Rick Ackerman

August Gold ended the week with two consecutive days of banging on the 1253.20 Hidden Pivot support shown. There was scarcely a bounce during the process, and so, barring any world-shaking news Sunday night, we should expect the futures to continue  down to at least 1247.80 over the near term, or to 1245.90 if any lower. The mere existence of alternative targets is telling us that any bottom-fishing opportunities just beneath these levels will not be of the highest quality. However, if you don't mind doing a little work, you may be able to get aboard using 'camouflage' for as little as 3-4 ticks of theoretical entry risk. Please note that the big picture remains bullish, with a 1464.80 target.

A potentially major resistance looms at 1083, but we'll use a lesser, more conservative target at 1024 (see inset) for now to avoid being caught unprepared if AMZN should turn south with unexpected vengeance. The stock ended last week an inch from tripping a 'mechanical' buy signal via a pullback to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 981.73. Your bid there should be tied to a stop-loss at 967.36. If you want to cut the entry risk by as much as 90%, convert the 'mechanical' buy signal to a camouflage set-up, using the one-minute chart or less to get aboard an uptrending ABC pattern of lesser degree. This trade will likely be for Sunday night-owls, assuming it continues to evolve in the way we require._______ UPDATE (Jun 19, 8:30 p.m. EDT): DaBoyz sprang a bull trap on the opening bar, giving thousands of buyers something to regret just moments later. However, because the fleeting high slightly exceeded the peak from which last week's tech mini-crash began, the pullback can be bought for a shot at 1024 or even 1083. The stock was setting up a possible counterintuitive entry on the hourly chart at the close, where A=985.00 on 6/16._______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 1155 p.m.): AMZN looks like it's fixing to pull back beneath prospective A=985.00, so I'll suggest moving to the sidelines for the moment.

This session is a must-view for Pivoteers who want to be on the cutting edge of ‘mechanical’ trading. We stalked Amazon, a stock that demands mechanical entries because it is too squirrelly for buy- or sell-stop orders. Our goal was to zoom down to a time frame that would allow a mechanical set-up. Follow the process step-by-step in this recording and you’ll have a technique that will work for you whenever you are trading.

AMZN, our number one bellwether for the U.S. stock market, has bounced an ostentatious 38 points from Friday's bombed-out lows, but we shouldn't be too impressed. For sure, the dirtballs who manipulate the stock for a living can't wait to run it up to new record highs -- to the 1083 Hidden Pivot target noted here earlier, unless I miss my guess. But it will take a little more time, perhaps 3-4 days, before those who got savaged by Friday's carnage forget about it and turn rabid-buyer. Between now and then, use the pattern shown, with a 909.64 worst-case correction target, to understand AMZN's behavior. The stock looks too scary to short at the moment, I agree. But for the record, it tripped a mechanical signal to do so at the green line, stop 984.10. We'll pass up the trade and simply watch to see whether it does what it's supposed to, more or less oblivious to the designs of those who deign to believe they control it._______ UPDATE (Jun 15, 1:27 p.m.): On the hourly chart, sellers have slightly penetrated a midpoint HP support at 953.16 that is associated with a 915.98 target. It'll be well in play if the stock closes for two consecutive days below the pivot. Coordinates: a=1012.99 on 6/9; b= 938.63 on 6/9._______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 10:05 a.m.): DaBoyz have short-squeezed AMZN $34 on the opening bar, trashing the bearish pattern noted above and putting the stock back on track for a potentially climatic surge to 1083. This is a very major Hidden Pivot resistance with the potential to put a top on the bull market begun in 2009.

TLT took a bold leap on Friday, exceeding our rally target by a dime and allowing us to turn an already profitable 200-share position into a covered write. Subscribers acting on explicit guidance provided here last Wednesday reported shorting two June 30 127 calls for 0.90 against stock. The position is currently showing a paper profit of about $1200, but it could tack on additional gains of up to $458 if the ETF eventually rises to the 128.40 target shown (see inset). In any event, the premium we received for the calls will provide up to $90 of cushion if the uptrend should turn balky. This was intended as a long-term play when we initiated the trade back in April. Looking ahead, if the calls we shorted expire in-the-money, we'll roll them to a more distant expiration and keep the stock, since I expect this vehicle, which tracks Treasury bonds, eventually to move significantly above the 128.40 target. We can repeat this tactic, month by month, to fatten our total gains if TLT continues higher as I expect. The potential kicker for us is that investors who have been on the wrong side of the trade since T-Bonds reversed in March will have to unwind their positions, possibly squeezing prices into a bullish parabola. The Fed sucked investors into believing that a supposedly strengthening economy would lead to inflation, but this narrative is starting to look more and more idiotic, as is the Fed's bluff about tightening a few more times, now that the housing and auto sectors have started to roll over. Bottom line: Recession is coming and the Fed will not be able to tighten, making our T-Bond bet look better than ever. _______ UPDATE (June 5, 3:52 p.m.): Our short sale of June 30 127 calls to

