Gold

Subscribers should have exited a profitable long trade using a 1942.30 stop-loss before the futures turned limp on Friday. The fact that a moderately appealing 'mechanical' play didn't work better suggests weakness will be the coming week's theme. But probably not too much of it, since sellers have not shown much gumption either. My gut feeling is that DaBoyz will stop out C=1893.20 before they gratuitously reverse until hopes are high enough to dash yet again.  Set your snooze alarm for 2018.40, a tick above an 'external' peak recorded on March whose breach would signal a bullish resurgence. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 5:04 p.m.): After plunging sharply overnight, the reversal came exactly as anticipated, from a hair below C=1893.20. One subscriber reported making hay with the $13 rally that ensued. The futures spent the rest of the day playing footsies with 'C', leaving me with little more to say at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:55 p.m.): Although June Gold has bounced from precisely where we'd anticipated, the countertrend has been weak. This has activated the bearish pattern shown in this chart, with a D target at 1825.80. It is an odds-on bet to be reached because of the easy with which the downtrend penetrated p=1914.40, then made it resistance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:16 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply off p2=1870.10 of the bearish pattern that projects to 1825.80, delaying a still-likely fall to that number. This has activated Matt's Curse in a bullish way, although I'd need to see the rally surpass 1922.80 before I change my tune.

To alleviate the brutal tedium of gold's dance just beneath my old target, I've created a new, slightly lower target at 1986.40 that has already been achieved. This will not affect the pattern's promise to reward 'mechanical' buyers with relatively low-risk profits, since the tradeable implications of its powerful impulse leg cannot be easily subverted. It will also give us a good chance to catch a potentially tradeable top at D=2079.50 with a high degree of precision. This may take great patience, but the wait will be made more bearable by the knowledge that a nasty swoon would likely spell opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 9:24 a.m.): With just a day's rest, buyers have blown through p=1986.40, all but guaranteeing more upside over the near term to at least p2=2032.90.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 12:56 p.m.): Yes, the pullback to x=1939.80 makes for an appealing 'mechanical' buy'. However, the implied risk of $18,000 risk on four contracts with a stop-loss at 1893.10 warrants doing the trade only if you are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers that could pare the theoretical risk down to around $1600. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:48 p.m.): The futures have rallied $20 off a 1941.00 low that missed the green line by a front-run 1.20. If you did the trade, take 25% off at a current 1953.30 and set a 1942.30 stop-loss for what remains. Our price objective for two of the three contracts still held is p=1986.40.

The bull trend begun in February has gone comatose along with the stock market. The timing of the breakout is unpredictable, but look for the futures to ascend quickly to p=1993.20 when it happens. The futures could continue to swing gratuitously $40 either way in the meantime, but any trading opportunities thereof would need to come from the lesser intraday charts.

Gold has sold off hard after peaking three weeks ago at $2082, about 1.8% beneath the all-time high at $2122 recorded in August 2020. Because the pullback has come from the pattern's sweet spot above p=2022, we should be prepared to buy the June futures 'mechanically' if they pull back to the green line.  There's nearly $16,000 per contract of theoretical entry risk, so we will naturally be looking to 'camo' our way aboard in order to cut that down to more like $600-$800. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your account 'Notifications' switched on if you're keen to play.

Gold has rewarded patient bulls with an occasional kick in the teeth and an uptrend that can suddenly  turn into a Bataan march for months on end. The good news is that it has done even worse by bears, demonstrating repeatedly that, try as they may, they cannot suppress strong, persistent demand from all corners of the world in these all-too-interesting times. At present, the April contract is making its way toward a  seemingly inevitable rendezvous with the 1988.50 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. We'll know whether buyers are capable of hitting D=2081.80 once we've seen how they fare on first contact with the midpoint resistance.  Trade with a bullish bias for now, but only with risk tightly controlled using entry set-ups on the lesser charts (a.k.a. 'camouflage'). ______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:22 p.m.): The rally turned to crud well shy of 1988.50 (see above), so the yellow flag is out. My hunch is that the usual scumwads from the bullion banking world  will stop out C=1895.20 before they cease their gratuitous pounding of gold. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:30 p.m.): Although the rally came from a 'too-obvious' place, it evidently caught enough traders by surprise to keep on going. This pattern, which produced a 'mechanical' winner on the pullback to the green line, can tell us if the uptrend will continue if D=1927.70 is decisively breached. It will also work for for an rABC short, using an extremely tight a-b segment. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:09); Yo-te-ho! The futures rallied overnight, topping at exactly 1927.80 (2:25 a.m.), a single tick above the Hidden Pivot target I'd furnished for your trading guidance; then they relapsed to 1916.30 over the next three hours. A short with as tight a stop-loss as two ticks would have survived, and the trade could have

