although I wouldn't suggest trying to get short for the ride south by offering contracts a second time at the 2080.50 midpoint pivot. Better to do so 'mechanically' by using the 2070.00 midpoint of the small downtrend shown.  Alternatively, a push exceeding the peak marked with a red x would be bullish and represent a possible buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (9:31 a.m. EDT): The shorting opportunity was negated when the futures fell to within 1.25 points of the pattern's 'D' target overnight.

It's early Sunday night, and DaBoyz have hammered this vehicle down the equivalent of 100 Dow points. This isn't bearish per se; rather, it is a tightly controlled test to see how far stocks will need to fall before sellers have been exhausted. My hunch is that the futures may have to drop a further eight points or so, to at least 2064.00, before the usual suspects can buy stocks without fear of more weakness before they can unload. Bears shouldn't get their hopes too high in any case, since there are two 'structural' supports that would get in the way of an unmitigated selloff: last week's low at 2061.25, and the key May low at 2050.00. If it gets that bad, I'll recommend bottom-fishing at 2054.75 nevertheless (presumably reversing a profitable short-position).  That's a clear and well-located Hidden Pivot that's worth a 1.00-point stop-loss.