Rick Ackerman

AAPL, the world's most valuable publicly traded company, is taking the stealth route higher, providing quiet leadership for the entire stock market. Why "stealth"? Although the point 'B' high in the chart shown appeared to have made a double top with the 163.72 peak recorded on February 6, the latter peak actually exceeded the former by 17 cents. That created a bullish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart, refreshing its energy and clearing a path to at least 166.77. If the rally gets by that Hidden Pivot resistance easily it would strongly imply that the bull is resurgent -- and not just in AAPL.  Subscribers looking to get aboard belatedly can attempt it with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (162.93), stop 161.64. If the stock doesn't pull back, you may need to substitute a 'camouflage' entry trigger. Stay tuned to chat-room discussion for guidance on this, since there are usually a few Pivoteers around who will know exactly how it's done. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:41 p.m.): The stock rebounded so robustly this morning that it should be considered bound for the 194.78 target shown. This Hidden Pivot is an oldie, but it is looking more and more like a goody. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 9:36 a.m.): The 162.93 'mechanical'  bid I'd advised above caught the low of yesterday's dive on the opening bar within a nickel. The stock so far has rallied $7. If you did the trade according to my instructions, please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

We've learned to look for rallies in gold whenever we start to feel a small twinge of despair. Lo, the April contract delivered right on schedule after I sounded this mildly despairing note in a tout sent out to you Monday evening: "Gold’s rallies have been so pathetic lately that the contrarian in me says it may be about to pop." Gold did indeed pop, overshooting the 1331.90 target I'd flagged by a technically significant $1.50.  Then the futures went on to exceed an 'external' peak I'd mentioned at 1334.80, refreshing the bullish energy of the hourly chart. The implication is that the futures are now on their way to at least 1349.30, the only significant resistance on the near horizon.If they can hurdle it, too, we'll raise our sights to the 1370.50 peak recorded on January 25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 10:36 a.m.): Gold has had a spectacular rally this morning -- a $30 surge following a nasty shakedown on bearish CPI news.  The high so far is 1350.40, putting the 1370.50 benchmark noted above within shooting distance.

I've provided some precise benchmarks that could help us determine whether the bull market is merely correcting or ...over. To follow along diligently, check out my latest tout for the E-Mini S&Ps as well as tonights' updates for AMZN and BA. If all three trading vehicles synch up in bullish fashion, you can be confident that the go-ahead signal is valid. Alternatively, if they all relapse and crush downside Hidden Pivot targets, that would hold bearish implications for the stock market as a whole. No matter what happens I will continue to monitor their vital signs, and those of other key stocks, on the lesser charts. Realize that no BIG change can possibly occur, technically speaking, without becoming manifest initially on the intraday charts.

Today's chart is the one I've been trading for the last week.  It is bearish, with an unfulfilled downside target at 2492.75 and a worst-case low of 2377.25. If you play it strictly by the Hidden Pivot rule book, the futures became a 'mechanical' short when they rallied to the green line (2668.25) near the end of Monday's session. Since the trade calls for a stop-loss at 2727.00 that would risk nearly $3000 per contract initially, I would tend to use charts of much smaller degree, 'camouflage'-style, to pare the risk of getting short to more like $60-$100 theoretical. I offer the chart not for your explicit trading guidance, but to allow you to see more clearly the bearish framework within which the rally from Friday's low has proceeded. I am not persuaded strongly either way as to whether a bear market has begun, although my gut instinct leans in that direction at the moment. I would feel more strongly about it if: 1) the mechanical short from 2668.25 goes on to become a big winner; and, 2) the implied downdraft easily exceeds the 2492.75 target. In any case, I will continue to trust my technical runes above all, since they are free of the emotions and dubious citations of fact that are dominating public debate right now. From a practical standpoint, getting a good read on the bull/bear will require paying attention to one simple piece of evidence, to wit: If downtrending, ABC-type corrections start to exceed their 'D' targets, and upward ABC patterns start to fall short of theirs, that would shorten the odds that we are indeed in a bear market. Stay tuned if you care. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 8:17 p.m. EST): Despite the bearishness of the analysis above, it's possible to interpret Tuesday's price action

As powerful as Friday's rebound may have seemed, the Dow Industrials had not exceeded a single prior peak on the hourly chart when the dust settled. The rally will have to get past a second at 25185 to generate a bullish impulse leg on the chart shown, and to surpass Feb 1's 26306 to equal that feat on the daily chart. We should tune out the hubris until this happens, but without waxing too skeptical about the possibility, since there is still enough violent energy in the markets to accomplish just about anything imaginable in the space of a single day.

