Rick Ackerman

AAPL's $8 surge in after-hours trading has stalled in an interesting place, a hair from a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 197.66. A decisive penetration of that resistance would imply more upside to the 214.58 target shown. We'll probably know soon whether buyers have the moxie to push the stock a total of 12% higher on upbeat earnings news that came out after Tuesday's close. I have my doubts AAPL will reach the target -- but then, I've never been impressed with the company's overpriced hardware, nor with 'genius' support that could never explain why iTunes at times acted almost like a virus on Windows-based systems. "Smartphones Are Like Radial Tires..." But don't take my word for it. Here's what the always astute Andy Kessler had to say op-ed in the Wall Street Journal recently:  "Smartphones are now like radial tires. Everyone has one and they don’t wear out. Phone franchises are fickle. Ask Motorola or Nokia , if you can find them. One near-term sign of distress: Marketing tech products with splashy colors, as Steve Jobs did with tangerine iMacs almost 20 years ago, means the fun part is almost over. Apple hopes to make it up in services, but Google leads in maps, Netflix in video, and Uber in transportation. Apple is falling behind in most other growth segments. The company’s destructive seed is its desperate need for a new product category. It won’t be watches."  Even if there are good reasons for AAPL to make an important top here, I'll go with my charts. As noted above, if the stock can push decisively past 197.66, or close above it for two consecutive days, I'd infer that more upside to 214.58 is an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (August 2. 12:19 a.m.): The stock traded as high as 201.92 intraday,

I am tracking a 400-share position with a 6.38 cost basis and a stop-loss at 6.35. The weak bounce so far is slightly encouraging but hardly persuasive. I've advised a stop-loss because AG looks likely to fall to at least 6.11 if it comes back down to the price where we acquired it. I'd be keen on re-positioning at 6.11, but in the meantime I have neither the stomach nor the patience to 'average down'. Considering how bullion has been disappointing bulls since topping in 2011, there's no compelling reason for us to give it the strong benefit of the doubt. We can ratchet down the skepticism if and when this stock pops above a 6.92 'external' peak recorded on July 20, but until then there's no reason to invest any hope in our watchful (prayerful?) vigil. _______ UPDATE (August 6, 12:28 p.m. EDT): Silver has been most unimpressive lately, and this morning's bear-trap opening looked like a ploy to squeeze this stock for distribution. I am exiting now for a small profit, with the intention of repositioning at 6.11 or perhaps lower.

I am tracking a 400-share position with a 6.38 cost basis and a stop-loss at 6.35. The weak bounce so far is encouraging but hardly persuasive. I've advised a stop-loss because AG looks likely to fall to at least 6.11 if it comes back down to the price where we acquired it. I'd be keen on re-positioning at 6.11, but in the meantime I have neither the stomach nor the patience to 'average down'. Considering how bullion has been disappointing bulls since topping in 2011, there's no compelling reason for us to give it the strong benefit of the doubt. We can ratchet down the skepticism if and when this stock pops above a 6.92 'external' peak recorded on July 20, but until then there's no reason to invest any hope in our watchful (prayerful?) vigil.

In the list of touts, I am substituting this vehicle for the E-Mini S&Ps because there appears to be almost no interest in the latter in the chat room.  The chart shows a very slight overshoot of a D target at 255.15. Given the perfect clarity of the pattern, even a two-tick overshoot is bullish and implies DIA is bound for the target of an even larger ABC. That would be this one, with a 258.73 objective.  We will trade this vehicle differently from the E-Mini futures, with a nearly 100% emphasis on option trades, since they are the only ones that seem to get noticed in the chat room. A 'conventional' buy signal has been tripped, as implied above, but we'll wait for a mechanical signal before I suggest jumping on board via the purchase of call options. _______ UPDATE (August 3, 12:46 a.m.): There's too much bravado in the FAANG stocks at the moment, so let's plan on fading a go-along rally in this vehicle. Specifically, I'll suggest buying two August 10 254 puts if the underlying gets within 0.05 of the 254.06 target shown in this chart. I estimate the options will be trading for around 1.15-1.20 if the target is reached toward the end of the session. This is a highly speculative bet, since we'll be getting in the path of a speeding freight train, so don't bet the ranch._______ UPDATE (August 3, 1:04 p.m.): As expected, DIA has rallied to a so-far high at 254.12, allowing subscribers to buy puts -- as reported in the chat room -- for 1.17-1.21. For now, I will track two @1.21. Stop yourself out if they trade for less than 1.00.

