Rick Ackerman

In the wake of today's thousand-point selloff in the Dow, we're going to be hearing ad nauseum from every shill on Wall Street about how investors should stay the course. Most will be ignorant of technical analysis, or even disdainful of it, but I'd suggest keeping your guard up while the charlatans trot out PE ratios, valuation models and their own curve-fitted stats and charts to explain why the Dow is going to 50,000. My own indicators do not yet allow for a confident call on whether the bull market is dead, but those who have followed Ricks Picks for any length of time, or even for just the last few weeks, will know that we can hit the big, small and medium swings with sufficient precision and consistency to take most of the uncertainty out of the game. We did this in AAPL with a heavy dose of skepticism when the stock was rampaging suspiciously toward new record highs last week; in gold, which topped 90 cents above a 1690.80 target we'd drum-rolled weeks ago; and in the E-Mini S&Ps, whose massive selloff today turned just a millimeter from the target shown in this chart. Distributing Share to the Rubes Many traders must have been frustrated when, a few weeks ago, stocks initially shrugged off scary reports about the spread of coronavirus.  Although shares fell for a day-and-a-half, the subsequent rally would have caused otherwise cautious investors to doubt themselves. Mainstream analysis of the rally was invariably accompanied by news stories suggesting the virus was not spreading as quickly as had been feared.  This self-serving interplay between sleazy promoters on Wall Street and their benighted lackeys in the news media is why, without tongue in cheek, we frequently characterize the stock market as one big carnival midway. For in

The S&P 500 triggered a major sell signal today on a 112-point decline, putting in play the 3096.36 midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) shown in the chart as a minimum downside target.  This is the third such signal in the last 14 months, but it should be presumed more likely to pan out because it occurred on a gap down through the green-line trigger price.  Although this should temper our enthusiasm for buying the dips, it has not negated the possibility of using a 'counterintuitive' setup to get long over the next three or four days. Here's a piece of the chart taken from its right-hand edge that shows the relevant pattern. Today's low occurred so close to some important bottoms recorded in December and January, that we can assume most traders and investors are very worried about a possible breakdown. Such fears are exactly what the 'CI' trade was designed to exploit and leverage. The details of this tactic are proprietary, but I will be sharing them in the Trading Room, so stay tuned if you're interested. Regardless of whether the buy signal is triggered, the way the pattern plays out can give us a confident read on whether fear is about to supplant greed as the main force driving U.S. stocks. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 7:15 p.m. EST): Today's steep selloff brought the S&Ps to within easy distance of the 3096.36 threshold where we would take at least a partial profit if the trade had been done with real money. Our interest is more on the analytical and predictive side, but I am hereby establishing a tracking position and will book a hypothetical gain if the 3096.26 pivot is hit.  This will allow us to assess trend strength as we normally would in any vehicle. Accordingly, if SPX

Panicky sellers who dumped their positions on the opening tonight paid a very heavy price, since the thieves who control the game gave them a bid 45 points below Friday's close. This manipulation will have exhausted sellers, at least for the time being, making it easier for the thieves to unload their inventory at higher prices during the day. Even the predators will have to be careful, though, since the investment world has finally caught on to the fact that economic fallout from the coronavirus is going to be a very big deal -- even if the bug itself is eradicated tomorrow.  A quick die-off seems unlikely, but the story itself is picking up steam. It grew much scarier over the weekend, so much so that most traders are probably wondering why they didn't have the good sense to get short up to their eyeballs at the close on Friday.  Looking just ahead, the 3278.00 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart can be used as a minimum downside objective, but also to bottom-fish if you trade this vehicle actively. My gut feeling is that the selloff will reach the 3252.50 target in the next day or two, giving this week the worst start investors have experienced in long while.

Now that we are hearing stories about the viral threat of superspreaders, of deepening economic paralysis around the world, and how it could take 18 months to produce a vaccine, investors' show of bravado in recent weeks seems to have melted away. Shares got hit across-the-board on Thursday and Friday, and if investors know what's good for them they'll pound the bejeezus out of them this week. Although it's difficult to estimate how much selling will be necessary to discount some worst-case possibilities, including a sharp global downturn, it was at least a step in the right direction for traders to belatedly acknowledge with the hesitant, two-day selloff that they simply don't know how things will play out. It is frequently said of investors that they fear uncertainty more than anything else, and so the weakness that ended the week would have been a comfort to those who have wondered when even a faint sign of rationality would emerge on Wall Street. Betting Against Buffett Looking just ahead, a third consecutive day of selling would be extremely rare and suggest that investor psychology may have shifted after being fearlessly bullish for most of the last 11 years. As always, we'll be watching AAPL in particular, since it is the key bellwether for discerning the mindset of the institutional investors who literally own the game. Warren Buffett is conspicuously among them. Berkshire Hathaway reportedly holds $78 billion worth of Apple shares, about twice what the investment firm paid for them, and Buffett is not the sort who is likely to cut and run just because a global economic slowdown threatens. His steady nerves are what permabears will be up against if they expect the stock market to simply fall apart. Think of Boeing, which hasn't had a single good-news day in

