Rick Ackerman

With the Dow closing on a rally target I've been featuring here for a while, I looked for corresponding opportunities to get short using DIA puts. However, the possibilities are too numerous to give us good odds, so I am not recommending a specific trade.  For your guidance, however, if you are itching to  take the initiative, I will mention that D2=253.31 is the target most closely related to the one at 25,278 that I've proffered for the Indoos. It is also the pattern, of the three that are available, that picks up the most confirming 'hits' at the midpoint pivot, 247.21. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 5:30 p.m. EST): Buyers pushed DIA to within pitching wedge distance of the 253.31 target. If you've made money on the rally, be prepared to reverse the position or go short 'against the box' when the target is reached. Specifically, I'll recommend buying four 12 Jan 253 puts with DIA trading 253.27 or higher, day order.  They should be trading for around 0.55-0.60, but you can improve your odds of getting them at 'fair value' by closely monitoring the bid/asked spread when DIA gets with about 0.30 of the target.  Stop yourself out of the puts if they trade for 0.25 less than you paid for them. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 10:19 p.m.): Let's move out a week and down one strike, bidding 0.86 for four 19 Jan 252 puts, day order, with DIA trading 253.25 or higher. Check back if the options are out of range, since I may recommend raising our bid._______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 9:48 a.m.): Stocks are rallying this morning as usual, allowing subscribers to fill the order @0.81 or better. We'll risk $100 with a 0.56 stop-loss. Exit on a market stop if the puts trade there, good-till-canceled. Make

Friday's powerful rally peaked to-the-exact-tick at the 2743.25 target I'd proffered. With a 'top' of sorts in, is it now safe for bears to come out of hiding?  Hardly. The target would have made for an enticing short if it had been achieved earlier in the session. As things stand, however, shorting there on the closing bell would have been much riskier, since bears were left hanging on the ropes, presumably anxious about Sunday evening's opening. Assuming the futures continue to move higher -- as why should we not, since they've been moving higher for nearly nine years? -- we should keep the 2782.25 Hidden Pivot shown in mind as a minimum objective. This is the first time I've mentioned it, but it looks worthy of our attention, given the cluster of head-butts at the red line during the last two weeks of December. You can bid the futures mechanically at 2694.25, stop 2664.75, good through Tuesday, but be prepared to substitute a 'camouflage' entry at a higher level if the futures don't pull back. The chat room will be the best place to seek real-time guidance for this, so stay tuned or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you care.

We now see that DaBoyz were saving their firepower in those final, sluggish weeks leading up to 2018. The tactic of goosing the market into a vertical parabola as the new year begins is bound to scare off sellers. If so, we should see the broad averages accelerate to the upside over the next week or two. Which is to suggest that the 152-point rally in the Dow on Thursday was just a warm-up. Even if so, I've proffered a rally target in the E-Mini S&Ps that can help us determine whether to dive in ourselves, or simply marvel and be entertained by it.  However things play out, it won't be brute sellers who end the party, but tired buyers who are harder to detect.

Buyers continue to shred their way past Hidden Pivot targets without pausing for a moment's breath. I will continue to proffer these benchmarks nonetheless because: 1) their steadfast bullishness can help permabears stay out of trouble; 2)  they can serve as minimum price objectives for bull trades; and 3) they can be shorted with stops as tight as 1.25 points. All of which you should consider in relation to my latest target: 2743.25. That is where the futures are headed at a minimum, although I can't guarantee the target will show decisive stopping power. If bulls chomp through it effortlessly, you should take it as yet another sign that significantly higher prices impend.

We found some enticing opportunities during this session, although none that allowed us to pull the trigger in real time. We also further refined the rules for 'mechanical' entries, a tactic we've been using with increasing frequency over the last several months. See how easily it worked to set up trades in the E-Mini S&Ps, February Gold and AMZN. There are subtleties here that will be new to most webinar grads.

Is this exciting, or what? I've been drum-rolling a potentially very important low in VXX for months. Lo, the little weasel touched my 26.32 benchmark early in the session, allowing subscribers to buy high-leverage call options that had traded for as much as 7.18 in December for 90% off. A case of all good things coming to those who wait?  Not necessarily. This is a speculative bet at best -- one that goes against a downtrend that has been in motion for longer than most of us permabears would care to remind ourselves. We had a correspondingly important target to watch in the E-Mini S&Ps, and how very satisfying it might have been had the target precisely contained Wednesday's rally. Alas, it was not to be. The futures traded fully four points above it -- enough for bulls to demonstrate that they are not about to be, um, cowed. Both trading vehicles left Pivoteers on edge at the end of the day, finishing millimeters from their respective targets.  The VXX target is such a beauty that, from a technical standpoint, we'll have no alternatives to titillate ourselves with if it's obliterated over the next few days.

The downtrending pattern shown in the chart (click on inset) is such a beauty that I cannot imagine the U.S. Dollar Index not turning sharply higher from within a millimeter of its 91.57 target. It's anybody's guess how high the bounce will go, but it would need to surpass 94.64 to become technically significant.  However, it would take merely a print at 92.35 to turn the hourly chart bullish. Would that be the start of a major trend change for the beleaguered dollar? We may be about to find out, and soon. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 8:31 p.m.): I expected DXY to get closer to my 91.57 target than 0.18 points before turning higher, but we'll take what we can get.  The target will remain valid in theory unless 94.22 is exceeded to the upside, so keep it in mind if DXY relapses.

Stocks have entered the new year with their wonted ability to waft effortlessly higher on thermals of giddiness and so-so volume evidently still intact. In decades past there have been instances where the mere flipping of the calendar to January was enough to evince a sea change in Wall Street's mood. Not this year, apparently -- at least not so far. The headlines have been so felicitous lately -- even Trump has been getting good press -- that it's almost scary.  One could imagine that all that's needed to send stocks tumbling is for some high-profile economist to say -- and really mean it -- something to the effect that the stock market seems to have reached a permanently high plateau.

With this evening's robust extension of the rally begun from 1238.30 three weeks ago, buyers have finally made February Gold's chart look interesting -- encouraging, even. The move earlier in the day through the 1314.00 midpoint resistance, coupled with the so-far slight progress tonight above September's 1321.00 'external' peak, has put the 1389.60 target of the pattern in play. It would become a strong odds-on bet to be reached if the futures are able to close above the red line for two consecutive days or to trade above 1330.00 intraday. Regardless, any pullback in the days/weeks ahead should be viewed as corrective and therefore a buying opportunity. Stay close to the chat room, or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you want to stay apprised of any such opportunities in real time. _____ UPDATE (Jan 3, 8:55 p.m. EST): The usual scuzzballs sacked the futures just when the rally was starting to hum. But let's face it, gold has been on a tear and was overdue for a pullback. Despite the weakness that ended the day, the rally that preceded it accomplished what we wanted it to accomplish when it exceeded a key external peak at 1321.00.  This means that any further weakness in the days ahead should be viewed as corrective -- i.e., a buying opportunity. Bulls will need to push above p=1314.00 and stay aloft for at least a couple of days before I sound the all-clear for a likely run-up to 1389.60.