Gold

April Gold's wild gyrations came within an inch of triggering mechanical buy signals twice today at the green line shown in the chart. The trouble is, there was a $10 rally separating them, and the first pop should easily have reached the 'D' target at 1600.50. Instead, after the futures topped $10 shy of it, bulls had to endure a mini-crash at day's end when bullion quotes reflexively dove on a late-afternoon short-squeeze in the broad averages. If the weakness carries into Friday, the futures would become a moderately enticing buy at 1564.60, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern on the 30-minute chart that began on January 8 from 1603.00.  To cut the entry risk down to less than $1 theoretical, I'd suggesting using an rABC pattern where a=1581.60 at 9:00 a.m. on 1/30.

Friday's upswing reflexively mirrored the decline of stocks, triggering a theoretical buy signal at 1573.40 in February Gold. I say 'theoretical' because we seldom use this entry tactic due to its high-risk, low-performance track record. In this case, the implied stop-loss at 1536.30, just below the pattern's point 'C' low, would risk a whopping $3700 per contract. We'll trade the futures with a bullish bias nonetheless, predicated on an expected move to at least p=1610.30.  (A 1732.80 target tied to a bigger pattern is also in play, but we'll stick with the little stuff for the moment in order to manage risk most efficiently and precisely.) In practice, this will entail using mechanical and rABC set-ups as they become manifest each day. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and Coffee House if you care, since there are a dozen Pivoteers in these rooms at any time who can trade the bejeezus out of gold using patterns big, small and in-between to significantly limit risk. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 7:55 a.m. EST): The futures are diving ahead of the opening, evidently despairing over the insane strength of index futures overnight. My hunch is that it could conceivably get worse, but not much, since stocks may already be close to their daily limit for giddiness. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:58 p.m.):  Things did indeed get worse, but not much. Brace yourself for another grin-an-bear-it day if the stock market continues higher. ______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:48 p.m.): Gold benefited from an afternoon selloff in stocks and took a spirited upturn toward 1594.60, the D target of the pattern shown in this chart. (Note: The equivalent target for the just activated April contract is 1600.50, with p=1584.20.)

The futures recovered somewhat after getting knocked down midweek, but not before they'd impaled a 1592.80 midpoint resistance tied to a bull-market target at 1732.50. Odds of reaching so optimistic a benchmark would shorten if the monthly bar finishes above the 1592.80 midpoint pivot. There's little value in speculating about this now, but if the futures pull back to the green line at 1523.00, that would trip a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy signal we can leverage in several ways. For detailed guidance in real time, tune to the chat room if weakness brings the February contract down another $30 or so. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 10:05 p.m.): Buyers have come back to life with a bounce precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. The rally will become interesting if and when it exceeds C=1564.10 of the pattern shown, wrecking the short-term-bearish look of the lesser charts. ______ UPDATE (Jan 21, 8:14 p.m.): It's just like gold to pop above my number, 1564.10, and then to tank. I'd said that such a rally would pique my interest, but I must confess that it has only tested my patience. For now, you can use p=1549.30 shown in this chart to get long a tick above with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If you can convert this to an rABC set-up, it would improve your odds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 22, 9:36 p.m.): Today's marginally higher high created a new point 'C' along with a new midpoint pivot at 1552.70 where you can attempt bottom-fishing. I've labeled a and b coordinates in this chart that would be appropriate for using an rABC set-up to get long, but a 1552.90 bid, stop 1551.90 will suffice, albeit with somewhat more risk. _______ UPDATE (Jan 23, 10:37 p.m.): The recommendation proffered

Friday's steep slide created a robustly bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts that points to as low as 1537.50 over the near term. The futures will have a chance to bounce from 1550.70, a midpoint pivot that you can use to bottom-fish or buy with an rABC set-up. Any lower, especially if the pivot is decisively exceeded, would open a path to the lower target. It's also possible buyers will turn things around without the February contract having reached p. However, that would have no bullish implications until such time as the rally exceeds the 1579.70 'external' peak I've used as the pattern's point 'A'. _____ UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:18 a.m. EST): Panicky sellers drove gold $14 lower in under 30 minutes early Thursday morning, touching a low at 1541.00 that missed my target by $3.50. A subsequent rally to the green line tripped a 'mechanical' short predicated on a 1537.50 target that is still viable. It would take a print  at 1562.50 for bulls to turn things around. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:35 a.m.): Urgent! Here is yet a further update for gold -- a chart that you can use as a road map for the next 2-3 days. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 9:12 p.m.): The short-term outlook has dimmed further with the slow descent toward key support at p=1542.20 (click on the link immediately above to see this). A close beneath it would shorten the odds of further slippage to at least p2=1531.30, or possibly even the 1520.50 target shown in the chart linked in today's earlier update.

Thursday's fleeting upthrust tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line. Ordinarily it would be easy to overlook or ignore it, since buy signals since late August have come to naught. However, gold's price action has been so tedious and frustrating in the interim that we should take extra care to avoid missing the turn when it comes, especially since the impulsive thrust that occurred last summer was so powerful and promising. Most immediately, we'll use p=1529.50 as a minimum upside objective and trade it aggressively. In practice, this will mean looking for rABC and  'mechanical' setups in charts of small degree. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 6:22 p.m. EST): The futures are headed most immediately to 1497.30 (60-min, A=1459.80 in 12/2 at 4:00 a.m.; B=1491.60 (12/12). I expect a stall, possibly tradeable, within two ticks of the target. But if buyers blow past it, that would shorten the odds of reaching p=1529.50, my current minimum objective in a larger pattern. ________ UPDATE (Dec 26, 12:45 a.m.): Buyers handled the 1497.30 resistance with ease, all but clinching more upside to the p=1529.50 target noted above. It was first broached here 11 days ago with Feb Gold trading nearly $40 lower.  An easy push through it would shift our attention to the pattern's 'D' target at 1605.90. This number seemed like pie-in-the-sky when the buy signal triggered on December 12, but it is growing less farfetched by the day. ________ UPDATE (Dec 31, 4:43 a.m.): The futures have hit 1529.00 tonight, effectively fulfilling the target given above. A two-day close above this Hidden Pivot resistance, or an intraday spike to around 1538, would shorten the odds of a further rally to 1605.90. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:24 p.m.): Tensions with Iran have

