Rick Ackerman

The chart shown (click on inset) has been my reality check for more than a year, since it makes a strong technical case that the Dow Industrials will get to at least 23317 no matter what I think.  The good news is that a move to that number would amount to a rally of just 5.7% -- a run-up that could easily be achieved in time for an October crash, a prospect that never fails to stimulate and delight the permabear's imagination at this time of year.  The most bullish thing about the chart is the way the herd trampled the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 19343, the first time they encountered it. This implied they meant business, and nothing that has happened since would suggest otherwise.

Gold and T-Bonds are rising while stocks have churned or fallen. All that remains to confirm that the REALLY big picture has changed for investments and the U.S. economy is for the dollar to get in bullish gear. That would be the Fat Lady's final aria, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm looking for it to start happening any day.

I've mentioned elsewhere on the home page today that if and when the dollar finally turns bullish, the bull market for stocks begun in 2009 will be over.  Bonds and bullion will be the place to be -- but so will the dollar itself. Let's speculate on this with a 90.92 bid for 400 shares, day order, no stop.  The bid lies four cents above the clear Hidden Pivot target at 90.88 shown in the chart. If the order goes in the black, plan on exiting half the position at 92.05. _______ UPDATE (Sep 11, 5:53 p.m. EDT): Since this vehicle doesn't trade, we'll look the next time to do our bottom-fishing in the futures contract (DXZ17 is currently  the active month).  For now do nothing further, since the dollar has rallied sharply from just above our Hidden Pivot target.

DIA would make a tempting short if it rallies Thursday to the green line (see inset). That would trip a 'mechanical' sell signal at 219.07, and in this instance I'd prefer to do it that way rather than converting the signal to 'camouflage'. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four Sep 29 217 puts with DIA trading 219.03 or higher.  A price in the range 1.10-1.15 seems reasonable at the moment, but that is a very rough estimate, and you can probably improve on it by monitor the bid/ask spread for the puts once DIA gets within 0.10 points of 219.07. _______ UPDATE (Aug 7, 5:15 p.m.): A head-fake on the opening bar crested at 218.72, somewhat shy of the target. For Friday, use the strategy that's detailed above, but expect to pay 0.05-0.15 less for the puts. _______ UPDATE (Sep 10): Let's give it one more try, shorting this hoax if it gets close to the 218.59 secondary pivot shown in the chart. A price of between 0.85 and 1.00 for the Sep 29 217 puts would be doing well, but I'll suggest using a (very) lowball bid of 0.90 at the opening bell, then adjusting as the day goes on by diligently monitoring the bid/asked spread for the puts. ________ UPDATE (10:22 p.m.): Index futures are up the equivalent of 115 Dow points at the moment, so let's use the original instruction: buy Sep 29 217 puts with DIA trading 219.03 or higher. _______ UPDATE (Sep 11, 8:48 a.m,): Cancel the order to buy puts, since DIA is in lunatic mode and will open well above the target. ________ UPDATE (Sep 11, 5:59 p.m.): The rally pattern shown could stall out at p2=220.98, but let's plan on buying puts if it reaches the 222.73 target shown.  Bid for four Sep

GDXJ has been on a long-term buy signal since early January, but the appeal of this was limited by the ETF's lackluster price action since then. Last week, however, buyers re-affirmed the signal by pushing GDXJ through the green line. Let's try to stake out a small position, initially with a 35.28 bid for 200 shares.  We can work this order and perhaps augment it over the next week or so, but I have no appetite for paying up because the stock has run up so steeply since mid-August.  We will also look to buy call options, but only when GDXJ has fallen to a clear Hidden Pivot target. _______ UPDATE (Sep 11, 9:43 p.m.): For Tuesday only, raise the bid to 35.35, no stop. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 9:05 p.m): Cancel the bid for now, since GDXJ has rallied moderately out of range.

