Rick Ackerman

Apple shares have held their own (see inset) against a spate of negative press, including most recently mounting concerns that iPhones, addictive as crack cocaine, are harming our children. Would Apple become less profitable if its social consciousness extended to the well-being of kids who are spending half their lives texting, browsing and streaming?  The inescapable fact is that such a change would dampen profits for the entire business world, since so much of it is tied to digital devices, social media and the virtual world of the Internet.  Television stoked similar fears about addiction in the 1960s (and thereafter), but those fears never seemed to impinge on the medium or its profitability. The Internet did, however -- ironically because it has proven far more addictive than the TV medium itself, commanding an even greater share of viewers' time than TV ever did, even in its heyday. As for the stock, from a technical standpoint AAPL still looks to be consolidating for a shot at a 184.10 target we've held in mind for months. The fact that the stock has maintained altitude and will undoubtedly continue to do so until the negative press blows out to sea suggests that its institutional sponsors are blithely unconcerned about the effects of social pressures on Apple, Inc. A downturn in iPhone sales is all they care about -- and even then, it has always been assumed that such weakness would at worst prove temporary.  It is only recession that DaBoyz should fear, since it would take a heavy toll on sales of Apple's ridiculously overpriced hardware, most particularly iPhone models snapped up by Apple-cult buyers for $1000 or more.

Yields on the Ten-Year Treasury Note pierced a crucial resistance at 2.57% Wednesday, setting them on a possible course to as high as 3.11% in the months ahead. If so, the U.S. economic recovery, such as it is, will be operating under a new set of rules and bucking serious headwinds. Those winds would become even more daunting as higher long-term rates back up into the short end of the yield curve. The effect is unlikely to be felt any time soon, but it is something to consider if you've been banking on Dow 30,000. The U.S. economy has become wholly dependent on easy credit, and so a turn of the screw that marginally increases the throw-weight of the Fed's perfunctory, now-and-again 25-basis-point rate hikes could conceivably prove fatal.

Elsewhere on this page I've drum-rolled a 27,251 target for the Dow Industrials. It lies 1866 point above Tuesday's closing price, so it should tide us over for a while. The bull has been knocking off lesser targets for months, but if it steamrollers this one, then perhaps the blue chip average is headed to 35,000 or higher as some seers have predicted. This is hard for me to imagine, but by now we should be used to having our imaginations stretched by the stock market's nearly vertical climb. The big question is, how long will it take buyers to cover this distance? The safe answer is: less time, probably, than we might imagine.

Buyers demolished yet another middling Hidden Pivot resistance Tuesday, much as they've been doing for the last nine years. I'd have laid odds that the 25,392 target (see inset) would show some stopping power, but it didn't. When the dust settled, the Indoos had topped 47 points above it at 25439. When a Hidden Pivot as clear and compelling as this one is so easily brushed aside, it strongly implies that bulls have sufficient buying power to push the blue chip average much higher. I'll back off targeting for a while until I can offer you a fresh one with the ability to shorten our odds for a successful trade north._______UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:41 p.m.): Back to the old drawing board. The 27,251 target shown should tide us over for a while, since it leaves nearly 1900 of upside for the Indoos to cover before they hit something ostensibly solid._______ UPDATE (Jan 17, 5:39 p.m.): If you enjoy hoping that each and every Hidden Pivot rally target could conceivably produce the Mother of All Tops -- I know I do -- then keep the number 26,416 in mind. That's a dark-horse-candidate 'hidden' resistance of somewhat lesser degree than the one at 27,251, and I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention it. For some of you, it could make Thursday's obligatory upthrust more interesting to watch. On the 120-minute chart, here are the coordinates that produced the target: A=22,219 on 9/25/17; B=24,534 on 12/4; and C=24,101 on 12/7. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 7:23 p.m.): So much for our 'dark-horse' target at 26,416 . Thursday's waft to 26458 exceeded it by a not insignificant 42 points, rendering it obsolete. We'll revert to the original target at 27,251 -- a high-confidence bet as far as I'm concerned. (So high-confidence, actually, that

