Rick Ackerman

I've been predicting higher interest rates on T-Bonds and T-Notes, but a dissenting post by 'Oldman' in the Rick's Picks chat room sent me to my charts for a closer look. Bottom line: Based on the technical evidence, I still expect long-term rates to rise. I'll explain why shortly, but first let me present Oldman's argument, since he makes some excellent points. He posted Friday afternoon as follows: "According to Sentimentrader.com, 1) 0% of the market is bullish on T-Note prices (i.e., 100%  are expecting higher rates);  2) only 17% of the market is bullish on T-Bonds (i.e., 83% expect higher long-term rates); 3) commercials have NEVER been longer in T-Notes than they are now, and 4) Large Specs have NEVER been shorter in T-Notes than they are now. Four good reasons for a trade, so I went long Ten-Year Notes at 119^24 (stop 118^24), targeting 122^24 & 124^00. There is heavy resistance at 122^24, so I may go short thereabouts with 110^20 target. Ten -Year Notes (December) were up ^23 earlier today but closed ^17.5 at 120^02.5. They are up 1^07 since August 1st. Have a nice weekend everyone." Hidden Pivots Say 'Higher' While Oldman's figures are sufficient to raise doubts in the minds of Bond bears -- of which I am one, albeit only mildly so -- a strict technical interpretation of the charts leads me to believe that the rise in long-term rates begun a little more than two years ago will continue, at least for a while. Based on the Hidden Pivot Analysis I rely on to determine such things, I see two details that portend a further rise in yields. The chart itself shows interest rates on the Ten-Year Note. Notice that the first time the uptrend encountered resistance at the red line, a 'midpoint

I wrote here yesterday that Trump's plan to pay off the national debt with tariff revenues would place a huge new tax on consumption, triggering a Second Great Depression. Here's an interesting response from Rick's Picks forum regular John Jay: Actually, Trump and the NY Times are on the same page on this issue. They are both going along with the setup that all that debt, financed by the Fed out of thin air, MUST be repaid. Well, let’s think outside the box on this issue, shall we? What the Big Banks, through their proxy, the Fed, have been doing since Easy Al replaced Volcker, is create money out of thin air to monetize the debt. It is not some mysterious, special skill; anyone who can fire up a computer and hit the “0” key can manage it. They have just abused their power to enrich the handful of scoundrels at the top of the heap. Anyone telling you all that debt needs to be repaid to those scoundrels is running the “Big Con," and hoping there is no repeat of the Gaius Marius Proscription Lists to put “Paid” to this “Debt”. Which has happened time and again in history, from Gaius Marius to the Romanov Reset. Bernie Sanders and the dimwit chick Ocasio are straws in the wind for what can happen real quick if the scoundrels push their luck on getting repaid. A Failed Revolution Right now we are at the 1905 failed Russian Revolution level in this country. As the electorate gets dumber and then dumbest, the 1917 version is becoming ever more likely. What follows will be ten times worse that what we have now, but the mob will have its way, regardless of the consequences. Let’s face it: Have the “Scoundrels” from Nero, to the

We've been using a rally target at 2874.75 that should have been achieved by now, but the pump-and-dump specialists seem to be having trouble getting there. This is distributive price action, although we've learned not to read too much into it, since it is likely to pass just as soon as the news environment becomes more supportive of a short-squeeze rally. For the moment, though, there's a small cloud over TSLA (see my tout update below), and a dearth of feel-good headlines concerning Trump's tariffs. If and when China blinks, the Dow will soar 1000 points, but nothing right now suggests concessions from them are inevitable. Once again, I will hazard no predictions for the E-Mini futures, but the last-minute selloff suggests its handlers will be attempting to exhaust sellers overnight in order to run the futures up before the opening bell.

Trump's heart may be in the right place when he plays hardball with our trading partners, but he left little doubt on Wednesday that his brain is out to lunch on tariff math. His notion that revenues from sizable new import levies could pay off the national debt is as pernicious and lacking in common sense as Alan Greenspan's statement that inflated home values constitute 'wealth'.  The Fed chairman has a PhD in economics, so it's understandable why he would make such a ridiculous statement (along with another that purported to describe a U.S. capital investment boom at a time when household savings growth was in fact negative).  But Trump is a businessman and therefore supposedly able to do the math.      33% Tariff on All Imports Would 'Work' Instead, the hard left and its flagship newspaper, the New York Times, did it for him, making him look like a yokel. The Times estimated that even if much higher import duties had no effect on U.S. consumers' appetite for foreign goods, the extra revenues would not begin to produce a budget surplus large enough to pay off a national debt currently at $21 trillion and slated to grow by $800 billion in 2018. To merely offset the latter sum via trade policy alone, noted the Times, Trump "would need to impose a more-than 33 percent tariff on $2.34 trillion in imports — which is to say, every single good the United States imported last year." Numbers aside, only the economically benighted could want to see the U.S. Government running huge surpluses, since that would be tantamount to socking the private sector with huge new taxes. Most of it would be a direct offset against consumption -- if not dollar for dollar, then by at least enough to put the

