Goldman Sachs

Goldman has overshot a 153.13 correction target on the daily chart, so we should assume it will fall at least to the 149.95  target of a minor extension of the pattern. The target is somewhat interesting because the relevant point 'C' (see chart) occurred in night trading above the regular-session high. I wouldn't rate the support as a high-confidence number to bottom-fish, but it's worth a shot if you can abide a penny-ante stop-loss. _______ UPDATE: The stock bottomed at 148.27, presumably shaking out any longs from 149.95.

Price action has been so lame since Thanksgiving that you could almost get to feeling sorry for the little sumbitch (if not necessarily for Goldman's officers). The long-term chart is hard to get excited about, especially if you are short the stock or perhaps intending to get short. As much could be said for the bullish case, so we'll leave the stock alone for a while.  A steep surge hitting 185 would change the picture significantly, however, and so I've set an alert there.

The short squeeze that propelled Goldman shares on the last two trading days of the year has the potential to mutate into something scary if a further $5 push over the next day or two materializes.  That would create an impulse leg on the daily chart that will have surpassed four previous peaks, three of them "externals".

The rally from a 162.11 pivot was fun while it lasted, but the stock has now relapsed and looks bound for a minimum 157.37.  This Hidden Pivot has low value for trading purposes, however, because it roughly coincides with some important lows recorded back in August. A bigger picture projects 153.13, which would be the death knell for Goldman, cracking a series of supports that took most of last summer to construct.

The 162.11 Hidden Pivot where I suggested bottom-fishing in the chat room yesterday nailed the intraday low precisely to-the-tick.  Because the subsequent bounce carried 55 cents, anyone who took the trade would have had an easy opportunity to exit with a partial profit.  If you still hold stock, I'd suggest a 162.28 stop-loss, switched to a 30-cent trailing stop when 162.85 is hit. Minimum objective:  163.10.  (FYI, here is the heads-up I gave in the chat room wth the stock selling around 162.80 and falling:  "GS looks like it will bottom -- tradably -- at 162.11. The target...looks every bit as promising as the one given in Citi." ) _____ UPDATE (2:09 p.m. EST):  The stock has traded as high as 165.19 today, so anyone who took a position overnight after having bought at the targeted low, 162.11,could have reaped gains of as much as $308 per round lot.  You're on your own now, but please note that Goldman could be signaling more upside to as high as 169.33 if it closes above a midpoint resistance at 165.72.

The stock would need to pull back to at least 166.18 to be properly rested for another bullish thrust, but we'll accept the actual low at 166.21 as sufficient. That implies a long entry at 167.16 and a 169.99 target, but it's not an ideal camouflage opportunity because of the overnight interval between the creation of 'C' and its calculated entry price 'X'. No trade is advised, but this would have been an enticing one if the expected liftoff had occurred before yesterday's close.

We should relish kicking Goldman when it's down, of course, but we should never turn our back on the little sonofabitch as long as it is still breathing. Which it is. The stock would need to print 173.64 today to earn our begrudging respect for the near term, since that would create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  It would take a bit less -- 172.11, to be exact -- to do it on the five-minute chart, so let's set an alert there to warn of a sneak attack.  Traders please note that there is a dandy look-to-the-left peak to use for a camouflage entry, but if the trade triggers, be ready to enter on a buy-stop with zero hesitation.

Far from leading the market higher in its hour of need, Goldman has turned into the proverbial cement shoes, sinking whatever prospects remained for a year-end short-squeeze of the broad averages.  The stock has had noticeable difficulty reaching even the Hidden Pivot midpoints of retracement rallies, and so we should now expect to see it achieve downside targets with consistency. The nearest lies at 168.33, and it can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term. The 161.84 target of a larger pattern remains viable as well.

Despite the bearish rant in today's commentary, the stock was in a minor uptrend projecting to 173.82 at the cl0se, provided it can get past a lesser resistance at 172.69. I'd suggest shorting any 'D' rally target on the 15-minute chart with a very tight stop, however, since the stock looks like it's no longer easily capable of inflicting much pain on bears.