Rick Ackerman

First the good news:  December Gold looks like a great bet to reach the 1462.70 target shown -- a exhilarating, 10% move from these levels.  The not-so-good-news is that the futures could relapse $105 to the green line at 1220 without compromising the bullish look of the weekly chart.  That would be a terrific spot to place a 'mechanical' bid, assuming we still had the stomach to be in there buying with the futures plummeting. But in the meantime, we'll need to be on our guard as the correction from the recent high at 1362 gathers steam, as appears likely.  The 30-minute chart suggests the decline is bound for a minimum 1317.10 Sunday night. Any lower, however, would beget more downside to 1314.30, a Hidden Pivot whose decisive breach would be warning bulls to back away. Worst case for the next two weeks: 1295.30. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 11:14 p.m.):  December Gold has fallen to a level where it is starting to look enticing as a possible 'counterintuitive' buy.  I'd like to see the point 'C' low form in the range 1301.10-1303.50 before I give the go-ahead, but in any event the entry trigger will ultimately lie exactly 15 points above 'C'.  That implies $750 of theoretical entry risk per contract, but we may opt to use a 'camouflage' entry instead if the move from C to x takes more than a day. Stay tuned to the chat room if you want to stay closely apprised. ________ UPDATE Sep 19, 6:22 p.m.): Tuesday's dirge didn't inspire much confidence that buyers are about to take a leap. We'll give it another day, but a fall to at least 1295.30 is still looking likely. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 11:38 p.m.): Gold has gotten pounded recently, but the selloff has generated only a

We spent the entire week patiently waiting for DIA to hit 222.62 so that we could buy puts when it was close to an important rally target. Alas, although we got the trend right,  the little sumbitch topped in the final minutes of Friday's session at 222.57, a mere 0.05 points shy of our benchmark. I am canceling the trade because it is impossible for me to know in advance exactly how the stock will open on Monday. Buying puts with DIA very near 222.73, the actual Hidden Pivot target, could prove to be the ticket. But if the stock opens higher and cruises into the wild blue yonder, it will be difficult for me to adjust any put bid I've advised on-the-fly. I'll be in the chat room nonetheless, so be sure to drop in if you're interested in the trade and opportunity knocks.

With VXX continuing to shred its way to new record lows each day, we continue to hold four Sep 29 50 calls purchased Thursday for 0.65. The position was initiated when VXX fell to a clear Hidden Pivot support at 43.28 that we'd been monitoring for weeks.  The fact that it was smashed after VXX took a weak bounce from it is bearish, but we'll stick with the position for the time being anyway, since there is another Hidden Pivot target a 42.38 (see inset) that could deliver the reversal we're looking for. In general, we will continue to buy cheap calls, usually for 0.70 or less, whenever VXX falls to a promising target, but not at any other time. We've had two big winners and three small losers so far using this strategy, even as we've avoided getting trapped for any length of time in VXX's record-setting sinking spell. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 12:56 p.m. EDT): If the bounce doesn't come now, from 41.54 (D target, on the daily chart, of A=54.92 on 8/18), the next opportunity for a decent rally would come at 40.68, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of a much larger pattern (A=64.44 on 5/17). And if that hidden support doesn't hold, VXX should be presumed bound for 35.48, where I would expect this record-shattering bear market to make its ultimate low. The 35.48 target would be a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity as far as I'm concerned, since the crystal-clear pattern that produced it has been very precisely confirmed by price action at p=45.88. Click here for a chart that shows both patterns, big and small. _______ UPDATE (Sep 28, 10:46 p.m.): An opportunity to bottom-fish has ripened as VXX plays toe-sies with the 39.87 Hidden Pivot shown. Play this one however you like, since there is no

You've got to hand it to Fox News for daring to show us the lighter side of Kim Jong Un. The photo (click on inset to enlarge) is featured this evening at Fox online, and one can only surmise that the Korean dictator and his generals are having great fun, whatever it is they are doing. It's not difficult to imagine that they have just watched a firing squad turn some some hapless leaker of some trivial state secret -- the royal family's recipe for Limoncello, say  -- into suet.  The news story accompanying the picture concerns the latest missile lobbed by North Korea at Japan.  This was not having much effect on Wall Street or index futures Thursday night, traders evidently having conspired not to panic unless a mushroom cloud is seen billowing over Los Angeles. At press time there was no word on any response on Twitter from President Trump, but you can bet he's not going to take this latest affront to time-honored protocols of statesmanship lying down.

AMZN was up and AAPL was down, but these two key bull-market bellwethers should be back in bullish gear soon, presumably after the shakedown in AAPL has run its course.  My target for the stock is 168.33, almost $9 above the current price. Challenging as that may seem, the stock is capable of covering the distance in a week's time.

Bitcoin has fallen more than $1000 since triggering 'Matt's Curse' a week ago. This is a technical event marked by a rally that stalls precisely at the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot -- in this case 4780.  At the time, I predicted bitcoin would fall to at least 3879, but it has somewhat exceeded this benchmark, plummeting this morning to 3769.  If that is the way "money" is supposed to act, then perhaps we should all be grateful for the opportunity to become speculators with every purchase or sale we make.  There's no way the lunatics who drive this monster are finished, but we'll need to see where it bottoms before we can project a precise target in the $6000s for the next big move.

With VXX falling toward a target that’s been in play for months, we formulated a call-buying strategy to leverage the anticipated bounce. You’ll be surprised at how unscientific the strategy is, but there are times when a lack of sophistication is the best way to get the job done. We also looked at the E-Mini S&Ps as they stole up on a 2496.75 target that has been ten weeks in coming, and considered some ‘camouflage’ entry strategies in several vehicles.

I've returned my focus once again to AAPL as a key market bellwether, even though the stock spent Tuesday in violent conniptions.  Our other telltale is the U.S. dollar, which has rallied moderately this week, although not yet enough for us to infer with confidence that the nasty correction since January is over.  One thing's for sure:  When the greenback finally turns higher with a vengeance, all the nutty assumptions that have buttressed the global financial system's house of cards will collapse overnight.

We've tried twice to catch a top recently, so I fully understand if you've tired of the game. The target shown, at 2496.75, looks like the one we should have been using all along, although I would not want to risk jinxing its power by trying a third time.  However, I would not discourage subscribers from attempting to get short "unofficially," meaning in a way that would not compromise the usefulness of the target by drum-rolling it.  This goes doubly for night owls who may have been waiting for this tout to be published. Anyway, if 2496.75 is exceeded, I will have to come up with a new target -- presumably one from an ABC pattern bigger than the one shown. Trouble is, this pattern is big enough to satisfy all of our immediate needs. Let's see what happens before we try to formulate Plan B. ________ UPDATE (Sep 13, 4:36 p.m.): The futures have spent two days head-butting the 2496.75 resistance, and the suspense could put a trader to sleep. Will it, or won't it get through? I'm not going to pretend we should care, but if you are short just for the hell of it keep your stop-loss tight. If the stop is hit look for a stall, possibly a tradeable one, at 2502.25.  Here's the chart.