Rick Ackerman

I've called up a long-term chart for this interest-rate ETF today to show how yields on the 30-year T-Bond could fall to as low as 0.62% over the next several years. They've oscillated around 2.74% -- the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot -- for nearly five years, but the thing to notice is that they breached that support twice decisively in the process. This is usually a sign that the trend will continue to the 'D' target with which the midpoint pivot is associated -- in this case 6.24, or 0.624%. My hunch is that at some point the downtrend in yields will turn precipitous when all the bozos who have bought into the Fed's economic recovery/inflation hoax have to unwind their huge mistake.  The move could steepen initially when it becomes apparent that the Fed will have to ease when the housing and auto sector downturns currently in progress turn ugly and threaten to send the U.S. economy into deep recession later this year.

I've used a conservative pattern to project downside to as low as 140.83 in the days ahead. A rally exceeding 147.50 would negate the target, but if the bounce off Wednesday's lows only gets to the green line (145.83), that would trip a 'mechanical' short stop 147.51.  I'm not enthused enough about the trade to recommend it, however, since the intraday low barely cracked the green line, and because the initial risk would be $168 per round lot. Ordinarily, we look to keep entry risk down to a tenth of that.________ UPDATE(Jun 19, 10:09 p.m. EDT): AAPL remains indecisive, but the benchmarks given above still obtain._______UPDATE (Jun 21, 5:25 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

We began the day with what looked like a high-odds correction target at 1259.10. Instead, the futures turned sharply from 1260.50, a bullish event that became even moreso when the Auggies began pushing past some 'external' peaks on the intraday charts.  By the end of the session, they had generated a bullish impulse leg with the potential to produce a follow-through to as high as around 1275.  Much as I like the pattern, I don't quite trust it because the intraday high was below Monday's twin peaks. Under the circumstances, the only strategy for getting long that I can recommend would be via a 'counterintuitive' trigger like the one sketched. _______ UPDATE (Jun 15, 12:55 a.m. EDT):  We'll back away until the nut-jobs responsible for Wednesday's flaky price action have moved on to another game.

The FAANG/lunatic stocks have recouped about 40% of last Friday's mini-crash with two consecutive days of short-squeeze buying. The gains have been relatively modest so far, but this is because bears don't yet perceive the rally as threatening. That's exactly the sort of thinking that can cause a weak short-squeeze to gain momentum and turn powerful after a few days. In this case, however, there is probably too much distance between current levels and the recent, record highs to get bears to stampede as early as this week. Accordingly, I expect the high-flyers to roll over, but not in a way that will let shorts get comfortable growing their position size. The foregoing aside, if QQQ can close for two consecutive days above the 141.14 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart, all bearish bets will be off.

The pattern shown, with a 2456.75 rally target, looks logical and compelling in a gnarly kind of way. I have enough confidence in the target to suggest shorting there with a stop-loss as tight as 2457.50 (!), but you'll probably feel more relaxed if you've been long for at least a piece of the implied ride higher. I don't trust the red line as a place to park a mechanical bid, but if the futures should get a little wild in the early going and fall to the green line (2425.25) in the first hour of the session, you can get long there 'mechanically' with at 2414.50 stop-loss. Don't place this bet if the futures have traded below 2425.25 prior to the opening bell.

Use the pattern shown to do some tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 143.95 target. Based on price action late in Friday's session, that's a logical minimum downside objective for the near term. If AAPL surprises by turning higher as early as Monday, the rally would need to surpass the 'external' peak that I've labeled at 156.06 to get the stock's bullish juices flowing again. However, merely closing above 152.21 would imply that buyers are well capable of this. We should turn cautious again at 158.40, however, since that is the 'D; target associated with the 152.21 midpoint pivot noted above._______ UPDATE (Jun 13, 12:08 a.m. EDT): The stock overshot the 143.95 downside target by 1.44 -- reason enough to be skeptical of the bounce from Friday's lows.  In any case, it'll need to surpass 149.18 before we're obliged to take it seriously. _______ UPDATE (Jun 13, 6:05 p.m.):  Use the pattern shown to get long via a mechanical bid at 146.02, stop 145.14. You'll be shooting for 148.64, but save a round lot for a swing at the fences, since, if the stock exceeds the 149.18 'external' peak from Friday, the rally could get legs.

I'm not convinced AMZN is ready for a run to new highs, although if Tuesday's rally is just a fake-out, it's a pretty convincing one. The intraday high slightly exceeded the 'external' peak at 984.00 made last Friday on the way down, generated a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts. It is tradeable via a 'conventional' entry signal like the one I've sketched hypothetically. This is technically a 'camouflage' trigger, but because the stock is trading for close to $1000 a share, even using our best risk-cutting tool at our disposal, the initial exposure would be about $260 per round lot.  My suggestion is to initiate the trade only if the point 'C' low comes down into 'counterintuitive' territory -- i.e., within the range 974.38 - 974.50. Be sure to take a partial profit if the AMZN goes on to hit the midpoint pivot of the pattern.________ UPDATE (June 15, 1:18 a.m. EDT): I had the wrong point 'A'. Slide it one low to the left, and the buy signal tripped at 972.27 around 2:30 p.m.  We're too far behind the move to catch up, but you should check it out anyway to see how I missed the obvious.

Some of the lunatic/FAANG stocks have bounced sharply off Friday's lows, but I doubt they are quite ready for a sustained push to new-record highs. For your guidance this week, I've provided a chart alongside my AMZN tout to help you judge whether buyers are serious at the moment or simply trying to goad bears into yet one more short-covering binge. If the 'don't pass' bettors can hang tough on Tuesday, they could have bulls on the run for the remainder of the week.

AMZN came close to tripping a signal to get short Friday when it fell toward the green line (see inset) toward the end of the session. However, I'd suggest passing up the trade and bottom-fishing at p=953.14 ( see inset) instead. You could use a stop-loss as tight as 952.91. If the trade gets stopped, you can try again at 946.88, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support that can be found by sliding 'A' up to 1012.99. If the stock can close above that number as soon as Monday, that would be extremely bullish, yielding a projection of 1024.83 over the next 4-6 days. I'd turn cautious at that level, however, because the pivot looks capable of generating an important top. _______ UPDATE (Jun 12, 9:55 a.m.): The lower Hidden Pivot at 946.88 gave way to a fleeting bounce, but the stock has since relapsed and could sink to p2=928.04 now, or even d=909.45.