Rick Ackerman

AMZN's heedless sponsors goosed the stock to an intraday high at 1841.29 that missed an 1843.29 target I'd spotlighted earlier by $1.34, or less than 1%. The stock plummeted $28 thereafter, but because subscriber interest in the target, and in leveraging it to get short, were next to nil in the chat room, I haven't established a tracking position. For your information, expiring 1750 puts were the first out-of-the-moneys one could have bought for less than 1.00 when the stock was topping. They traded down to 0.88 before rocketing to 3.04 in a little more than two hours. This is not quite 'jackpot' odds, however, since we usually look for at least a quadrupling in price. For now, we'll move to the sidelines and watch, since Monday's high could turn out to be an important one. _______ UPDATE (July 17, 9:11 p.m. EDT): It didn't. The stock is the most bankable sure thing in the world of managed money, and that's why it will continue to rampage higher until the heavenly trumpets sound. Use 1864.24, a minor Hidden Pivot, as a minimum upside objective for now._______ UPDATE (July 18, 2018): The stock is consolidating rather more than it needs to for a push to our 1864.24 target, so let me introduce another at 1892.77 that will warrant our consideration if and when buyers push this zeppelin above the 1862.02 midpoint resistance.

Today's chart returns our focus to a key peak at 2814.00 recorded in mid-March just before the futures plunged 257 points. Monday's high fell five points shy of it, but buyers will need to exceed it in order to generate a bullish impulse leg on the weekly/daily charts. It would be the first such impulse leg since the market took an even bigger header in February, and it would put the 3005.75 target shown nominally in play.  Just to be cautious, and to avoid getting taken in by a false breakout, we will think this through as a possible 'counterintuitive' short, using 2814.00 as the point 'A' high of the short-able pattern. Assuming Monday's high at 2809.00 stands, a decline over the next couple of days  to 2744.75 would trip the entry signal. ______ UPDATE (July 17, 9:15 p.m.): The futures are ratcheting above 2814.00 tonight, bidding fair to achieve at least 2832.25 over the very near-term.  The fact that they did not pull back to the green line to give us a 'mechanical' buying opportunity attests to the eagerness of  buyers. Here's the latest chart. _______ UPDATE (July 29, 6.21 p.m.): Today's cantankerous price action lowered my immediate target somewhat, to 2827.00. Midpoint resistance lies at 2813.75, two ticks above today's peak. A fall below 2800.25 would invalidate the target.

Trump's meeting with Putin in Helsinki on Monday is unlikely to move the markets, but it is bound to be followed with rapt attention around the world.  Sen. Schumer is pressuring the president to ask about alleged Russian meddling in the last U.S. presidential election, but that is well down the list of Europe's concerns. Merkel, Macron et al. are more worried about Trump selling them out by not even mentioning the war in Ukraine or Putin's invasion of Crimea -- other than to blame these incursions once again on Obama. Crimea is off the table as far as the Russian leader is concerned, although not its consequences.  He'll be looking for Trump to lift economic sanctions that were imposed at the time of the invasion, and to put pressure on Europe to follow suit. In return, Putin might be willing to help contain Iran's presence in Syria, a very messy job that the U.S. is incapable of doing itself without risking war. The 'Afterglow' All in all, the Helsinki meeting promises to be far more interesting than the NATO powwow just concluded. Both leaders will be eager to show the world substantive results. Trump might succeed in creating the superficial impression that the U.S. and Russia can get along, but such is the world's distrust of Putin that the afterglow is likely to be short-lived.  Trump, anticipating this, has already said his expectations for the meeting are low.

Because mid-May's multiyear high at 3.11% precisely matched a target I'd sent out to subscribers five months earlier when rates were around 2.35%, I was open to the possibility that yields had made a major top.  This seemed even more likely when the Ten-Year Note plunged to 2.76% over the next 12 days. Now, however, a strong recovery rally has shortened the odds of a move to new highs.  is a  If it is coming, it would generate headwinds above 3.25% sufficient to slow the U.S. economy or even suffocate it, since rates for mortgages and car leases would rise as well. At the very least, based on the chart shown, Ten-Year Note yields look very likely to challenge the May high, since the target is actually 0.04 points above it. The rally could turn out to be a bull trap, either by forming a double top or, less likely, an upthrust to new heights that reverses precipitously. A third possibility is that, once above May's highs, rates will continue to rise. Whatever the case, I will be monitoring this vehicle closely, since a move into the 3.25%-3.50% range would significantly reduce the flow of oxygen to the U.S. economy's heart and lungs -- i.e., housing and autos. ______ UPDATE (June 14, 9:14 p.m. EDT): Check out the $TYX.X tout above, since it recalibrates my thinking about where long-term rates may be headed. ______ UPDATE (June 17, 5:10 p.m.): Rates on the Ten-Year now look primed for a fall to at least 2.831, a compelling midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart.  However, if the support is breached decisively (i.e. 28.00 or lower), look for yields to fall to as low as 2.653 over the near term. _______ UPDATE (July 15): Rates on the Ten-Year have been flirting with

We've been using an 1843.29 rally target to stay confidently on the right side of AMZN's relentless surge, but today's chart shows what's possible if the stock blows past it. Price action at the 'p' midpoint pivot (1680) has not been so precise that I can guarantee the stock will hit the D target within the usual dime or two and then tank. However, the pattern underlying the target is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that the number 2007.92 will be useful to us, especially for shorting cautiously against a seemingly unstoppable trend. For now, though, I'd suggest focusing on 1843.29 as a minimum upside objective. I'd be surprised if this 'hidden' resistance gives way easily, but if that happens, the 2007.92 target would be well in play. More immediately, expect more upside to at least 1863.39 over the near term if 1843.29 falls in less than an hour or two.

