GDXJ is just an inch from touching down at the 57.53 Hidden Pivot target shown. The pattern looks too obvious to work precisely, but it is also sufficiently compelling to all but guarantee a tradable turn from somewhere near 57.53. This usually means that catching the low on a chart of lesser degree will endure a stop-out or two before the vehicle reverses and does what it is supposed to do: make you money. A decisive penetration of 'd', especially on first contact, would be quite discouraging, but I doubt we'll see it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6): I first mentioned a 72.23 target two months ago when GDXJ was trading in the mid-50s. The target still looks all but certain to be achieved, especially with the recent breach of a 64.23 midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with an even higher target at 111.59 (!) Further attesting to the power of the rally, the thrust exceeded the watershed high at 65.95 recorded in August 2020. Although a stall at 72.23 should be expected, GDXJ would be signaling a potentially ballistic move to 111.59 if it punches through the lower resistance easily. The pattern yielding these targets is compelling, implying that a top of some importance could occur at 111.59. Here is the graph I'm using to get a confident handle on this vehicle. The data go back to 2009, the year in which GDXJ was listed.
Last week's gap through p=62.17 all but ensures that the downtrend will achieve the 57.53 target. The good news is that the pattern is just opaque enough to deliver a tradable bounce from somewhere very close to d. It is also sufficiently compelling to make a move significantly below 57.53 unlikely, at least initially. GDXJ will have taken a month to get there, so even under the most bearish assumptions, it would need to hang out in an around 'd' for at least 4-7 days before breaking down.
Friday's swoon tripped a theoretical sell signal at 63.68 that implies GDXJ will fall to at least p=61.55 in search of traction. Thereupon, and as always, a decisive breach of the midpoint support on first contact would imply more slippage is likely -- in this case to p2 (59.23) or even d (56.91). As the current gold tout implies, however, numerous other outcomes are possible, the most bearish of which would be a decisive penetration of p on first contact. Regardless, this Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished by scalperss with a tightly constructed 'camo' trigger. _______ UPDATE Apr 21, 11:12 a.m. EDT): So obsessively attentive was I to a recent, hair-trigger sell signal in Comex Gold and this vehicle that I didn't think to mention the 72.23 rally target advertised here in the previous tout. It should underlie any forecasts, bullish or bearish, and must always be considered regardless of contrary warning signs.
GDXJ struggled for eight months to push decisively past midpoint resistance at 49.02, so there are no guarantees that it will easily reach the 72.23 target, especially straightaway. More likely is a ratcheting move to the target that requires 6-8 weeks to complete. Gains from one peak to the next will likely be smaller than theoretical losses incurred from holding shares from trough to trough, but that also means positions can be 'worked' with covered writes on the way up to squeeze additional yield from your position.
With a longstanding rally target at 57.17 and a sell signal not far below, we had no trouble getting out of the way of last week's massacre. The vicious shakedown was engineered by the usual sleazeballs, but we'll have the luxury of rebuilding our inventory at prices that suit us, and without time constraints or pressure. The 49.42 'd' target of the pattern shown will be a good place to start, although it's conceivable the correction could bring GDXJ down to as low as 44.87 (a=55.58 on 10/22) before it turns around. That pattern implies that a run-up now to 55.17 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, so we should be on our guard against signs of premature exuberance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:32 p.m.): Accumulating stock at the 49.42 correction target flagged above was a winning play, since GDXJ bottomed 9 cents below that number the next day before trampolining to 53.83.
Because this symbol is overdue for a correction, I've arbitrarily drawn a chart that could signal the start of one if GDXJ falls to 55.17. That would trigger a theoretical 'sell' signal with downside potential to at least 51.74. An additional 'hidden' support at 55.63 could provide a tradable bounce. The supports should not give way easily, and that is why we can safely assume Mr Market means business if they do.
The slight dip beneath the 54.84 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown implies more retracement is needed to set up the next big push to a presumptive 60.62. The first place you could look for a turn is 54.44, a minor support given here last week. Beneath it lies prospective support at p2=53.44, the 'secondary' pivot; or a worst-case 52.03. There are two additional bull-market targets that I mentioned here earlier. They lie, respectively, at 72.73 and 111.59.
There is little doubt GDXJ will soon achieve the 57.17 target shown. Is that all there is, some might ask. Not by a longshot. Here's a bigger picture that shows upside potential to as high as 72.73. More immediately, the 60.62 'secondary' pivot looks like a solid bet to get hit. A puzzle, though, is what could happen after 72.23, a number that would exhaust conventional targets. It turns out that a reverse pattern begun from 84.72 in Feb 2010 allows for upside to as high as 111.59 (!) The corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 64.23, and it roughly coincides with a peak at 65.95 recorded in August 2020, implying double resistance at that level. That is a good thing, since it will create a 'magnetic' challenge for bulls to overcome. _______ UPDATE (Mar 19, 10:04 a.m.): After topping yesterday less than 1% above my longstanding target at 57.17, GDXJ has come down hard, trading as low as 55.70 this morning. If you are looking to augment a long position, stake out a new one, or perhaps close out a covered write initiated near 57.17, you should do so at 54.44, my minimum downside target for this correction if a Hidden Pivot support at 54.84 gives way. Worst case would be 52.03, a ‘hidden’ support where you can back up the truck to replenish your inventory of shares (or naked-short puts if you trade aggressively). Here's a chart to help orient you.
GDXJ looks all but certain to achieve the 54.92 target shown in the chart. The gap opening through p=48.39 on January 30 was an encouraging sign, and the more recent dip below the red line (p=48.39) was also impressive. since it triggered a so-far profitable buy there. We usually initiate 'mechanical' trades at the green line, but when the trend looks especially robust, there's a risk of missing the opportunity by not stepping up to the next level. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:11 a.m. EDT): This week's bold leap to a so-far high at 54.72 has left little doubt that GDXJ will not only reach my target, it will go on to achieve the next, an ambitious Hidden Pivot at 57.17 shown in this chart. Although Comex gold and silver futures showed timidity at times in 2025, this ETF for gold exploration companies has confidently led the way up. With mining stocks finally on the move, the health and longevity of the bull market in bullion seems assured for yet more months, if not years.
GDXJ's chart is in good shape -- good enough, actually, to hint that the upcoming test of support in gold and silver futures will favor bulls. The likelihood of this will increase if this vehicle hits the green line just as its Comex-contract cousins are touching their respective 'D' correction targets. Regardless, if GDXJ falls to x=45.12, shown in that inset chart as a green line, that would signal a 'mechanical' buy, stop 41.84. Presumably, it would be good for an easy ride back up to at least p = 48.39.
