GS

Despite the bearish rant in today's commentary, the stock was in a minor uptrend projecting to 173.82 at the cl0se, provided it can get past a lesser resistance at 172.69. I'd suggest shorting any 'D' rally target on the 15-minute chart with a very tight stop, however, since the stock looks like it's no longer easily capable of inflicting much pain on bears.

The note concerning Goldman in today's ES tout bears repeating, to wit:  This market is going nowhere unless Goldman and its unsavory ilk can lead it higher. The daily chart has been looking too weighty to suggest that any such thing is imminent, but we'll have a chance to test this theory when the stock pulls back to 171.63, the nearest midpoint support of consequence.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss suited to taste, but if it's hit look for the weakness to continue down to as low as 161.84. ______ UPDATE (3:05 p.m. EST):  The recommended trade was an easy winner no matter what kind of stop-loss you used, since Goldman bounced $1.09 after bottoming just seven cents below my target.  It has since come back down, with the very bearish implications noted above if the pivot should fail.

With after-hour bars displayed on the hourly chart (A=180.05), Goldman looked bound for a tradable low at 174.62 when the week drew to a close.  I'll recommend bottom fishing there with a 174.64 bid for 200 shares, stop 174.59. You'll be on your own thereafter.

For six more measly cents, the dirtballs who ducked short-covering buyers on the opening yesterday could have squeezed the stock above yet one more external peak . The fact that it exceeded two such peaks is not exactly a sign of weakness, but it's probably sufficient to cause us to infer that Goldman doesn't have what it takes to reach new all-time highs.  We'll have to allow for the possibility nonetheless that shorts are going to remain on the hook, at least for the near term, and that the squeeze will intensify in the days ahead. If that's about to happen, GS should hit be able to hit 184.88 today, slightly exceeding a daunting external peak on the hourly chart.

The unintuitive ABCD rally pattern in the chart projects to as high as 182.06 over the near term, although Goldman's tired performance yesterday does not inspire much confidence that it will be reached any time soon. Those who say the bear rally has miles to go must explain how it will happen without the banking sector leading the charge. We're all ears if there's another stock or group of stocks that can take on a leadership role.

Even with a vicious short-squeeze to start the day, Goldman was unable to make it to a 'D' target that lies below a key peak  at 178.58.  The target itself is 177.06, a Hidden Pivot, and I'll be interested to see whether this erstwhile world-beater is able to reach it today. That would confirm the status quo (i.e., a go-along uptrend), but the stock will need to blow past the pivot to suggest that it's capable of regaining its status as a market leader.

Our bellwether Goldman is not yet a weak stock, but its long-term charts are starting to show clear signs of fatigue. It began with the failure of the early-August peak to surpass another that had been recorded a month earlier at 172.45. The stock has since recovered somewhat to create a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart, but it required a short pullback and a running start to succeed. In addition, the retracement since then has been nastier than we might have expected if the stock were still rarin' to go. If GS settles below 157.20 this week -- unlikely, I should think -- that would create the first bearish impulse leg of weekly-chart degree since the one in October '08 that telegraphed Goldman's collapse to a bear-market low at 47.41.

I can't recall a time Goldman went so many days without generating any bullish impulse legs on its hourly chart, and the apparent short-squeeze drought has forced us to use the lowly 15-minute chart for purposes of analysis.  That's the only place where the stock has been able to make it happen, albeit barely. You can see a rally pattern projecting to 174.79, but we'll be better able to judge whether there is buying power percolating underneath if the stock can push past that Hidden Pivot within 30 or so minutes of first touching it. Better still would be for the implied thrust to take out the 176.49 look-to-the-left peak while it's at it.

On the hourly chart, Goldman needs to hit 180.06 to decisively end the so-far 15 percent slide from a 17-month peak at 193.  A minor reversal would  require a mere 173.45, however, and that's where longer-term shorts should ratchet up their attention.  Any microscopic pullback from just above that number would offer great camouflage for a long entry, provided the rally has not come  from too far below.  The opportunity is perhaps best appreciated on the 5-minute chart  (see inset).