E-Mini S&P

Conflicting news about Greece drove index futures batty for a while Wednesday evening. Immediately after the day-session close, the E-Mini S&Ps took off on mistaken news that Greece had accepted Germany’s bailout terms. The ensuing 18-point rally spiked to 2079.50, just inches from the 2081.25 target we’d been using for the last couple of days. Armed with that Hidden Pivot, a dead-eyed subscriber in the chat room reported getting short at the top, calling it “the quickest buck I have ever made”. The plunge he was able to leverage was good for a 20-point ride, but the futures have bounced a little since, even though it is now official that Greece and Europe still don’t have a deal. Will we be able to stand the suspense until Monday, when the talks resume? Since we have higher targets outstanding, my hunch is that something that at least looks and quacks like a deal will be announced next week. Greece and Wall Street may celebrate the announcement if and when it comes, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves that whatever has transpired will allow Greece to come off the respirator. In fact, and as we well know, nothing of substance will have changed.

The 2059.25 target that I put out Monday night caught the top of a 16-point plunge within single tick, but only one subscriber claimed to have gotten short there. Once the subsequent low was made around mid-morning at 2043.25, DaBoyz applied the old squeezeroonie and maintained pressure on bears for the remainder of the session. They left room, however, for a further run-up on Wednesday to the 2081.75 target shown -- the same Hidden Pivot that we used yesterday as a minimum price objective. Night owls can use a pullback to the midpoint pivot at 2059.25 to get long, but if you initiate the trade 'mechanically' I'd suggest buying just a single contract, since the implied stop-loss would be at 2051.50 (yikes!). As always, a 'camouflage' entry would be the best, although not necessarily easiest, way to get aboard.

Monday's weakness was unpersuasive even though it looked 'organic' rather than staged. When the dust settled, sellers had failed to push the futures down to a modest Hidden Pivot support at 2032.75 (see inset). That is ever-so-mildly bullish. I won't hazard much of a prediction for Monday night or Tuesday, but because the 2032.75 target remains valid, you can try bottom-fishing there -- just one contract -- with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. Alternatively, if the futures don't take out Monday's low overnight, look for a rally to at least p=2059.25 based on the large pattern shown. Any significant progress above that Hidden Pivot would portend more upside over the near term to as high as 2081.75. _______ UPDATE (9:32 a.m.): My 2059.25 target caught the top of a 17-point rally overnight within a single tick. The subsequent pullback so far has been 16 points, so the target could have produced a substantial gain for longs,  shorts, or both. If you still hold a position based on the above, please let me know in the chat room and I will establish a tracking position.

Predicting this vehicle's schizoid behavior is like trying to hit a knuckleball -- which is to say, don't blink or you'll get beaned. Late Sunday night, the E-Minis appeared to be making their way down to the 2033.25 target shown. Ordinarily, I would infer from the price action at the midpoint pivot that further downside to D is a done deal. In this instance, however, I'll merely suggest that you bottom-fish with a tight stop-loss if and when it gets there.  Keep in mind that about eight times out of ten, when DaBoyz manipulate index futures lower on a Sunday night, it means they're planning to goose them higher in the morning. Alternatively, please note that a pop above 2047.50 in the wee hours would be bullishly impulsive and reason to shift your bias from (very) short-term bearish to bullish.  We still hold a tracking position consisting of a single contract with a cost basis of 1998.00. For now, be ready to stop yourself out of the position on a swoon today that exceeds 2020.75 without an upward correction on the 60-minute chart.

Thursday's rally encountered little resistance, although it still failed by a few points to reach the minor Hidden Pivot target at 2063.00 shown in the chart. Barring any world-shaking news, we should expect this resistance to give way Thursday night or early Friday, and for the futures to continue toward a 2096.00 target that was first mentioned here two weeks ago when the futures were trading around 2011. There is one spot along the way where you should look for a possibly significant pullback: 2086.25. This Hidden Pivot could repel the rally with enough force to be shortable. If you attempt it, a 2087.25 stop-loss is recommended. We've held a tracking position from near the lows with a cost basis reduced by profit-taking along the way to 1098.00. The very wide stop-loss I'd advised survived Wednesday's nearly 30-point swoon, so we are effectively committed to a swing for the fences. Accordingly, I'll suggest tightening the stop-loss only slightly by using an impulse leg on the hourly chart. This implies that you should exit if the futures  plunge below the 'external' low at 2021.00 recorded Tuesday on the way up.

