Rick Ackerman

The September contract ended the week on a not particularly appealing 'mechanical' buy signal. I am not wild about it because of the weak, herky-jerky price action so far in the C-D stage of the pattern. Usually, it is the forthrightness of the AB impulse leg that determines whether we should use a mechanical set-up. In this case, however, the C-D leg is the problem. It took a second try to reach the red line once a 'C' low was formed, and this suggests buyers were stressed just to keep the futures nominally afloat on Friday. Regardless, if they can push this hoax above the red line (2807.25) on Sunday evening or Monday morning, it would signal more upside to at least 2821.50.

Stocks have had a pretty good run-up since their last swing low on June 28. Rallies in the FAANG stocks in particular have been quite impressive-- as well they should be, since they are far and away the main beneficiaries of the huge sums of money recklessly thrown at the stock market each day by portfolio managers. The stocks also benefit from the  fact that the companies themselves have nothing better to do with hundreds of billions of dollars in spare cash than buy back their own shares. The effect is to inflate their PE multiples without producing a dime's worth of economic growth. Earnings are due out this week for Google, Facebook and Amazon, so we'll know soon how eager DaBoyz are to continue pumping Other People's Money into a handful of stocks. If you think the aging bull market will sell for 30 times earnings before it tops, the current multiple of around 24 for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 leaves plenty of room for the mania to continue.

Is Silver's long bear market over? If so, it would be exciting news for bulls who have suffered through a hellacious, 72% correction since the metal peaked in 2011 just beneath $50. The monthly chart (see inset) provides reason for cautious optimism, implying as it does that Comex futures could be bottoming slightly above $15. If a powerful and sustained upturn lies in the offing, the September contract would need to hold above 15.093, a midpoint 'Hidden Pivot' support shown in the chart (see inset). It bounced precisely from this number a year ago and is trying to hold above it now. A small breach of a few pennies would not likely prove fatal, but a more decisive one of perhaps 30-40 cents would. That would probably doom this vehicle to a further slide to at least 12.221, the pattern's 'secondary' Hidden Pivot, or even to the 'D' target at 9.350 (although I seriously doubt things will get that ugly). The pattern from which I have derived these targets is a textbook-perfect beauty, and that's why I have strong confidence in it. Accordingly, I would suggest using it regularly to get an accurate 'read' on Silver's price action in the weeks and months ahead. The chart further suggests that Silver must push above a peak at 21.525 recorded in July 2014 to launch a sustainable move that would have the potential to reach 55.055.  As a practical matter, we needn't wait for Silver to rally above 21.525 to take speculative long positions with risk under very tight control. That is possible from current levels, using the hourly chart, which would turn impulsively bullish with a push above 15.595. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 8:23 p.m.): Today's weak selloff follows a high earlier in the day that failed to surpass some peaks

The August futures set up such an appealing buying opportunity for bulls Monday that several subscribers jumped on it when a timely 'mechanical' entry strategy was posted in the chat room. Alas, anyone who got long toward the end of the day watched the trade sink precipitously overnight, stopping out the position for a loss of around $600 per contract. As a rule, when a juicy Hidden Pivot trade set-up flops so miserably, it can pay to quickly reverse the position and do the opposite. In this case, however, going short seems no more appealing than going long, since bullion has been treating bears almost as badly as bulls. 'Too Much Hopefulness' My gut feeling is that the seemingly perfect 'mechanical' entry failed because there are still too many hopeful bulls out there. It would appear that they view each and every $20 rally as the first stage of a move to $2000, and that's why gold has acted so leaden.  Disrupting this familiar pattern and setting the stage for a sustained rally will likely require one last, brutal shakeout. That would logically imply a dive below the key low at 1230.70 recorded almost exactly a year ago.  If and when this happens, tune to the chat room for a possible 'counterintuitive' entry plan. In the meantime, I plan to ratchet up my skepticism and tune out the "Any-day-now!" bullishness of some of my guru colleagues. I'll let the charts speak for themselves. This might have saved us some pain, since I green-lighted Monday's trade even though gold had yet to exceed a 1274.40 benchmark flagged in my last update. For now, I will raise the bar to  1286.90. A rally over the next 2-3 days that hits that price would not likely be a fake. _______ UPDATE (July 17,

Stocks struggled valiantly to sell off on Thursday, but the Dow was never down more than 150 points. Permabears shouldn't despair, however, since it's always lightest before the dusk.  Gold got support late in the day when Trump castigated the Fed for, of all things, tightening; but don't expect the ebullience in precious metals to last. He'll have to pull out all the stops to tank the economy sufficiently to bring quantitative easing back into style. Is that perhaps what he intends by socking auto importers with a 25% surcharge? Regardless, he's certainly got a knack for helping us forget whatever popped out of his mouth last. Something having to do with Putin, wasn't it?