Gold has disappointed and bullyragged its most devoted fans for more than three months, but it could become an enticing speculative buy as it approaches a key low at 1418.90 recorded back in August. The bearish pattern shown is not the largest among several alternatives, but it shows promise nonetheless to deliver a tradeable bounce at or very near the pattern's 1440.00 target.  I'd prefer to initiate the trade via an rABC pattern, since that's probably the least risky way to catch the falling javelin.  If so, we'll look at using A=1465.40 (from 12/3 at 2:00 a.m.) Stay tuned, however, since the set-up will depend on how easily the downtrend achieves 1440.00, assuming it does. ______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 9:12 a.m. EST): The futures are rallying  moderately even though the S&Ps are slightly higher. This is unusual, so we'll give bulls the slight benefit of the doubt. You can use this pattern to trade the move. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 9:07 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 10:52 p.m.): The pop through p=1478.10 has made the February contract a good bet to reach the 1493.10 target shown. If there's a pullback to X=1470.50 first, ideally in the first half of the session, it would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 1462.90. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 11:23 p.m.): How's that for nasty? Even so, based on reports in the Trading Room, subscribers who got long for a shot at the 1493.10 target got out with a nice profit before the futures reversed precipitously. From a high just $1.50 shy of my target, they dove $36. Overall, the price action was neither bullish nor bearish, just nutty. Gold appears to be biding its time until the stock market cools off and the chimps turn their attention to 'risk-on.' ________ UPDATE (Dec 30, 5:47

Friday's exuberant but inexplicable leap may have felt encouraging at the time, but a chart that goes back a few months makes the rally look far from impressive. Even so, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt for the moment, since the move was indisputably going their way at the closing bell. It would take a print at x=1491.30, the green line, to trip a theoretical buy signal, but only 1474.80 would be needed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That could set up an appealing trading opportunity intraday, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're eager to play. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:05 a.m. EST): The futures have taken wing this morning and appear bound for a minimum 1489.50. If this Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded, bulls could take heart. Here's the updated chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 11:09 p.m.): Buyers should have been able to reach the 1489.50 target shown in this chart on the first try but failed. Disappointment would fade if they get second wind and take out the 1496.30 'external' peak shown, but until such time as that happens we shouldn't get our hopes too high. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 6:14 p.m.): The futures dove $12 after peaking at 1489.90, four ticks above the target flagged above. That is well shy of the 1496.30 I'd said was needed to turn the intraday charts unambiguously bullish.  I'm going to raise the bar a tad just to be cautious, stipulating that the rally achieve 1503.10, just above the external peak shown in this chart, before I ratchet down my skepticism. Incidentally, a Trading Room denizen reported having used the 1489.50 target to get long and exit the position at the top for a nice profit.  He posted as follows: "Exited the

The futures were  slipping below the water line Monday evening, threatening to negate the support of a 1454.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support. It is tied to a 1429.50 target given here earlier, although it's possible the downtrend will go no further than p2=1441.90. The bad news is that that is my minimum downside objective for the near term. Clearly, gold cannot swim upstream, not even a little bit, as the stock market continues its by-now historical wilding spree.  Here's a step-by-step forecast for the next couple of weeks that I posted in the chat room. Let's see how I do: "First, a decisive breach of p=1454.40; then, instead of continuing down to D=1429.50, GCZ reverses sharply to trigger a not-unappetizing mechanical short at x=1466.80. But instead of doing what it is supposed to do -- i.e., delivering a quick profit by plunging to p=1454.40 -- it continues higher, breaking above C=1479.20 to turn everyone bullish. The rally will come within 1.20 of some minor ABCD target; then the uptrend, on an overnight spike as usual, sputters out and dies, reversing punitively." (Note: 1436.10 for the February contract is equivalent to the one at 1429.50.) _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:16 p.m.):  Click here for a play-play scenario that I posted last week; and here for a chart that shows how it would play out for the February contract.  So far, price action has gone more or less according to plan. If you're interested only in the bottom line, Feb Gold could fall to 1436.10, but don't be surprised if the little sonofabitch head-fakes first.  It'd take a print at 1496.40 to rouse my enthusiasm once again.

Gold's recent low at 1446.20 overshot the 1447.50 target shown by just $1.30, which is neither bullish nor bearish. However, the bounce would need to exceed 1489.20 -- or better yet, 1495.90 -- to hint that the correction that has obtained since early September is over. These numbers correspond to external peaks recorded on the hourly chart on, respectively, November 7 and November 6.  Please note that they are not visible on the chart accompanying this tout, but they are viable nonetheless. Recent price action has been dispiriting, marked by the December contract's failure to reach an 'easy' rally target at 1485.90 (60-minute, a= 1446.20 on 11/12).  This was particularly disappointing because the A-B impulse leg of the pattern was strong. The target will remain in play nevertheless until such time as C=1456.60 is breached. That would put a downside target at 1429.50 in play (A=1495.90 on 11/6).