Rick Ackerman

The broad averages were stagnant during our hour together, the Dow up around 70 points from the opening but unwilling to push above the morning’s modest peaks. Even so, we managed to find some promising plays in such popular vehicles as the E-Mini S&Ps, AAPL and NFLX. The last stock in particular was attractive because at around $178 per share, it’s possible to trade four round lots with an account size of $20,000. Check out the segment concerning bitcoin, which can be traded via an over-the=counter vehicle with the symbol GBTC.

The broad averages were adrift Wednesday, edging timidly higher on vaporous volume. What few buyers showed up intraday had vanished by the closing bell, leaving index futures to fend for themselves in so-far-turgid night-session trading. I suggested a bottom-fishing foray in the tout that went out this evening for the E-Min S&Ps (see below), but this was for night owls only, and nimble ones at that. They should be prepared to see the futures fall to 2443.50 if the trade is stopped out, but everyone should brace for potentially much worse if the support gets pulped.

A bottom-fishing trade that we looked at during this morning's weekly tutorial session failed to ripen, but the futures went on to replicate the opportunity in a somewhat different form. Specifically, and for night owls in particular, I'll recommend placing a bid for two contracts at 2456.25, stop 2455.50. You'll be on your own if the order fills. You could also try a 'counterintuitive' entry, provided the futures make a 'C' low in the range  2456.00-2456.75.  Please note, however, that a moderate appealing 'CI' trade has already tripped at 2460.75. If it were to reach p= 2463.75, that would negate the trades suggested above. ________ UPDATE (Sep 7, 12:26 p.m.): Close but no cigar.  The futures bottomed overnight at 2457.50, stranding our 2456.25 bid before embarking on an 11-point rally. Do nothing further for now.

Two bubble vehicles, among others, got sacked on Tuesday: AAPL shares and the Bitcoin Index. Although odds favor their recouping the losses in the days ahead, that is no reason for bulls not to worry. For in fact, both peaked almost precisely at the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot, 25% shy of their respective rally targets. A stall at or very near this pivot is known to Rick's Picks subscribers as 'Matt's Curse'. Although Matt, an avid silver trader, has not made a scientific study of the curse that came to be named after him, he has accumulated sufficient evidence to suggest that a stall at or very near the secondary pivot, which lies midway between a pattern's midpoint pivot and its 'D' target (see inset), tends to prove fatal more often than would occur randomly.  Which is to suggest that it is the most dangerous place for an ABCD-type rally to fail. Moreover, when this occurs, the stock stands a good chance of retreating all the way to the pattern's point 'C' low. If this were to occur in the Bitcoin Index, which is currently trading for around 4413, it would imply more downside to 3879. And if AAPL, currently at 162.03, were to do the same, it would fall to 154.63. Under the circumstances, and given the severity of this scenario, the prospect of 'Matt's Curse'  panning out deserves our most utmost attention in the days ahead.

I've been rhythming a few key stocks, looking for them to hit rally targets simultaneously to signal a possible end to the bull market begun eight-and-a-half years ago. AAPL has been number one on my watchlist ever since our erstwhile bellwether, AMZN, dropped out of the race with a plunge from a targeted high at 1083.31 that seems unlikely to be recouped any time soon. Every reputable guru in the business seems to be sniffing a top here, but don't expect Mr Market to make us all look like geniuses. Whatever he's got in mind, it is bound to surprise everyone -- even those who will turn out to have been more or less right about the Mother of All Tops.