AMZN seems destined to hit $2000, but today's chart (see inset) provides a 'Hidden Pivot' target at 2007.92 to precisely inform our expectations.  From a technical standpoint it's not quite a done deal, however, since the stock struggled for more than a month to escape the gravitational pull of the 1680.40 'midpoint resistance' shown. This is not necessarily a sign of weakness, but merely of hesitancy. AMZN doesn't spend much time flailing around, but the chart makes clear that it did in fact stumble several times since early April. These are normal and necessary adjustments that have invariably produce the bullish wilding sprees that are AMZN's trademark.  Shares are up 56% since January, but we'll need to take any stalls seriously because of the way buyers stalled at the midpoint resistance. That means that even the so far moderate selloff from Wednesday's 1859 high could be the start of a more significant correction. Set a screen alert at 1797.37, since that's where it would become mildly troubling. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 8:34 p.m. EDT): Short-term, AMZN looks ripe for tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1783.18. An easy breach of the support would portend more slippage down to as low as 1758.67. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 7:46 p.m.): Tuesday's gap-up opening would have trapped quite a few bulls, but it didn't scare them away for long. By late afternoon they were back in droves, pushing the stock toward the intraday high even though it had not even filled the gap created on the opening. For now, use p=1858.36 as a minimum rally target (daily chart, A=1682.15 on 7/5). _______ UPDATE (July 25, 8:30 p.m.) Buyers impaled the 1858.36 resistance, suggesting their appetite for more stock remains unsatisfied. The D target associated with this

We spent more time than usual on the lesser charts during this session, since price movement on the major exchanges was hard to see on the larger charts. The result was an excursion into ‘camouflage’ ephemera, and a couple of opportunities to force trades whether we liked them or not. A counterintuitive set-up in AMZN would up being one of the more interesting possibilities, since it entailed a buy-stop entry. This tactic carries considerable risk in an $1800 stock that can leap $2-$3 between ticks, but as you will see, where there’s a will there’s a way.

Who could have imagined just a couple of months ago that stocks would continue to ascend with a full-blown trade war brewing? Most of us thought Trump was just playing poker, but if that is the case the pot has grown big enough to become scary. We all have some skin in the game, and not just because we buy little stuff from China that comes in packages from Amazon. The 25% levy on imported cars, for instance, will raise their average price by a reported $5800. That might be good news for American manufacturers who assemble cars from parts and materials made in the USA, but this is just a minuscule part of the market.  Many in the car business seem to doubt Trump will actually go through with it, but if he does implement a 25% tariff it will cause serious dislocations in the U.S. economy, with unforeseeable repercussions. Wall Street seems not to care, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't as well.

One can only shudder at the thought of what Putin thinks of Trump now.  Will the President ever live it down?  His embarrassing flip-flop on the question of whether Russia meddled in the 2016 election makes George Bush's 'Mission Accomplished!' banner look like a relative public relations coup in comparison. The irony is that even if the Rooskies did try to sway votes Trump's way by dissing Hillary in the blogosphere, the effort could not have had much of an effect. As most Americans, even those afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome, must surely recognize, it would have been easier for Russia's special-ops team to convert Mormons to Shiites. Did They Back the Wrong Horse? Nor will any U.S. accusations, even backed by hard proof and a slew of indictments, likely dissuade Russia's nefarious opinion shapers from trying again in 2020. Their kind of shadowy activity is intrinsic to the medium, and rather than fear them, we should count on them to exploit their sinister talents to-the-max every chance they get. In the meantime, no one should act shocked that the government of one of the most corrupt countries on Earth should have tried using Facebook and other online venues to swing the U.S. election its way. Even then, one could argue that the poor saps bet on the wrong horse -- that Hillary would have been easier for Putin & Co. to deal with. The only thing that should concern us is whether Campaign Trump actively conspired with Team Putin to stir up anti-Clinton sentiment online. Even the half of America that hates Trump can't seriously believe this happened.  Whatever the Russians did, or at least tried to do, we should find the good humor to appreciate it for its entertainment value.  Viewing Mueller's indictment of 12 Russians as political