We recently scratched a small long position with the intention of buying it back at 6.11. Although the hourly chart (see inset) suggests First Majestic could fall to as low as 5.82 before it bottoms, I'll recommend keeping in the bid at 6.11 for 400 shares. That's a tick above the p2 'secondary pivot', and therefore a promising place for the stock to turn if it is going to reverse its recent slide. We'll want to buy more at d=5.82 if the opportunity arises, but I'm not inclined right now to use a stop-loss for any shares acquired at 6.11. _______ UPDATE (August 13, 10:10 a.m.): With AG getting dumped this morning and fills reported at 6.11 and 5.82, I am establishing as tracking position of 800 shares for an average 5.97.  This is 30% less than the 8.48 some paid for the stock just a month ago._______ UPDATE (August 13, 1:38 p.m.): Offer one Aug 31 5.50 call @ 0.25 for each round lot of stock bought today, day order. (Order filled 1:57 p.m.) _______ UPDATE (August 14, 9:28 a.m.): So we don't find ourselves rooting against a stock we own, let's try to 'uncap' our covered write, initially with a 0.05 bid for as many Aug 31 6.0 calls are you are short 5.50s. This will give us a simple, vertical spread (for 0.20) against stock we own, rather than a covered write that caps our upside participation above $5.75. If no calls come at 0.05, I may suggest raising the bid to 0.10. This is a day order.______ UPDATE (August 14, 9:28 p.m.): Nothing new to suggest. Let's avert our eyes for a day.

I've been so down on gold lately that it could probably pop $100 before I'd even notice. That's why I've set some bullish price alerts on a few gold and silver charts, adding buy-stop entries for two mining stocks tracked below.  We blew out a position in Majestic Silver [NYSE: Symbol AG] the other day with the goal of replacing it at a better price, but also knowing there are no guarantees our stingy new bid will be filled. Similarly, in New Gold [AMEX: Symbol NGD], I've added a buy-stop limit entry, to be worked order-cancels-order with a niggardly bid that sits well below the market. All of this follows an email I received from a subscriber calling attention to the egregiously oversold condition of gold futures right now, and to the outsize short Comex position held by speculators who are usually wrong at important turning points.  So am I, at least instinctually, and that's why I try to stay close to my charts, which are never wrong.

Despite the rising drumbeat from Silver bulls in the chat room, I promised to ignore such noise and go strictly by the charts. In that regard, price action in the September contract stinks. I'll need more evidence before I ask aloud, "What were we thinking!?" But based on Thursday's failure of a minor rally to reach its 15.745 target, it is not too early to ratchet up the skepticism. Admittedly, this is like calling the electoral vote in Pennsylvania 20 minutes after the polls close. But we've been had so many times by fake-out rallies that we can ill afford to cling hopefully to the one begun a week ago. I'll turn on a dime if the futures demonstrate a little good faith, presumably with a strong bounce from 15.350, a midpoint support on the hourly chart (A=15.885 on 7/17). But failing that, a further fall to at least D=15.00o will become all too likely. ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 7:40 p.m.):  Progress to the upside has been so labored that it's hard to imagine Silver futures taking off. Whatever they're about to do, we'll continue to fight off sleep for the time being. _______ UPDATE (August 7):  Never short a quiet tape, as the saying goes.  Silver futures are so quiet these days that one could fall into a trance watching them too closely. So we don't get caught unawares, I've set a screen alert at 15.640. A print there would exceed an 'external' peak recorded July 31, turning the hourly chart bullish.

With renewed U.S. economic sanctions against Iran slated to take effect on Tuesday, Iranians were panicking to exchange rials for gold. The buying frenzy had no discernible effect on the dollar price of gold, which sold off moderately in U.S. markets. You'd have to be an old-timer to recall a day when gold's price could be pushed one way or the other by geopolitical events.  Nowadays, even financial mayhem in some troubled corner of the world appears to have no impact whatsoever on bullion. Has 'flight to safety' come to mean shifting one's cash into Amazon shares? Sometimes it seems that way. Whereas T-Bonds and T-Notes have their ups and downs, AMZN charges relentlessly higher on most days, providing investors with the kind of returns that have made safety an afterthought. Interesting times, for sure, and not just a little bit wacky.

Shifting to the October contract yields a compelling downside target at 1197.7o that can replace a projected range of 1192.70-1201.10 given here earlier for the August futures. Basis the December contract, this is equivalent to 1202.90.  As always, I'll recommend bottom-fishing this Hidden Pivot support aggressively only to subscribers who have made money being short on the way down. A rebound in the meantime to p=1240.60 (basis the December) would set up an enticing if belated 'mechanical' short. We'd want to execute it via a 'camouflage' set-up to significantly reduce the initial, theoretical risk of nearly $1200 per contract. ______ UPDATE (August 7, 1:22 p.m. EDT): So we're not caught unawares if enthusiastic buyers show up unexpectedly, I've set a chart alert at 1237.90, since a print there would turn the hourly chart impulsively bullish.