E-Mini S&P

I don't usually tout hunches, but I'm given to imagine there is one last hurrah left in the aging bull. Before this can happen, however, I would expect the broad averages to breach their mid-March lows in order to get a running start at new record highs.  One reason I think this will prove so is that I can scarcely imagine the biggest bull market of them all ending with something so visually anticlimactic as the ostensible topping pattern shown. Still, it takes imagination to believe that stocks will be making new record highs in April, when corporate earnings reports for Q1 are due to be released. Big companies that were hit hard by the strong dollar in Q4 of 2014 would have taken an even bigger hit in Q1 2015, since the dollar has rallied sharply since then. Under the circumstances, we might look for weakness in the coming weeks that pushes stocks lower, but without collapsing them.  More immediately, the corrective rally begun on Thursday looked bound for the 2063.50 target shown, albeit with enough difficulty to raise doubts about whether the target will be reached at all. Regardless, Sunday night-owls seeking to catch a piece of the implied ride north should seek opportunity on charts of 5-minute degree or less, since there is too much implied risk in trusting  larger patterns. If you'd rather try to short into whatever strength surfaces Sunday night or Monday morning, I'd suggest taking the first downtrending ABC pattern on a chart of two-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (9:44 a.m. EDT): For whatever reason, stock are up today. My guess is that Wall Street likes the impending deal with Iran, since a nuclear race in the Middle East will be good for companies that sell centrifuges and reactors. Anyway, stocks are

The futures are up the equivalent of about 70 Dow points late Thursday night, having pushed past a 2053.25 target that I'd flagged in the chat room intraday. It took about 90 minutes of head-butting for buyers to accomplish this, but the payoff could come in the form of a rally Friday to 2069.00 or higher. That’s a Hidden Pivot resistance, and traders should consider its attainment an odds-on bet if this vehicle pushes past the 2057.75 midpoint pivot.  Night owls can try a mechanical entry after the futures have traded 2059.75 or higher. A pullback to 2057.75 could be bought ‘mechanically’ with a stop-loss at 2054.00. If you use the 'camouflage' technique instead, you can step up the size. ______ UPDATE (9:19 a.m.): The futures stalled exactly at the 2057.75 midpoint, so there was no trade.

I have mixed thoughts about what the stock market might do over the next 3-5 weeks, and in order to remain coldly objective, I'll put the emphasis for now on technical indicators. First, however, and for the record, let me air my gut feeling that a rally to marginal new record highs will put a final top on the bull market begun exactly six years ago. The rally could start now or in late April, but probably not in-between, since Q1 earnings announcements coming in April could get nasty. More immediately, the futures will have a chance to reverse yesterday's sharp decline from 2042.75, a Hidden Pivot support associated with the steepest segments of Wednesday's selloff (20-minute, A=2084.50 at 11:20 a.m.; B= 2060.25).  As long as the bounce comes from above 2037.25, we can use the large pattern shown to project a target for the next rally.  Alternatively, the selloff would wreak heavy technical damage on the daily chart if it continues over the next day or two, exceeding 2029.00 to the downside without an intervening rally lasting more than a day. _______ UPDATE (3:10 a.m. EDT): The markets have caught a whiff of fear from the Middle East, sending gold moderately higher and pushing this vehicle down to within 1.50 points of the 2042.75 target. The support is too fragile to take much punishment, and if it gives way we should brace for more slippage to 2019.25 (20-min, A= 2089.25 on 3/25 at 9:40 a.m.; B= 2052.25 on 3?25 at 4:20 p.m.; CC= 2056.25). A stall or bounce at the 2037.75 midpoint pivot would confirm that target.

So much for 'easy' rally targets. Both of the ones given here yesterday are still valid in theory, but we'll set aside the lesser one at 2024.00, since the minor pattern that produced it is getting a bit long in the tooth. That leaves a more important target at 2126.50 remaining to be achieved; however, I expect lower prices over the near term, since yesterday's weakness exceeded 2083.75, the lowermost target that I could have projected using the intraday charts (see inset).