The pattern shown looks quite reliable, meaning that a decisive move past the 2799.00 midpoint pivot shown (see inset) should clear the way to 2832.25, the pattern's D target. The futures stalled at the pivot on Thursday, and it remains to be seen whether AMZN's rampage will suffice to pull the broad averages along for another day -- a Friday the 13th, as it happens. Elsewhere on the page, I've raised a yellow flag predicated on AMZN's finishing the day head-butting its 1843.29 rally target. If so, I'll recommend taking home a small short position either in this vehicle or in a companionable, equity-based instrument such as DIA (using put options). Be prepared to escape or to hedge your exposure on Sunday night if buyers should run amok. That's a squeeze we should want to short -- but on Monday morning, after it has run its course. _______ UPDATE (July 15, 5:08 p.m. EDT): We took no position, since both AMZN and the E-Mini S&Ps still have a ways to go before reaching their respective rally targets.  If they get there simultaneously, I'm still recommending that you stake out a small put position in DIA. In the meantime, this vehicle would become a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line (2782.38), stop 2765.50. The order should be place after index futures begin to trade Sunday night.

In the tout above, I wax mildly bullish on $TNX.X, a vehicle that tracks interest rates on the U.S. Ten-Year Note. This implies that I am bullish on rates and believe they will rise, but bearish on the Note itself, because its price would fall.  Now, with an insightful nudge from my friend Doug Behnfield, a Boulder-based financial adviser whose thoughts have been featured here many times, I am persuaded to take a closer look at both vehicles. Lo, the chart of $TYX.X, which tracks rates on the U.S. 30-Year Bond, reinforces a somewhat different conclusion -- i.e., that long-term rates are headed lower, perhaps significantly so. (To embrace this point of view would make me a bond bull, since bond prices would rise rise as yields fell.) From a technical standpoint, the crucial number here is 2.994%. Rates look very likely to fall at least to this level. But if they easily trounce that 'Hidden Pivot' support, trading 2.970% or lower intraday, or if rates close for two consecutive days beneath the pivot, I'd infer that they are headed  down to at least 2.847%. At that level, the same observations would obtain: a quick and decisive breach would portend still-lower rates. I've set an alert and will keep you closely apprised, so stay tuned to this tout if you care. _______ UPDATE (July 15): I've adjusted my downside target to 2.874%, which is where I now expect rates on the 30-year to fall over the near term. The revision uses a one-off 'A' and yields a 3.007% midpoint support that precisely caught an interim low low. (It also offered a fine 'mechanical' short on the June 22 rally back up to the green line). Here's the new chart. _______ UPDATE (July 25, 8:18 p.m.): TYX is showing rather more

Amazon shares are closing fast on an 1843.29 target that I had thought would take longer to achieve. I'd be surprised if this Hidden Pivot resistance gives way easily, but if it does there's a target just above $2000 that presumably would be in play. The current, parabolic rally is unsustainable, or course, but that doesn't mean we should try to intercept it too aggressively by fading the trend.  Regardless, it behooves us to care a great deal about AMZN because it is the best bellwether we could conceivably have for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy. Moreover, the stock's maniacal trajectory is so riveting that it has become manifestly capable of taking investors' fevered minds off the ongoing tariff wars, at least for stretches of a day or two. If Everything's Going Gangbusters... On Thursday, the effect was sufficiently powerful to pull the Dow and the S&Ps along, although not nearly as steeply as AMZN itself.  Any divergence would be warning traders to reef the sails, but recently the stock has not gotten out-of-synch with the broad averages for more than a day. That said, I remain wary of a bull trap getting set on a Friday the 13th. If everything looks like gangbusters at the final bell and AMZN is head-butting the 1843.29 target, I'd suggest taking home a few cheap puts over the weekend just in case.

Say this for bulls, they are not going quietly into the night. With the trade war growing increasingly heated, the Dow Industrials were down a measly 219 points on Wednesday. The chart shown, of Dow index futures, leaves one wondering what the heck sellers are waiting for. Understandably, they ran out of steam overnight after DaBoyz engineered an instantaneous plunge to avoid sucking up unwanted contracts the whole way down. But thereafter, bears couldn't muster even a small show of fear for the remainder of the day. The shameless sissies. There are a few possible explanations that come to mind, to wit: 1) those who are not yet panicking to exit stocks simply don't understand the situation; 2) Wall Street believes Trump is about to tell China he was only kidding; or, 3) the sleazeballs who control the markets are deftly holding shares aloft until they've distributed as much stock as possible to widows, pensioners and the rest of the hoi-polloi. And it's not as though higher tariffs are the only thing investors have to worry about. I won't repeat the list yet again, but each item continues to grow more menacing. Higher energy prices, for one. We've talked about the prospect of crude oil settling in above $80 a barrel, but more immediately, it is prices at the pump that should concern. They are creeping toward an average $3 across the U.S., up from $2.26 a year ago. A Trump Reversal Is Undiscounted The nightmare scenario would be for Trump to hang tough on tariffs for long enough to cause the stock market to collapse. Remember how shares roared higher in 2017, driven by perceptions that a Trump presidency would be as good for American business as it would ever get?  Now picture that rally in reverse when it