Fox News gave the idea of an Oprah run for President in 2020 prominent play this evening, and why not? Trump's dark-horse candidacy proved that anyone with ultra-high name recognition has an automatic ticket into the primaries.  Oprah's ostensible qualifications for the office, such as they are, got a boost from the inspirational speech she gave in accepting a Golden Globe achievement award the other night. Her theme was the empowerment of women, and there's no doubt this charged topic is playing well ever since women declared all-out war a couple of months ago on the Harvey Weinsteins of the world. For perspective, and because politically liberal ideas are so seldom featured on this page, I offer the thoughts of one of my closest friends, Cynthia Robins, a former reporter and columnist for the San Francisco Examiner. Cynthia is an astute observer of the current scene as well as an inveterate, unapologetic liberal. I came across this post from her on my Facebook page, which can take on a life of its own even in my absence, sometimes for months.  She wrote as follows: 'Lazy Man's Fix' So Oprah has, over night, become a presidential candidate. People, get over yourselves! We already did that. See how THAT worked out. Donald Trump, anyone? Not that Oprah isn't smart And her heart isn't full and bleeding for the little guys like women, people of color and those disenfranchised by the Trump mob. But: She is the lazy man's quick fix for an enterprise which demands experienced leaders who started in the trenches of public service and who understand what governance in this country really means. Not based on showing off her wealth by giving away cars to 150 people at a crack or electrifying an audience of Hollywood celebrities with a stemwinder

I haven't given up on the lottery ticket we still hold -- four 19 Jan 28 calls acquired for 0.67 last week when VXX touched a longstanding bear-market target at 26.32. On Monday, after noodling around near that Hidden Pivot support for three days, VXX slipped below the water line, trading as low as 25.76 intraday before closing at 25.98. The overshoot may not look like much on the chart, but it amounts to a so-far 2.1% fall beneath my benchmark. It is astounding to me that such a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot has evinced no bounce whatsoever. In any event the options are keepers, bought as a high-leverage speculation that VXX would trampoline from somewhere very near 26.32. If it does not we will have exhausted all possible targets of interest, and it's unlikely we will try bottom-fishing again in the foreseeable future. There are some bigger downtrending patterns than the one I've used to project 26.32, but all of them yield D targets below zero.  In the past, this has sometimes implied, as it did in case of Bear Stearns and Lehman shares in 2007, that the companies were bound for bankruptcy. However, in this case it likely means VXX will continue to fall toward zero until it is reverse-split yet again by the DaBoyz so that more retail suckers can be enticed to buy put and call options from them.  They've been making enviable money with this shell-game for years, but it is predictable that most of it will be wiped away in just a few days when VXX finally explodes, as it surely must. But with the magic power of our 26.32 support very nearly spent, there is no point in our dreaming about catching that bottom and being on the profitable side when VXX's

The new year has begun with a powerful rally on Wall Street that is either rational or cravenous, depending on one's point of view. The best explanation I've heard so far views the rampaging bull as politically rational but economically insane. I shouldn't need to explain the latter, but Trump seems to be getting much of the credit for the former, since he arguably represents a shift from the most anti-business U.S. President in recent history to the most pro-business. Even so, with earnings multiples for many high fliers in triple digits, valuations are just a tad rich. However skeptical we might be, we shouldn't let it inhibit our bullish imagination. By my runes, technically speaking, there's still room for more...let's call it semi-rational exuberance. You might therefore find my latest bull-market target for the Dow Industrials interesting, especially since we're getting close. If you don't subscribe but want to know where the target lies, click here for a free two-week trial subscription to Rick's Picks. It will give you access to the 24/7 chat room as well, where great traders from around the world gather to swap ideas in real time, wise anecdotes, war stories and witticisms.

A run-up to the 1389.60 target (see inset) is not quite a done deal, but I'd say the odds are about 80% that it will be reached, probably within the next 3-4 weeks. Most of last week's price action occurred above the 1314.00 midpoint pivot, and that is bullish. Moreover, it has taken place following an upside breach of several very real 'external' peaks (labeled #1, #2 and #3) on the daily and intraday charts. All of this bodes well for bulls, who endured considerable pain and discouragement between early September and mid-December, when the futures slid nine percent, from 1365 to 1238. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 4:18 p.m.): Gold is taking a breather, but we won't know how much oxygen it needs until we've seen more corrective action.  A pullback to the green line at 1276.10 would be discouraging and maybe seem even a little scary, but for those of you who trade in and out of this vehicle, it would also trip a 'mechanical' buy signal for a ride to as high as 1389.60. ______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 4:17 p.m.): Bulls should take encouragement from the way Feb Gold has been cavorting above the 1314.00 midpoint pivot, turning it into a support for the next push higher. Check my GLD tout elsewhere on the page for an equity-based strategy to get long.

We've been using a 25278 target for quite some time, but Friday's close above it caused me to take another look at DJIA's intraday charts. As things have developed, they divulge an even more compelling target at 25392, so let's use it as a minimum upside projection. This is about 60 points higher than a corresponding target I've flagged for DIA, but the two vehicles are not perfectly synched, so the difference probably won't matter for trading purposes. This target is the last very clear one that can be extrapolated from the intraday charts, and it looks like a decent bet to stop the crazed herd in its tracks. If the Indoos simply plow right through it, though, take that as a sign that there is still considerable buying power remaining to be expended.