Rick Ackerman

A 3.11% rate ceiling on the Ten-Year Note that has held for two months looks likely to be challenged in the weeks ahead. A forecast I put out in December, when rates were around 2.34%, caught the May high almost to-the-tick, raising the odds that the peak would prove to be an important one. Now, however, it’s time to prepare for the possibility that yields are headed still higher -- presumably to levels investors will not be able to shrug off as easily as they have a protracted period of Fed tightening and ‘tapering’ of its balance sheet.  The 3.15% target shown may not be quite enough to throttle the economy, but it will bring Ten-Year rates close to a threshold of around 3.25% where the risk of a small turn of the interest-rate screw could prove fatal — not only to growth, but to the Fed’s goal of ‘normalizing’ rates.

I've used larger patterns that the one shown (see inset) to project targets at, respectively, 1946 and 2007, but to be especially cautious I've shrunk my perspective to produce the 1898.35 target in today's chart.  Technically speaking, the target does not yet exist, since that would require a bounce to the green line. However, if and when the point 'C' low is in we can use the same pattern to get a precise handle on AMZN's next big upthrust, assuming it comes.  I continue to track AMZN closely because if we get it right, we have a better chance of getting the stock market right. The international scope of Amazon's operations make the retailing giant a crucial economic bellwether not just for the U.S., but for the entire world. ________ UPDATE (July 27, 1:43 a.m. a.m. a.m. EDT): The stock has rocketed 95 points on record earnings reported after the close, hitting a so-far high at 1895.00 that lies just a few points from the target I'd flagged above. The pullback since has been shallow, suggesting AMZN is capable of taking another leg up when the regular session begins on Friday. Until then, we should expect AMZN's canny handlers to shake loose some shares with an engineered swoon.  Wish them luck, since shorts appear to have their cojones caught in the ringer.________ UPDATE (July 27, 9:45 a.m.): Buyers hurled themselves at the 1898.35 Hidden Pivot again overnight, retreating sharply after getting no higher than 1896.40. Shorts are still trapped, but it is unpredictable at the moment whether they will succumb or prevail today.

Like September Silver, August Gold relapsed today after failing to reach a minor rally target that should have been a lay-up. However, for technical reasons I won't go into right now, the net result is not quite as threatening. It at least allows me to offer a bullish scenario, albeit one that will require gold to leap strongly before I wax enthusiastic again. Specifically, I'll stipulate that the futures must thrust above the 1245.10 peak labeled in the chart (see inset). Otherwise we'll have to assume that the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=1192.70, a Hidden Pivot destination that has been six weeks in coming.

We pulled out all the stops during our hour together, looking for day-trades to force in real time. Alas, most stocks were taking mid-day siestas, many after having run up sharply earlier in the morning. Despite the limitations these circumstances posed, we still came away with some timely possibilities for later in the day. Assuming real-time trades are what PIvoteers who attend these sessions want, I will continue to emphasize them.

Rates on long-term U.S. paper have remained stubbornly buoyant since topping in mid-May and now appear to be gathering strength for a leap to new multiyear highs. If so, the 30-Year Bond could hit 3.745%, with 3.319% possible on the Ten-Year Note. A move to those levels would add considerable drag to the U.S. economy, sapping energy from a housing market that has already turned down and from an auto sector that is threatened by a 25% tariff on imports. The stock market has shrugged off such worries in recent months, but there are reasons to doubt Wall Street's bravado will continue if long-term rates are about to move significantly higher.

Although the S&Ps are breaking out (see E-Mini analysis below), the Dow Industrials lag well behind. The former have already pushed above late February's key peak, generating a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart. However, for the Indoos to accomplish this they'd need to rally more than 500 points, exceeding 25,800. If the two continue to diverge, something's got to give. I'm betting that the lunatic-powered FAANG stocks, which have an outsize effect on the S&Ps, will be hard-pressed to drag the Dow much higher, since the blue chip average represents America's relatively unexciting industrial sector.  We shall see.

The futures dropped 19 points Tuesday after rallying earlier in the session to within a single point of the 2832.25 target sent out to subscribers the night before. There remains just one minor target at 2845.00 to be achieved before we'll need to consider bullish patterns of larger degree. What this implies is that the S&Ps are on the verge of breaking out from the lengthy consolidation begun in February after stocks got walloped. The breakout would be affirmed by a move exceeding the 2848.00 'external' peak shown in the chart. That would refresh the impulsive power of the daily chart for the first time since early February. Because the peak is just three points above our minimum upside target, the two together constitute a kind of 'double resistance'. We should therefore assume that any rally that gets past them is likely to head for blue sky above late January's record high. ______ UPDATE (July 25, 8:13 p.m.): Today's running of the bulls -- and squeezing of the bears -- pushed the futures above the 2848.00 peak noted above, all but guaranteeing a test of January's all-time higher at 2889.00.

The New York Daily News isn't folding, not quite yet, but it put one foot in the grave Monday with the announcement that half of the editorial staff has been laid off. Speaking as a former newspaper editor, what I'll miss most when the paper eventually phases out newsprint editions is the outrageous headlines on the cover page. Click here for a collection of some of the best. The trick for tabloid copy editors is to come up with grabby headlines that fit in a space often no more than five or six letters wide. Often, that leaves room only for expletives (see inset) to trumpet the stories inside.  The Daily News always put the working man first, and its editorial board was no friend of Trump's, to put it mildly. Relative to other tabloids, the News' daily fare has never been as salacious as Fleet Street's scandal sheets, nor as outrageous as grocery-store-checkout magazines. Among those laid off was the editor-in-chief, Jim Rich. "If you hate democracy and think local governments should operate unchecked and in the dark," he tweeted, "then today is a good day for you."  Sadly, this is true, although it is predictable that newspapers will have a digital resurgence at some point. Why do I say that? Simply because even if brick-and-mortar newspapers are dying in droves, Americans' appetite for news, particularly local stories, remains insatiable.

Buyers looked stoked at the close for the short cruise implied by the 2832.25 target shown. It looks all but certain to be reached, but night owls will have to approach the opportunity cautiously. Specifically, I'll suggest waiting for a B-C pullback from around 2816.75, the high so far this evening. But here's the catch: Do NOT do the trade if the pullback comes from above highs made last week at 2818.25, or if the point 'C' low is not razor sharp. Pivoteers may have noticed that a 'mechanical' trade initiated Friday at the red line would have survived the implied 2878.75 stop-loss on Friday, and again on Sunday night, when the futures opened on thee bars of selling. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 9:07 a.m. EDT): The trade triggered at 2813.25 off a small pattern (15-min, A= 2810.25 at 6:15 p.m.), but I'll wait to hear from subscribers in the chat room before I establish a tracking position. A swoon overnight was survivable if one had taken a partial profit at p=2816.75 and used 2832.25 as a target. ______ UPDATE (11:12 a.m.): No takers, evidently. In any case, the futures have fallen 11 points after topping this morning at 2831.25, a single point from my target.