Rick Ackerman

Index futures opened sluggishly following a three-day weekend. However, the economic calendar suggests the pace may pick up in the days ahead. T-bill auctions on Tuesday will give us a good read on demand at the short end of the yield curve, but the more important news will be the release of FOMC notes on Wednesday.  Existing home sales will be reported out that day as well, and it will be interesting to see whether the headlines support the strong recovery rally since the bombed-out low on Friday, February 9.

Bulls got sandbagged Friday when a promising rally in the early going turned suddenly into a $17 drop. However, the good news is that this occurred after the April contract had pushed above a key 'external' peak at 1361.00 labeled in the chart, generating a fresh, bullish impulse leg. Buyers failed to capitalize on this when they allowed the futures to dip beneath the 1350.80 low recorded a day earlier. It would have made an good launching pad if bulls had not been so exhausted. Look for more weakness in the days ahead, but please note that a rally of $6.25 or more would signal a possible bullish reversal. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:47 p.m.): How dreary!  Gold will lose some of its luster -- and my good will, technically speaking -- if this correction exceeds the 1319.10 low recorded on Valentine's Day. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 6:28 p.m.):  Assuming it goes no lower than Wednesday's 1324.40 low, April Gold would need to pop to 1335.70 today -- and close above it -- to register a pulse. _______UPDATE (Feb 22, 10:55 p.m.): The futures tripped a weak buy signal, but I'd suggest getting long only if you know how to 'camo' your way aboard on the five-minute chart. If you know why 1336.20 matters, you're qualified to do the trade. Be a Pivoteer hero! Consider sharing the trade with the chat room if it triggers.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 26, 5:38 p.m.): Buyers must push this cinder block above 1345.60 -- and close it above that number for at least two consecutive days -- to demonstrate that they are serious.  Thereupon, a 1368.20 target would be in play.

The futures rallied 50 points off their lows Thursday, topping a single point from the 2737.75 target I'd sent out to subscribers the night before.  At the time, I'd suggested getting long with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line; alas, the pullback from overnight highs didn't even come down to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2682.38.  Even so, those who drilled down to the very lesser charts in search of a 'camouflage' entry setup as I'd advised were rewarded with a trade signaled as early in the rally as 2692.25.  The trigger point is shown here, and getting long would have risked just 1.00 point ($50) theoretical per contract. So where are the futures headed next?  To at least 2758.88, as far as I can surmise. Expect a potentially tradable pullback from that Hidden Pivot, but if it is decisively exceeded or the futures close above it for two consecutive days, it would put a 2988.75 target in play. That would be 115 points above the old record high -- equivalent to 1000 Dow points. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:08 p.m. EST): Friday's rally peaked within four points of the 2758.88 resistance, but this caused no change in my guidance.

If AAPL can hurdle the midpoint resistance at 173.97 (see inset), particularly if it does so decisively, it's going to be a romp to the 178.32 target. That would put the stock within easy distance of the 180.10 all-time high recorded a month ago. After hitting that mark the stock went into a hellacious, $30 dive. However, the speed with which that loss has been recouped strongly implies that the bull market is alive and well. AAPL's performance has enormous significance for the stock market as a whole, since, by capitalization, it is the most valuable stock in the world. We'll stay focused in the meantime on the 173.97 Hidden Pivot, since it is such an important number. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:05 p.m. EST): Buyers popped the stock above 173.97, setting up a possible 'mechanical' buying opportunity on a pullback to the green line (171.80), stop 169.62. I'd suggest 200 shares if you are just getting your feet wet with this type of trade. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 7:14 a.m.): I've corrected the chart with a new point 'C' that effectively lowers the bid to 171.50, stop 169.19. If you bought as initially directed, that would raise your entry risk by 30 cents per share.  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can adjust my guidance accordingly. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.): No fills reported, but I would urge anyone interested in 'mechanical' trades, or skeptical about how well and easily they work, compare the actual chart (15-min) with my trade recommendation.  The stock bottomed at 171.52, implying the 'mechanical' bid I'd advised would have missed getting you aboard by two cents. Even so, the pattern and rationale for the trade are picture-perfect. At the moment, the theoretical profit on a four-lot position would be slightly

The Dow's leap Friday well above an important prior peak and a major midpoint pivot (p) at 25047 significantly shortens the odds of a further rally to the 26734 target shown. For the moment, however, I'd suggest using 25,890, the secondary pivot', as a minimum upside objective. If it's hit by Thursday, or better yet exceeded, that would make additional progress to 26734 a lock-up as far as I'm concerned.  For trading purposes, and to sharply reduce risk, we can use the relatively short A-B segment begun 24490 on Feb 14 for entry set-ups. Stay tuned to the chat room for real time guidance on this if the opportunity beckons.

Elsewhere on the page you will find bullish forecasts for the E-Mini S&Ps and AAPL, the world's most valuable stock. I'll mention as well that the Dow is close to signaling a 1500-point rally to the 26734 target shown. That may sound quite optimistic, but if and when the Indoos get there I will be turning very cautious, since every trader on earth would be bullish as all get-out. Most bullish of all would be short-covering bears, ironically about to exhaust what little remains of their buying power just inches from The Top.  If Mr. Market is planning to set the hook, I cannot conceive of a better way for Him to do it. You can join the bullish stampede if you wish, but just remember to keep Dow 26734 in mind on the ascent.

We found two trade set-ups on a morning when the markets had gone bonkers before the opening because of an unexpected jump in the CPI. Stocks reversed very sharply after the initial hysteria subsided, allowing us to find extraordinary opportunities in Crude Oil and the E-Mini S&Ps. By day’s end, rallies in each went on to produce excellent outcomes. You will be surprised at how very little was risked initiating these two trades – one using a ‘counterintuitive’ set-up; the other, ‘camouflage’.

The futures are within easy distance of a clear and obvious target at 2708.50 noted here previously. The nutty dive before the opening did not affect my outlook, although it did generate an alternative target at 2737.75 that should be used if the lower number is exceeded intraday by more than 2.50 points or the futures close above it for two consecutive days. The chart shows the higher target. It also implies that a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (2654.69) could be used to get long, stop 2627.00. Since the initial risk would be more than $1300 per contract, I'd recommend using the mechanical signal to set up a 'camouflage' entry on the lesser charts. Stay close to the chat room if you seek guidance on this in real time.

The markets went bonkers Wednesday morning when it was announced before the opening that the Consumer Price Index had risen more than the usual suspects had estimated. (Who are those guys, anyway?) S&P futures dove nearly 50 points in mere minutes, the E-mini Dow shed an instant 500 points, Treasury paper plunged even more steeply than usual, and gold hit a $25 air pocket.  Then, moments later, everything but the Treasury paper reversed -- with a vengeance. Stocks, crude oil and bullion in particular embarked on steep rallies that continued for the remainder of the session.  As for the news, the actual increase in the CPI amounted to 0.5 percent over the previous month, driven in large part by a jump in apparel prices. If ever there were a headline for traders to fade, this was it. Those who did reaped a bonanza when the markets trampolined off their own, egregious misjudgment. If Wall Street pretends to care about inflation in the future, we should remember this day before we buy into the phony narrative about serious inflation being right around the corner. It ain't gonna happen.