Gold's ups and downs have grown increasingly tiresome, largely because the rallies are so disappointing and the setbacks so punitive. But look at the bright side: If bullion can hold its own at a time when institutional investors continue to shun it, just think how well it's going to perform when the portfolio managers finally get their heads out of their butts. Meanwhile, take a look at the chart (inset) in order to put the piddling decline of the last two weeks in proper perspective. It began from exactly where it should have -- i.e., a major midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance -- and the weakness since has not retraced even half of the run-up from the May 9 low. The visual picture suggests a boring but essential consolidation within a much larger, bullish pattern. The futures would become a 'mechanical' buy for the third time since March if they were to fall to the green line, but if you did so on the initial signal, you have nothing to worry about. Your stop-loss is at 1133,20, and your price objective is 1464.80.

We've been bottom-fishing promising bear-market targets with good success and currently hold four June 16 13.50 calls purchased for 0.45. We'll continue to extend this play by acquiring calls when the underlying falls to the nearest major Hidden Pivot support. Presently that implies the 11.26 target shown. Yes, we could always nibble on some calls at 12.47, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot, adding to our position even if VXX doesn't achieve 11.26. But I'm going to recommend bottom-fishing at the lower number only in order to boost our odds of winning if the order fills. It could take a few days for this trade to materialize, but if and when VXX gets within 0.06 points of 11.26, buy eight June 30 12.0 calls at-the-market. The order should be marked good through Friday._______ UPDATE (Jun 15, 4:34 p.m. EDT): We'll stick to our game plan, buying calls on this death trap only if it falls to the 11.26 target. However, let's move out to the July 7 expiration, same strike price: 12.0.  If VXX gets within 0.06 points of 11.26, buy eight July 7 12.0 calls at-the-market. Since the June 16 calls we already hold expire on Friday, be prepared to exit them at will if VXX pops. [It didn't.] _______UPDATE (Jun 19, 9:54 p.m.): The intraday low was 12.50, but unless you know how to 'camo' your way aboard, I'll suggest waiting for the 'easy', one-size-fits-all play at 11.26. Our risk, as far as I'm concerned, is that VXX will turn from here, exactly, or from a low just above 11.26.

Wednesday's nasty chop did nothing to alter my confidence that the futures will reach the 2454.75 target shown, presumably by week's end. That implies they remain a 'mechanical' buy at 2423.00, stop 2412.50, but you can convert the signal to 'camouflage' on a lesser chart to reduce the entry risk by as much as 90%. Ordinarily I would suggest shorting at the target only to those who have caught a profitable ride to it. In this case, however, 2454.75 looks so likely to generate precise stopping power that you can do the trade, opening a new position, with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks -- i.e., at 2455.50. _______ UPDATE (Jun 15, 4:17 p.m. EDT): Despite Thursday's gratuitous swoon, traders who followed my advice would have ended the day with a position showing a profit of about $400 per contract.  The intraday low was 2416.25, so the stop I'd suggested at 2412.50 never triggered. Although there were reports in the chat room from two subscribers who got long, because neither evidently did so according to my instructions, I have not established a tracking position. Nevertheless, the target at 2454.75 remains valid as an upside price objective for any positions still held.

The broad averages swooned sharply on Thursday, and although they had recouped most of their losses by day's end, the bounce looked pretty well spent by the end of the day. AMZN, the only bellwether we should care about, looked even less impressive, finishing the session with a $12 loss that left it poised for another leg down on Friday. If so, the Dow and the S&Ps will come down with it, since they lack the energy to fake indifference. Things could get nasty, since, if AMZN fulfills the 915.98 downside target I've projected for it over the near term, that would amount to a fall of about 5% from current levels._______ UPDATE (Jun 16m 10:45 a.m. EDT): AMZN has reamed bears a new orifice this morning, with bullish implications for stocks in the U.S. and around the world. See the update to my AMZN tout, below, for details.