Today's rally was the most important in gold since it entered a bull market in December 2015. Actually, from a technical standpoint the rally has significantly raised the odds that gold's balky ascent since then has in fact been a bull market rather than a mere correction in a bear market begun from 2011's record peak at $1911. It also put in play the 1474.4 target shown.  The rally achieved two additional feats, one of them crucial to the intermediate-to-long-term picture when it: 1) exceeded a 1352.90 Hidden Pivot target of middling importance; and, 2) pushed above the extremely important peak at 1353.00 recorded on the night Trump was elected.  All of this adds up to a greatly improved technical picture for gold -- one that we will be watching closely to get the most possible leverage from bull trades in the weeks and months ahead. _______ UPDATE (Sep 10):  Use the secondary pivot at 1391.30 (see inset) as a minimum upside target for now. If buyers are intent on pushing the futures to at least 1474.40, they should make short work of the 1391.30 resistance. ________ UPDATE (Sep 11, 9:49 p.m.): This correction targets 1320.30 most immediately (60-min, a=1360.30 on 9/8), and there should be a tradeable bounce from that Hidden Pivot if bulls are about to get their mojo back. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 9:12 p.m.): The futures have rallied off the secondary pivot (1326.10) without having gotten near the 1320.30 downside target with which it is associated.  This is moderately bullish but would become still moreso if and when the move starts to exceed some prior peaks on the hourly chart. The first of significance lies at 1343.30, about $9 above current levels. ________ UPDATE (Sep 13, 10:37 p.m.): The futures relapsed down to 1322.20, settling just

T-Bond futures have had quite a run-up since early July, but they may need to rest for a week or two before embarking on another significant bull leg.  In any event, we should remain open to the possibility that the recent high at 157^12 will mark a top of at least short-term importance. The initial upward penetration in August of the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 154^02, was not sufficiently dramatic to make a finishing stroke to 157^25 a foregone conclusion. That said, the rally since then has had a steep enough pitch to make such a leap no worse than an even-odds bet.  The actual bet I will suggest, however, is a 'mechanical' bid for a single contract at 156^03, stop 154^29.  It is based on the very appealing ABC rally pattern shown. This is far more than we typically risk on a trade -- about $1200 initially -- but in this case the pattern looks too promising to pass up or to complicate with a 'camouflage' entry strategy.  Even so, I will try to provide this via an intraday alert if the opportunity should arise.  Under the best of circumstances, I would expect the 'mechanical' trade to take at least a week to get airborne, assuming it does. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 12:31 p.m. EDT): The futures spiked to a so-far high at 157^30 that slightly exceeded the target provided above, although not by enough for us to infer that more upside over the near term is certain. In the meantime, our bottom-fishing trade failed to trigger because the thrust came off a 156^07 low that lay four ticks above our bid. I expect the futures to pull back now, possibly significantly, but we should remain open to the possibility the rally will continue.________ UPDATE

AAPL's price action on Friday was very bearish, since it breached a clear Hidden Pivot support at 159.71 while also exceeding by two cents August 24's key low at 158.55. Ostensibly, this was due to some downbeat reports on iPhone sales that sounded more like the usual spun hogwash intended to shake shares loose from weak hands. Whatever the case, AAPL shows no enthusiasm for moving toward the 168.33 rally target that I said here earlier could mark the end of the bull market. Last week's selloff doesn't justify giving up on the target, but it should at least open our minds to the possibility that the stock has seen its bull-market highs. A further fall exceeding the 154.63 low shown in the chart would provide fresh evidence of this.

The chart shown was selected for its menacing look.  Because my gut feeling is that the bull market is ending, or perhaps already has ended, it behooves me to produce a chart that makes the point technically. This one does, very persuasively, with a stall almost precisely a p that would be entirely logical for a bull trend in its death rattle. Keep in mind that, using the September contract, we nailed the August 8 all-time high within a point to begin with. This chart simply updates the target, but with more evidence that p has in fact proven to be crucial resistance. It's a big stretch to imagine that the chart will be resolved in bulls' favor, since that would require a massive thrust toward 2648.00. It's far easier for me to believe that the bull market begun in March 2009 is dying here, at these levels.  Accordingly, I'll recommend shorting two contracts at 2473.00, stop 2474.25, day order. That's the midpoint pivot of a pattern on the daily chart starting with A=2419.25 on 8/29. ________ UPDATE (Sep 9, 10:01 p.m. EDT): The trade got stopped out for a $125 loss. Let's try again, this time with an offer to short a single contract at 2491.75, stop 2492.75.  This one's just for fun, since I can't resist the look of the 2491.75 target. Click here to see it in its full glory.