How might a commie-loving nut-job become our next president? Although it seems unlikely at the moment, a Sanders victory is hardly unthinkable. Just do the math. At present the popular vote splits down the middle while the electoral map tilts ever-so-precariously red; national elections are therefore a toss-up. Trump would likely win if the election were held tomorrow, mainly because the economy is doing so well, at least on the surface. We'll put aside the unpleasant fact that these supposed boom times have not alleviated fatal levels of public and private debt even slightly and that many trillions of investment dollars have been recklessly pumped into the shares of companies that either produce nothing, lose money or both. Now suppose young adults do something they've never done before: show up at the polls in droves. If their turnout were phenomenal, as well it might be, that could swing the election to Crazy Bernie. Why would millennials Uber to grimy urban voting stations when they could be enjoying the day doing what they love -- i.e., washing down wedges of inventively seasoned avocado toast with mango-flavored hard seltzer as they swap climate-change horror stories? Bolsheviks at Heart Well, this time they've got a powerful reason to vote, since they sense that their huge cohort, nominal taxpayers between the ages of 23 and 37, comprises the biggest generation of economic losers America has ever produced. This has made them political zealots, fired up with such vengefulness as only middle-class, self-perceived have-nots could possess. They are Bolsheviks at heart, ignorant of the blessings capitalism has bestowed on them, and not given to pondering the destructive logic of Bernie's crackpot economic schemes. In my doomsday scenario, stocks are topping as I write these words and about to enter the Mother of All Bear Markets.

Although coronavirus is still viewed as unlikely to derail the bull market, it has noticeably sapped its strength. We don't feel it so much when stocks are ratcheting blithely higher as they did last week. But when you see half of those gains erased in mere minutes as occurred this morning, it's warning us to watch out for trouble. For the moment, that means focusing on the 3380.63 midpoint resistance shown in the chart. The 13-point rally required to get it there seems likely, and I'll suggest using it as a minimum upside projection. But I will also be looking to get short there, if only for a quick scalp, since I mildly doubt that bears are nervous enough to deliver the usual short-covering panic on-demand. If they can sit back and just enjoy the news, including most recently Apple's sobering, virus-wary guidance, perhaps then the supposed Smart Money will get the comeuppance it has been courting for years.

There are some new tricks here, including a nifty way to use ABC patterns to naked-short options. In this case, we looked at AAPL puts with ten days left on them as the stock was barreling higher. There is also an extension of the rules governing ‘mechanical’ buys that opens up new opportunities at the red line. Students were encouraged to come to the next session on March 6 armed with trading set-ups likely to trigger that day. See ya then!

Index futures were wafting higher Tuesday night, evidently unfazed by mounting evidence that coronavirus has already slowed the pace of global economic growth significantly.  Such worries as occupy portfolio managers' tiny, fevered brains these days centered on Apple, the most valuable company in the world. (I don't count Aramco because, well, who cares that it's actually bigger?) The Cupertino manufacturer of egregiously overpriced cellphones and accessories, and of late an aspirant in the overcrowded streaming-content business, announced Monday afternoon that Q1 results would take a big hit from work slowdowns and weakened sales in China. Apple shares had to play along with the announcement, since it would have been unseemly and even a little bizarre for the stock to have risen on such news, emanating as it did from Apple's own PR desk. Other stocks in the FAANG/lunatic sector were not so deferential, however. Most chalked up solid gains on the day, implying they are chomping on the bit as they wait for Apple's troubles to be perfunctorily discounted and forgotten in perhaps a few more days. (Note: Technically, AAPL looks primed to fall for reasons covered in my latest tout, below.) That the FAANGs and other multinational giants are themselves vulnerable to the same virus-related forces affecting Apple will not likely be a concern on Wall Street, where the sole imperative is to throw Other People's Money at a relatively small handful of stocks.  Actually, Apple's bearish guidance may ultimately help this Ponzi scheme along, since it will afford analysts an easy opportunity to do what they are paid to do: underestimate earnings ahead of each new round of quarterly reports. _______ UPDATE (Feb 19, 8:30 p.m.): I hadn't imagined Apple's bearish announcement would be forgotten in mere hours. While I'd expected Sunday night's selloff to continue for at

On February 2, based on reports from subscribers, I established a tracking position of 400 shares @ 28.39. I am still suggesting that you exit half at 29.42, but we'll keep the remainder for a shot at much higher prices (see chart inset). If GDX eventually reaches the 36.66 target, we could book a profit of as much as $1,886. It could take a while, but we've already proven we can endure a brutal grind waiting to collect our first payoff. It is not yet in the bag, though, since the stock was still 27 cents shy of the 29.42 profit target at today's high. Fortunately, the uptrend looks sufficiently robust to get us there on Wednesday. This trade is what I've described to you in the past as the kind of no-brainer opportunity Rick's Picks tries to offer from time to time in order to make your annual subscription pay for itself, even if you rarely follow my touts, Trading Room instructions or 'request session' actionable ideas. GDX offered a relatively cheap play, and the trade could have been done on margin in an account with less than $12,000 (or $6,000 if you halved the size to 200 shares). The trade was deliberately chosen and precisely timed to address subscribers' keen interest in gold and to ameliorate their recurring frustration trying to make money in a precious metals sector that has been become notorious for misbehavior. The actual buy recommendation was simple and straightforward, allowing subscribers to buy the stock pennies off the bottom of a hellish dive. We subsequently came close to getting stopped out on a relapse, and although our grueling 'hold' caused me to lose patience at one point, I stuck to my discipline and let the trade run. I hope you learned something valuable about