There's no such thing as a market too crazy to day-trade, but this one is getting close. I put out  a 2048.75 rally target in the chat room yesterday afternoon with the futures trading about six points lower. Several subscribers jumped on it and thanked me a few minutes later when the E-Minis popped to 2049.25. But even before we'd finished high-fiving each other, the futures plunged in a mere minute to 2030.25, on their way to a so-far low Wednesday night of 2021.75. (Note: My downside target then, and now, is 2017.75. It can be bottom-fished overnight with a tight stop-loss.) I view the plunge as just another sleazy shakedown, since it was triggered by news that the EU plans to curtail borrowing by Greece. The story shouldn't have touched off any alarms, since the recent electoral victory of leftist lunatics in Greece effectively cleared the country's path to bankruptcy. The fact that U.S. stocks dove anyway suggests it was just a brazen manipulation by the child molesters, father rapers and mother stabbers who run the game. A further, unintentionally funny note on Greece yesterday came in the form of this headline atop the Wall Street Journal's lead story: Investor Optimism Grows on Greece. We've seen this headline, or something like it, many times since the global financial meltdown of 2007-08, often in connection with that other basket case, Spain. Don't these bozos ever learn?

Late Tuesday night, the futures were consolidating above a minor Hidden Pivot rally target at 2039.00, implying they're developing thrust for an imminent push to the next, at 2048.50.  These targets should be viewed in the context of a bigger-picture target at 2096.00 noted here earlier (see inset). Because some subscribers reported getting long on the basis of yesterday's tout, I've established a tracking position for your further guidance: a single contract with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 1998.00.  For now, we'll manage the risk of a swing for the fences with an impulsive stop-loss drawn from the hourly chart. Specifically, you should exit the position on a plunge that hits 2006.75 today. Keep in mind that to trigger the stop, the move would have to be uncorrected on the hourly chart from the time an external low at 2018.00 (9:00 a.m. EST Tuesday)  is exceeded to the downside.

Yesterday's short squeeze from out-of-the-blue was attributed by pundits to trader ebullience over the recent rise in oil prices (or some such thing). Whatever its reason, the rally exceeded the highest Hidden Pivot target I could have projected intraday from Monday's 1973.75 low, suggesting more strength is coming. When minor targets are exceeded and we are in search of a new one, my technical rules call for zooming out to an ABC rally pattern of higher degree. The logical and obvious one began on January 15 with a 1970.25 point 'A' low and projects to as high as 2066.00 over the near term (see inset). The key obstacle between here and there is the 2020.00 midpoint pivot, shown in the chart as a red line, but once the futures have traded above it by at least 2.00 points, I'd infer that a finishing stroke to the 2066.00 target is an odds-on bet. Traders looking to get long,  particularly night owls who might see the trade triggered in the wee hours, should use a breakout pattern like the one I've sketched hypothetically to jump aboard. _______ UPDATE (11:03 a.m. EST): A pattern nearly identical to the one I'd sketched tripped a buy signal at 2020.50. The futures went on to exceed the 2034.00 target by two ticks. Those who did the trade by-the-book would now be long a single contract from an original position of four, and using a profit-adjusted cost basis of 1098.00. If your results so far are in the ballpark with this, you can swing for the fences with what remains of your position.

In theory, the buy signal I'd noted that was tripped last week at 2005.25 is still valid, since the 1982.00 point 'C' low to which it is tied has yet to be exceeded. Also implied is that longs from the time the 'buy' signal tripped last Thursday could still be long. (Note: I advised exiting the position on Friday, a task that would have produced either a small profit or a moderate loss, depending on when you acted.) The takeaway here is not that we should be bullish, but that we are obliged to acknowledge that the S&P 500, despite all of the crazy swings and swoons of the last six weeks, has yet to break down. As such, there are compelling reasons for being long at these levels, just as there are good reasons to be short. For now, we'll stay on the sidelines unless scalping this vehicle intraday. My gut feeling is that a target I'd noted that lies marginally above December's record highs is still valid and that, moreover, it would be an ideal place for bulls to get trapped as never before. I'm not going to drum-roll the target because I don't want to hex it, but you should check the archived touts for the precise number.