Price action over the last two days has been unimpressive, to put it mildly. Friday's feeble short squeeze failed to surpass a technically important peak at 2107.75 recorded on March 2, and a second try yesterday failed once again.  Our immediate goal is still to get short if and when the futures achieve a marginal new record high. However, at the rate things are going, it may require patience.  Yesterday's rally failed to complete a minor rally pattern to 2124.00, but I'm going to introduce a 2126.50 target today that comes from a larger pattern that doesn't look as tired. We'll plan on getting short there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but I may be able to improve the odds with real-time guidance and 'camouflage' tactics.  This could conceivably entail getting long for the ride to the target. If successful we would use any profits thereof to cushion a wider stop-loss on the short. Stay tuned to the chat room if interested.

The bottom-fishing foray I'd suggested at 2080.50 (basis the March contract) on Friday was not to be, since the futures pulled back no lower than 2085.00 intraday. The bounce that ensued left the futures in good position for a shot on Monday at new record highs. Specifically, if buyers push energetically above the 2100.25 midpoint pivot shown, they should be deemed capable of a further push to its D sibling at 2124.00. Subscribers will already know that I've been eager to short any promising Hidden Pivot above the old high. This one is exactly what I had in mind, so I will neither drum roll it here, nor disseminate it publicly, nor mention it in the chat room (although I would encourage subscriber to do so quietly). This pivot is your baby, to use as you see fit. Of course, you will able to sell short at 2124.00 much more aggressively if you have caught at least a part of the implied 24-point ride to it.

Yesterday's dirge turned Wednesday's short-squeeze into dud. I don't foresee the downtrend picking up much steam as the week ends, however, and so I'll suggest bottom-fishing at the 2080.50 Hidden Pivot support shown. A three-tick stop-loss can be used initially, but you'll be on your own if the trade goes in-the-black. Upside potential would be to the 'D' target of the larger pattern begun from Wednesday's low. The target is more likely to work precisely if the move down to it is straightforward and happens during the night session.

Yet another dollop of meaningless drivel from the Fed impelled stocks sharply higher on Wednesday, goosing this vehicle to a 2107.75 peak that exceeded my rally target by six points.  The announcement, something to the effect that the Fed would be less 'patient' about implementing a rate hike, was not only semantic garbage, it was also yesterday's news, since the policy change -- that's what the Street and the news media evidently are calling it -- was first floated by the spinmeisters in February.  However, the inconvenient fact that it was stale news didn't stop DaBoyz from triggering off a short squeeze highlighted by a 400-point reversal in the Dow. When big moves happen for stupid reasons, or for no reason at all, I like to fade the trend. Being an unsentimental sort, however, I would expect Mr. Market to take the S&Ps to at least a marginal new all-time high before He pulls the plug. We won't be looking to short the Mother of All Tops, mind you -- that might be as high as 2228.25 -- just to short "a" top that could conceivably be important. In that regard, the nearest Hidden Pivot that looks promising is the one at 2135.25 shown, equivalent to a further Dow rally of about 250 points.  I've set an alert there and will provide real-time guidance if the Hidden Pivot is hit during regular hours when I'm in the chat room.  Keep in mind that if bulls blow past 2135.25 with ease, a new target at 2182.50 would be in play.

The S&Ps and the Dow went their separate ways yesterday -- and what was that all about?  Since Apple moved higher with the blue chips, we'll give bulls the slight benefit of the doubt ahead of Wednesday's Fed-palooza.  The uptrending pattern shown projects to 2101.75, equivalent to a 220-point Dow rally, but that doesn't seem like much if the Fed is going to renege on its quasi-pseudo-crypto, sort-of pledge to raise rates. Whatever you believe is coming, I wouldn't bet too heavily on it ahead of the announcement. _______ UPDATE (3:44 p.m.):  Impelled by the latest drivel from the Fed, the trade-desk chimps have overshot my 2101.75 target by a few points. The so-far peak of today's irrational exuberance occurred at 2107.75.