The punitive selloff from the $2078 all-time high recorded on March 8 has generated sufficient downforce to imply that a snap-back rally is unlikely. To be sure, however, let's focus minutely on the lesser charts. The one shown has a corrective target at 1915.10 that was narrowly missed at Friday's low. The target remains viable, but if the so-far-tentative bounce continues, each new peak it surpasses would have increasingly bullish implications.  A key number is 1945.60, the midpoint pivot of a big, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 1973.80. _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 10:50 p.m.): Two days of robust buying has shifted the focus to the bullish pattern shown in this chart. Expect minimum upside to p=1988.50, but if buyers bore through it effortlessly, a possible new all-time high at 2081.50 would come into view.

Gold's feisty comeback on Friday went only far enough to trigger a moderately appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=1991.70). We took a pass nonetheless, since no one wants to go home short gold with war and all-out conflagration threatening Europe. The 1921.60 downside target can still be used, but it would not be unusual for a vehicle that's in a bull market like this one to correct no lower than the secondary pivot, p2 -- in this case 1945.00. Alternatively, a move straightaway through C=2015.10 would be hell-of-bullish. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 1:20 p.m.) Sellers have dismembered the 'hidden' support at p2=1945.00 in order to concentrate on Part II of their plan for tonight: gang rape. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:09 a.m.): The 1921.60 target has caught the exact low to-the-tick of last night's avalanche. Sellers have been mau-mauing the Hidden Pivot this morning, but any bottom-fishing done there so far, regardless of the tactic used, would have made money. If you did a trade using my number and still hold a position, please let me know so that I can determine whether to provide tracking guidance.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:20 a.m.): The Hidden Pivot has finally given way under brutal pounding. Structural support lies near 1890, within a head-and-shoulders pattern that has traced out over the last three weeks. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:45 p.m.): The April contract is still groping for a foothold at the 1921.60 correction target, although the breach of this Hidden Pivot support is not exactly a sign of good health. We'll move to the sidelines for now.

Buyers didn't exactly obliterate the 1944.20 midpoint resistance on their first attempt to get past it last week, but the futures subsequently appeared to pick up strength when they failed to pull back to the green line (x=1911.40) to gift us with a 'mechanical' long. The implication is that the futures are bound for D=2009.75 and all but certain to achieve it.  A pullback to p=1944.20 first would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 1922.30. We can cut the risk down to size in real time, so be sure to tune to the chat room for further guidance when the futures get close to the target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:54 a.m. EST): Gold has topped overnight (when else?) a tenth of a percent from the $2009.75 target flagged above. Using the visual technique I detailed in the chat room last week, this was close enough to have set up a low-risk, reverse-pattern short or a precise exit from a long. Anyone do the trade? In any event, here's the chart.  The so-far low of the reversal is 1964.20, a $43 drop from the high. _____ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:52 a.m.): Ya gotta love the way gold thumbed its nose at the very-round-number resistance, $2000! The next Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 2034.80 within a pattern on the daily chart that dates back to A= 1821.10 (2/11). It will max out at 2066.60 (A=1788.50 on 2/3). _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:42 p.m.): How nice to see gold acting like a FAANG stock!  I've used the highly unconventional pattern shown in this chart to project minimum upside over the near term to 2099.70.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 7:23 a.m.): I've 'discovered' a new pattern that should have been more obvious to me initially and which somewhat changes my outlook for the near

Bears performed so poorly over the last two days that I should have flipped our trading pattern to its bullish doppelgänger yesterday to provide you with a more usable road map. Be that as it may, the April contract looks all but certain to achieve the 1964.00 target shown in the new chart. The pattern has already yielded up one textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line that would have produced an $8,000 profit, but there will be no more such signals unless the futures surprise by diving to the green line again. For now, let's focus on how buyers interact with D=1964.00 on first contact, since an easy and decisive move through it would imply that the good guys, for a change, are likely to remain in charge for a while.