Uncannily Accurate Forecasts for Stocks & Commodities
Daily Commentary
Rick Ackerman’s daily market commentary — blunt, specific, and free of Wall Street spin. Browse the full archive below.
May 29, 2022
As the bear market runs its course in the months and years ahead, it will be punctuated by sharp and sometimes spectacular rallies to convince investors the worst is over. That is how Mr. Market will trap most of them into sticking with stocks until the bitter end. For only when the last bull has […]
Read the full commentary →May 22, 2022
The same geniuses who recently handicapped a recession that likely began several months ago as a 20% possibility are now reassuring us that the bear market has already run its course. If so, it would be the mildest, shortest bear market in history –three hours and 20 minutes, to be exact. The S&Ps entered bear-market […]
Read the full commentary →May 15, 2022
We’ve had four months to observe and analyze the bear market that began a single tick off January 4’s record high. What might be said about it so far? Mainly that it has been far kinder and gentler than we should expect. Realize that the biggest financial bubble in U.S. history has popped. Although this […]
Read the full commentary →May 8, 2022
Last week’s commentary asked how high the dollar can climb before it snuffs inflation and the increasingly shrill hysteria that has accompanied it. Inflation is supposed to cheapen the dollar, but that is not what has been happening. Instead, it has been climbing steeply relative to all other currencies. The experts have not been able […]
Read the full commentary →May 1, 2022
A lone deflationist on the lunatic fringe of economics 30 years ago, I wrote in Barron’s and the San Francisco Sunday Examiner that an out-of-control dollar eventually would do us in. Specifically, I asserted that a short squeeze on dollars would send their value soaring, making it difficult or impossible for anyone who owed dollars […]
Read the full commentary →April 24, 2022
If you’re a permabear, it might be refreshing to view Friday’s thousand-point Dow avalanche as the start of a wholesome new trend. My gut feeling, however, is that the plunge will reverse before midweek, ideally at Hidden Pivot targets featured in the latest list of ‘touts’ on the Rick’s Picks home page. I’ll keep an […]
Read the full commentary →April 17, 2022
For many of us, as pleasurable as it might be to picture Twitter in the hands of Elon Musk, and to imagine a despairing Jack Dorsey committing seppuku, Musk should save his billions for more useful purposes. He could start by building a competitive platform for a hundredth of what he’s offered to pay for […]
Read the full commentary →April 10, 2022
For more than a year, I’ve recommended what my friend Doug Behnfield calls the ‘barbell strategy’ to secure one’s nest egg against the deflationary hard times that lie ahead. As formulated by Doug, a wealth-management advisor based in Boulder, the barbell portfolio is constructed with gold and bonds as offsets. Try to imagine the worst […]
Read the full commentary →April 3, 2022
[Counting on the Fed to ride to the rescue when the bubble finally pops? You had better have a Plan B, and for good measure a Plan C, since America could be in for something far worse than mere recession when the asset boom ends. In the commentary below, my friend Charles Hugh-Smith spells out […]
Read the full commentary →March 27, 2022
Last week’s commentary was skeptical that the short squeeze begun two weeks ago in the broad averages would prove to be just a bear rally. Based on the latest technical evidence, it now seems likely that stocks are headed to new all-time highs. This is despite the fact that the world is going to hell […]
Read the full commentary →March 20, 2022
With the supposed bear rally about to enter its fifth week, I am reminded of Gideon Drew, “the thing that wouldn’t die” in the 1958 horror movie of that name. Like Drew, the stock market has become a disembodied monster, able to command loyalty and teacherous obedience with just a creepy movement of the eye. […]
Read the full commentary →March 13, 2022
Considering the size of the crude-oil market and its geopolitical importance, the rally begun two years from $6.50/bbl amidst fears of a Covid-caused Depression ranks as one of the most spectacular and consequential in history. Consumers are coping at the moment with speculative excesses brought on by the curtailment of Russian petrofuels, and by disruptions, […]
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