Morgan Stanley is out with a scary forecast for August, warning of the biggest stock-market drop since supposed inflation fears caused shares to plummet in February. This time, the thinking goes, market participants have simply run out of good news to look forward to. For one, there's a strong chance corporate earnings have peaked. Still worse is that FAANG leadership has failed with the recent plunge in Netflix and Facebook following mildly disappointing Q2 reports. Even AMZN, whose numbers did not disappoint, was unable to hold onto gains racked up seconds after the good news hit the tape. Free Money! Come and Get It! If there is reason for optimism, it comes from the old stock-market adage, 'They don't ring a bell at the top'. For make no mistake, that is exactly what Morgan Stanley would be doing if stocks are about to cascade. A contrarian would look for some scenario to make the geniuses at Morgan look foolish, since, if they are right, it would mean all of us are about to make easy bucks in the weeks ahead with put options that explode to ten times their purchase price. Nearly everyone I talk to is at least as bearish as the analysts at Morgan. Is it possible we're all about to nail the top?  In any event, it would be a relief to see the broad averages head-fake one last time before diving into the bowels of hell. How else are we going to be caught with our pants down, which is how every bear market begins?  A possibility springs to mind: Monday's moderate weakness turns into an avalanche this very evening or early Tuesday. That would work. Show of hands: How many of you bought a bushel basket of put options ahead of the closing bell?

Friday's decline breached three prior lows, two of them 'external', suggesting there was more urgency to the selloff than appeared. This will shift my short-term bias from bullish to cautious even though a somewhat bigger picture suggests the weakness is merely corrective. If it continues on Monday, taking out a 2792.50 low recorded on July 22, that would generate a bearish impulse leg of still larger degree, beckoning even greater caution. In the process, it would also diminish the case for a rally to new all-time highs -- a prospect that I raised here earlier. ______ UPDATE (July 30, 7:17 p.m.): Night owls should jump on it if the futures trip a 'counterintuitive' buy signal coming off a low that occurs between the two labeled lows.

Amazon shares sold off hard Friday after failing twice to get past a Hidden Pivot target sent out to subscribers two nights earlier. Goosed by an upbeat report on Q2 profits after Thursday's close, the stock vaulted to within less than $2 of the 1898.35 'hidden' resistance. It proved to be an impenetrable barrier and may yet turn out to mark an important top. AMZN's ability to shrug off this uncharacteristic defeat could be crucial to keeping the FAANG stocks from deflating further. NFLX and FB both got the stuffing knocked out of them last week on disappointing earnings news, and the broad averages that look to these lunatic-powered stocks for inspiration are likely to be vulnerable if their source of inspiration fails._______ UPDATE (August 3, 1:03 a.m. EDT):  'Important top'?  A Martian invasion seems more likely, given the ease with which this stock reverses downtrends and then climbs to new highs. Let's see how buyers fare with the 1836.47 midpoint resistance shown in this chart before we make book on the 1933.62 'D' target to which it is tied.

The aging bull market has grown much more difficult to handicap now that the FAANG stocks have lost their cool. Two of them, NFLX and FB, got slammed last week on news suggesting that subscriber growth was weakening. Then, on Friday, AMZN reversed a rally sharply, unable to hold gains following an upbeat earnings report the day before. What's a portfolio manager to do when he or she can no longer throw money at a bare handful of stocks in order to make outrageous returns? We may be about to find out, since betting everything on the FAANGs and letting it ride no longer seems to be a sure thing.

I disseminated a bearish target at 1192.70 last week, but August Gold will have an opportunity to turn from a lesser Hidden Pivot support at 1201.10 if the downtrend continues. The target is shown in the chart.  As you can see, its 1218.20 'midpoint support' has yet to be penetrated decisively; moreover, the downtrend has stalled twice exactly at the support. This means that although the target itself is not yet in play, it would become our precise objective if and when the midpoint is breached by more than $2.50 or so. Alternatively, we should want to see a pop above July 17's 1245.10 peak before we lower our guard even slightly.