Uncannily Accurate Forecasts for Stocks & Commodities
Daily Commentary
Rick Ackerman’s daily market commentary — blunt, specific, and free of Wall Street spin. Browse the full archive below.
March 6, 2022
Economists, particularly those who specialize in monetary theory, generally agree that inflation is an increase in the supply of dollars, and deflation a decrease. In practice, however, this theory is far too vague to be of any value for making predictions, since no one has a clue how much money is out there. There are […]
Read the full commentary →February 28, 2022
Few expected Ukraine to put up such a fierce fight, least of all Vladimir Putin. Despite his overwhelming advantage of firepower and troops, he and the rest of the world might have known better, given the reputation Russian soldiers of all stripes earned in battle during the last century. Setting ethnic Russians against one another […]
Read the full commentary →February 20, 2022
[The markets will be closed on Monday for President’s Day, but I am putting out fresh touts and commentary because DaBoyz are required to briefly let the beast out of its cage on Sunday evening. Up-to-the-minute updates from Rick’s Picks will resume on the home page and in the trading rooms on Tuesday. RA ] […]
Read the full commentary →February 13, 2022
Thinking back over the last 30 years, it’s hard to recall a single instance when traders ultimately lost money diving into stocks on ‘bad’ news. There was a hot mess of it on Friday, when shares plummeted to presumptive bargain levels on reports that Putin is about to invade Ukraine. That’s bad news indeed, although […]
Read the full commentary →February 6, 2022
Although headlines can move the markets, more often the opposite is true — i.e., the cyclically-ordained ups and downs of stocks tend to color our perceptions of the news. We are watching this dynamic unfold in real time as Russia prepares to trample Ukraine. Headline writers have done their best to gin up a seemly […]
Read the full commentary →January 30, 2022
Last week’s pointless gyrations did little to dispel the notion that the bull market is over. The vicious short-squeeze in the final minutes of Friday’s session only added to the impression that rallies are being stage-managed to suck in rubes. The hallmark of a bear market is un-shortable upthrusts, usually occurring at times of the […]
Read the full commentary →January 23, 2022
With the bull market in an apparent topping process, it will always be insightful to ponder Apple’s chart. It offers a window into the minds of money managers, many of whom have staked their careers on the uptrend of just one stock. Some of these guys would be sorely challenged to analyze a game of […]
Read the full commentary →January 17, 2022
The chart above suggests that interest rates on 30-year T-bonds could be on their way up to 3.02%, a more than 40% increase over the current 2.11%. That is not necessarily bad news for investors, since a market adjustment of that magnitude would make it unnecessary for the Fed to tighten. It would also make […]
Read the full commentary →January 9, 2022
What could possibly go right in 2022? Merely posing this question is courting ridicule from some quarters, since we have grown an asset bubble with the disaster potential of 1929’s. Still worse is that it sits on a geopolitical powder keg as big and dangerous as the one that detonated a decade later. Under […]
Read the full commentary →January 2, 2022
Happy New Year and welcome back! Things are beginning to return to normal at Rick’s Picks following the disastrous rollout of a new web site earlier this month by a company that had been working on this project for ten months. I’ve restored the old Rick’s Picks pages and replaced the firm with the highly […]
Read the full commentary →December 5, 2021
Mr. Market blew a great opportunity on Friday to scare the hell out of everyone, concluding the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the devastating rout that Wall Street’s years-long wilding spree so urgently needs. The continuing ascent of Apple shares as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the surreal […]
Read the full commentary →December 5, 2021
Mr. Market blew a great chance to scare the hell out of everyone on Friday, ending the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the rout that stocks so desperately need. AAPL as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the lofty aspirations of pension fund managers, and that is why, as […]
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