Friday's bounce seemed impressive. However, from a technical standpoint it reminded me of the movie hero who has taken a bullet through the middle of his chest but still manages to sprint to his girlfriend's open arms before dying. In this case the fatal bullet in the chest is the E-Mini S&P's dip beneath the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2552.00 that is key to interpreting the chart. Typically, when the midpoint support has been decisively exceeded as it has been here, it means the dominant trend is likely to continue to the next level. That would imply a fall to at least 2464.63, the pattern's 'secondary pivot'.  That is what I currently expect, notwithstanding the fact that the March contract rebounded a spectacular 107 points Friday in under two hours. The chart knows nothing of the hubris and high-fives that swept Wall Street and the news media at the closing bell.  I'll put my money on the chart, though, stipulating that to negate my very bearish target, the futures would have to close for two consecutive days below the red line without having exceeded 2726.75.  Even then I would be reluctant to sound the all-clear, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Let me emphasize again that Boeing is THE stock to watch if we want to know for sure whether the bull market is over. Having easily outclimbed AMZN, MSFT, FB and GOOG for the last two years, BA is arguably the number one favorite of portfolio managers.  At Wednesday's highs, they had extended the stock's sharp bounce by a little more than $12, effectively recouping 82% of what had been lost in the mini-crash of the previous two days. Even so, bulls are not quite out of the woods. First, we should like to see them close the stock for two consecutive days above the orange line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 351.61.  That would make a further rally to the pattern's 385.53 target no worse than an even-odds bet. Were that to occur, it's safe to assume the broad averages and many, if not necessarily most, stocks would follow. Rather than try to predict the outcome, we'll simply wait for BA to tell us what is. Stay tuned for further updates. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 5:46 p.m.): The 351.61 midpoint resistance shown in the chart has forcefully repelled bulls, opening a path to as low as 309.53 over the near term. If that Hidden Pivot doesn't hold, Boeing shares could be in serious trouble for the first time in as long as we can recall._______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 5:04 p.m.): The stock has so far avoided falling to 309.53, but it will still need to push above 351.61 to get out of jeopardy. _______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 6:15 p.m.): The push above 351.61, if and when it comes, has singularly important implications for the stock market as a whole. Click here for an updated chart -- and I suggest staying glued to it.  

With about 90 minutes left on the clock Tuesday, I thought the Dow Average was a goner.  It looked primed for a thousand-point header to a Hidden Pivot target at 23,192.  Lo, bulls got second wind, extending an earlier, opening-hour binge to a threshold where it looked like bears were in worse trouble than bulls.  Notice in the chart that the thrust that occurred in the last 90 minutes exceeded three prior peaks, including two 'external' ones. This created a powerful impulse leg whose strength is somewhat masked by the relatively short length of the A-B segment. It also implies that a pullback of as much as 700-800 points from current levels would be merely corrective -- i.e., a buying opportunity. So far, short-covering bears have seen no such opportunity, only a shallow retracement that has left them painfully exposed and anxious. As veteran market-watchers know, the hallmark of a mature bull market is its ability to recoup steep plunges very quickly with equally steep rallies -- rallies that don't give bearish doubts enough time to take root. Bulls will have pulled off this trick if they can extend for just one more day the uptrend that was in progress at the final bell. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:33 p.m.): The Industrial Average finished the day looking somewhat more bullish than the E-Mini S&Ps, but not much. If it cracks the green line, that would increase the likelihood of a further drop to the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 24423. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 5:52 p.m.):  My new target is 22,766, based on this pattern.  It is likely to be reached because of the decisive penetration on Thursday of a key midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 24029. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 5:04 p.m.): The Indoos have bounced almost precisely from

March T-Bond futures have now closed for two consecutive weeks below the 145^02 midpoint support of the big downtrend shown. This is quite bearish, implying as it does that a further fall to 130^20 could lie ahead. Odds of this will shorten if and when the key low at 142^31 recorded in September 2014 gives way. If the 130^20 downside target is reached, it would correspond to an interest rate of about 3.74% on the 30-Year -- up very dramatically from a current 3.13%. That would obviously have a very significant impact on a U.S. economy that has become dependent on ultra-low interest rates.  CNBC's panel of 'experts,' including Maria Bartiromo, said recently that rates above 3% would be no big deal, since the U.S. economy has survived rates well above 10% on long-term bonds. This is idiotic, since the high rates did not follow a period of extremely low rates such as we have had for the last decade. Rates above 4%, if not an even lower threshold, will crush the housing and auto sectors and set stocks falling so hard that last week's big sell-off will look relatively mild in comparison. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 8:33 p.m.): I've grown unaccustomed to providing bullish updates for T-Bond futures, but the rally begun on Monday deserves our attention. The key hurdles lies just above, at the 145^01 midpoint pivot (click here for chart). If it is easily exceeded, that would shorten the odds of a further ascent to D=145^30. That's where the real test will take place, since a quick move past it would suggest the rally is likely to get legs. _______UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:45 p.m.): So much for that rally. It got turned into a blip by today's slide. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 9:35 p.m.): Set a screen