Uncannily Accurate Forecasts for Stocks & Commodities
Daily Commentary
Rick Ackerman’s daily market commentary — blunt, specific, and free of Wall Street spin. Browse the full archive below.
August 28, 2022
[The Morning Line commentary will resume on Sunday, September 17, to allow your editor a holiday break. In the interim I will continue to update ‘touts’ and to post in the Rick’s Picks trading room as usual. RA] The way stocks plummeted on Friday, one could almost believe that Fed blatherer-in-chief Jerome Powell made […]
Read the full commentary →August 21, 2022
Call it a recession or anything else you prefer, but the bottom line is that the prosperity of decades past is not coming back. Thinking expansively about the economy is no longer part of the American mindset, since, as should be perfectly clear to everyone by now, the Fed’s epic, easy-credit hoax can do little […]
Read the full commentary →August 14, 2022
Is the stock market on its way to new record highs? The thought would have seemed preposterous just a week ago, when the Dow’s still-presumptive bear rally had yet to exceed even a single peak on the daily chart. But it did so last Wednesday, with a gap-up opening that demonstrated how spectacular daily gains […]
Read the full commentary →August 7, 2022
[The following went out last month to clients of my friend Doug Behnfield, a wealth management advisor and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley in Boulder CO. Like your editor, he is skeptical that consumer inflation can persist for long with the U.S. economy in recession and a bear market in progress. Deflation is coming, […]
Read the full commentary →July 31, 2022
Last week’s price action served to remind us that big rallies and even entire bull markets are driven mainly by short covering. This doesn’t happen by accident; Wall Street’s quasi-criminal masterminds set short squeezes in motion using news as a catalyst. The booby traps they employ are more or less predictable, but they succeed anyway […]
Read the full commentary →July 17, 2022
There was a point last Thursday when virtually all of the hundred or so market symbols I track were ‘red’ except for the U.S. Dollar Index. This was unusual and unsettling but hardly mysterious, since the dollar’s strength was the reason everything else was falling in value. The trend unfortunately is only just beginning and […]
Read the full commentary →July 10, 2022
How high is the bear rally begun in mid-June likely to go before buyers run out of gas? The 4029.75 target shown in the chart is a logical answer, even if the hubris of billboarding it here could queer its voodoo magic. A run-up to 4029 would represent a 3.1% gain over Friday’s close and […]
Read the full commentary →July 3, 2022
Bullish seasonality was at gale force last week, but just look at the tired chart! Is this the best that Wall Street’s quasi-criminal masterminds can do? Have they grown so despairing that they can’t even detonate a 100-point short squeeze when Jerome Powell is bloviating on TV? That was manifestly the case, and torpor could […]
Read the full commentary →June 26, 2022
The chart above is intended to take some of the guesswork out of determining how high this presumably doomed stock-market rally is likely to go. Not very, would be my guess. I say the rally is doomed for a few reasons, none of which has anything to do with a U.S. recession that began months […]
Read the full commentary →June 19, 2022
Copper’s long-term chart suggests that the global economy could have one last hurrah once the bear market begun in January has run its course. Copper is reputed to have a PhD in economics because of its supposed ability to predict major turns accurately, In actuality, its track record is pretty impressive. The chart above shows […]
Read the full commentary →June 12, 2022
As if the thimble-riggers at the Fed didn’t have enough to worry about, the dollar turned rabid last week, threatening to transform America’s still-undeclared recession into a downturn for the history books. The greenback’s rally pushed the price of U.S. goods even higher for foreigners while increasing the cost of fuel that they pay for […]
Read the full commentary →June 6, 2022
There’s no relief in sight for gas prices that seem headed to at least $10 gallon. The chart above suggests July crude will likely hit $128 this week or early next, a whopping 7.5% gain over last week’s high. But watch out if the futures shred their way past this Hidden Pivot resistance, since that […]
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