I've given AAPL a spotlight and a drum roll for the last couple of weeks as it has inched its way toward the 168.33 target shown. There's another even more important target at 168.46 that is derived from a bull-market pattern going back to 2013.  Between them, we should expect these two Hidden Pivots to show stopping power that is both precise and decisive. A major top is what I am predicting, and we will get short there when the opportunity arrives. More immediately, bulls were stymied last week by the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot at 164.91, but I don't expect it to give them much trouble this week. Traders can use a pullback to the red line 161.48 to generate a mechanical 'buy' signal; however, to pare the $348 entry risk down to a theoretical very small fraction of that, I'd suggest using the mechanical signal to craft a 'camouflage' set-up on the three-minute chart or less. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 9:45 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since AAPL's plunge today followed a stall almost precisely at the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. That would be an unsurprising spot for a bull market to end, although there is not yet any evidence in the daily chart to suggest the 168.33 target that I've been drum-rolling for weeks will not be reached. In any case, it is a time for extreme caution and close observation of the intraday charts. If the stock's fall were to exceed the 160.00 low that I've labeled (click here) by Thursday's close, that would be reason for bulls to ratchet up their worries.________ UPDATE (Sep 6, 6:10 p.m.): DaBoyz sandbagged buyers with a deceptively upbeat opening bar, setting the stage for the moderate selloff that followed.  The stock spent the middle of the day recouping much

In bull markets, stocks typically recoup steep declines with equally steep rallies. It is therefore troubling that AMZN has yet to recover after plummeting 147 points, or about 13.5%, following its record-high print at 1083.31 on July 27.  The stock is a crucial bellwether for the bull market, and if it has topped for the long-term cycle begun in March 2009, then so have the broad averages. In the chart shown, AMZN has traced out what looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern. In fact, this one doesn't conform closely enough to the classic textbook pattern described by Edwards & Magee to be worthy of our attention.  Still, regardless of what you call it, there is nothing bullish about the pattern.  Looking at it from a Hidden Pivot perspective, a bullish interpretation requires one to believe the stock is on its way to at least 1186.  Maybe, but I doubt it. Rather than worry about it, let us stipulate that AMZN exceed the 996.28 'external' peak that I've labeled before we infer that bulls are once again in command.

AMZN got off to a good start, but when the rally failed to make headway above a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 952.63, it telegraphed the weakness that followed.  For now, I’d suggest using the bearish pattern shown to get a tradeable handle on the stock. It may have to be dragged kicking and screaming down to the 926.86 target, but that’s where it looks like it’s going. I have already broached a still-lower target at 910.27, but we’ll take ’em one at a time for now.________ UPDATE (Aug 29, 5:15 p.m.): DaBoyz trapped bears on the opening, pulling their bids in order to take the stock $10 lower to dry up sellers. However, the subsequent, engineered short squeeze failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart; that would take a print exceeding 958.86. Until such time as that occurs, the staying power of this rally will be suspect. The 910.27 downside target will remain viable as long as the stock trades no higher than 967.86._______ UPDATE (Aug 30, 9:29 p.m.): Bulls regained control with today’s nasty short-squeeze to 969.41.  Bears were caught in the ringer at the close and will be fighting for their lives when stocks open Thursday morning. Anything above 969.65 will be telegraphing more upside over the near term to at least 974.54._______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 11:29 p.m.): Buyers blew past 974.54; now let's see whether they can push this gas-bag above the 996.28 peak recorded August 8 on the way down. That would be where the rally starts to look interesting.  There's a beautiful looking head-and-shoulders pattern developing on the 240-minute chart, but I've dissed such patterns so many times that I won't say much about it now.

Thursday's rally leveraged the short squeeze begun a day earlier, pushing above a key 'external' peak at 2474.00 and re-energizing the hourly chart.  It now seems likely that the futures will exceed the old all-time high at 2487.50. Everyone is a bull at this point, especially shorts caught in the ringer, and the futures may therefore turn too diabolical to trade via any night-in-advance set-ups I could offer you.  Nonetheless, I am engaged by the prospect that the rally, once it reaches uncharted water, will culminate in an epic bull trap.  I will be watching closely for signs of this on the very lesser charts, so stay tuned. The first place we might look for the trend to fail is at the 2494.00 Hidden Pivot target shown (see inset). ________ UPDATE (Sep 5, 9:51 p.m. EDT):  Short-covering bears recouped about half of yesterday's losses during the second half of the session, but I'm as curious as you are about whether the effort may have exhausted them.  Any attempt on Wednesday to rally this vehicle will need to exceed Tuesday's 2471.25 peak by mid-session or it's liable to turn mighty heavy.