Rick Ackerman

August Gold has pinged the 1299.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot twice (see inset) , implying that the pattern shown can be used confidently for purposes of targeting and trading this vehicle. I have no crystal ball, and there can be no guarantees that the futures will get past the pivot. But if and when they do, the 1464.80 'D' target will be in play. Moreover, it would become no worse than an even-odds bet to be reached if the first thrust to exceed it does so decisively, especially by closing above it.  Alternatively, a competing but lesser downtrending abc pattern must be respected. It implies that the Auggies could fall to 1194.40 over the next 3-4 weeks in search of a foothold. A decisive breach of that 'hidden' support would open a path to as low as 1088.40 by mid-to-late July. ________ UPDATE (Jun 13, 9:01 a.m.):  More immediately, August Gold looks like it will fall to exactly 1259.10 before it can turn around. On the 15-minute chart, you can locate the target using these coordinates: A=1277.20 on 6/9 at 8:45 a.m.; B=1265.60 on 6/12 at 9:15 a.m. Notice the precise bounce from p yesterday, and how it set up a 'mechanical' short from x=1267.80.

The hallmark of a bull market in its final throes is hellish swoons-out-of-nowhere that are quickly recouped. Let's see if DaBoyz play it by the book this time. They pulled the rug out from under the FAGMA stocks on Friday -- Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon -- sending them down between 2.2% and 4% in a matter of hours. Remarkably, the broad averages still managed to close at record highs, a brazen display that hints at the way the divergence will be resolved. Even so, our most important stock market bellwether, AMZN, may struggle for perhaps 2-3 days before bears let their guard down again so that stocks can be short-squeezed to new record highs for the umpteenth time. I still have a $1083 target outstanding for the stock, which topped last week almost exactly at a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance I'd noted at 1018 before rolling over. Friday's weakness was easy to foresee; indeed, the last two headlines here atop The Morning Line were High Flyers Show Fatigue and The Yellow Flag Is Out. If AMZN turns around and makes a new record high as soon as Tuesday, a day earlier than 'scheduled,' bears had better scramble for cover, since the stock will be on its way to 1083, presumably dragging the entire stock market higher in its prop wash. All of this doesn't negate the fact that AMZN's most recent top occurred in a dangerous place -- i.e., at the 'secondary Hidden Pivot' of a fairly important ABC pattern. According to the informal chat-room rule of 'Matt's Curse,' this could prove fatal for the stock, telegraphing a drop to below the 884.49 point 'C' of the bullish pattern shown (see inset). We'll let AMZN tell us what's on its fevered mind, so stay close to the chat

I sounded a cautionary note here the other day because the E-Mini S&Ps had topped precisely at a Hidden Pivot target that had been a long time in coming. Even so, the Nasdaq's intraday charts suggest the FAANG/lunatic stocks that have driven the index higher have been consolidating for yet another push to new record highs. I'd be surprised if the tension between the Nasdaq and the S&Ps were to be resolved on a Friday, since the day has been the deadest dead spot in a long stretch of dead weeks for several months. It is of course an axiom that if too many others feel this way -- i.e., are expecting yet another soporific ending to a week -- then we should indeed brace for the unsurprising surprise.

Gold got sacked in the early going Thursday by the usual mysterious, evil forces, dropping $10 in mere minutes on the reported sale of 15,000 contracts. By day's end, however, the Auggies had recouped enough ground to put a promising, bullish pattern in play (see inset). It has the potential to reach 1308.50 next week -- and the sooner the better. More immediately, the push past the green line warrants a bullish trading bias, predicated on a minimum upside target of 1291.00 -- the midpoint Hidden Pivot. An easy move through it would shorten the odds of a continuation to 1308.50 by generating a strong impulse leg on the intraday charts. ______ UPDATE (June 9, 8:45 a.m. EDT): How neglectful of me not to give an alternative, bearish scenario! Here it is -- mostly played out at this point: The August futures look bound for 1266.60, off (on the 30-minute chart), a=1291.50 at 2:00 a.m.; b=1273.50. The stall at the moment is at p2=1271.10, and yes, it would be a promising sign if the Auggies reverse from here and climb above 1282.50. But don't bet on it.

Although many charts look quite bullish, including the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq index, the June E-Mini S&Ps have yet to push past a 2439.00 rally target that had been four months in coming. (Click on the chart in the E-Mini tout below to see this). They could still get second wind and pop to 2455.50, an alternative target, but I've suggested caution nonetheless as the weekend approaches, especially since the lunatic/FAANG stocks are starting to look a little winded.

Wednesday's selling bottomed three ticks above the 2423.25 target where we'd intended to bottom-fish, denying us an opportunity to catch the 10-point bounce that followed. The bounce was technically unimpressive and inconsequential, but the day ended with a slightly bullish bias for the very near-term. Take a few steps back, however, and you can see a bigger picture (inset) that provides reason for caution. Specifically, last week's record high occurred almost precisely at the 2439.00 Hidden Pivot resistance shown. An upward reversal and stab through it would be very bullish, especially if it were to occur by week's end. However, for the time being we should presume that the futures will need a rest of at least 3-5 days before they can try to muscle their way past a target that took four months to reach. Yes, the recent peak could mark the start of The Big One. But given the fact that the bull has been charging hard for more than eight years, odds are against it.

I've unfurled the yellow flag for the stock market, since AMZN, the most important stock of them all, along with the Nasdaq index, nosedived yesterday after failing to reach their respective Hidden Pivot targets. Even more bearish is that the dirtbags who manipulate AMZN and a handful of other high-flyers were unable to squeeze shorts on the opening bar. AAPL closed well off its highs, suggesting that fatigue is beginning to take its toll on the momentum players that institutional investors have become. Concerning Apple, click here for a great and well-deserved hatchet job on the company by The Venture Company's Georges van Hoegaerden.

Tuesday's feisty rally exceeded the 1296.40 rally target we'd been using by a relatively modest $2.40, but because the pattern associated with the target is so clear, even as small an overshoot as occurred will have bullish implications going forward. Accordingly, I'll suggest using the pattern shown (see inset), with a 1314.50 target that should be familiar to you. It is a logical minimum upside objective for the near term, but I wouldn't count on it for precise stopping power. That's because the A-B impulse leg of the pattern is not a legitimate one, having failed to surpass any external highs on the daily chart. Still, it's good enough for our purposes -- i.e., staying on the right side of the trend without fear. It's also good enough to imply that an easy move through it would be bound for a test of the 1345.20 election night high. _______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 6:05 p.m. EDT): Today's weakness generated a minor bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. If the decline continues, breaching the 1280.20 low shown,  the short-term outlook would turn bearish -- the moreso if the declining abc pattern exceeds its 'd' target.

As anticipated, volatility readings flirted with historical lows on Monday, presumably bound even lower. Traders who have been itching for 'something' to happen right away shouldn't get their hopes too high. However, we are not clueless about when the stock market's wafting tedium might end. For details that could prove useful for speculation, including some very precise Hidden Pivot benchmarks, check out my latest updates in VXX, AMZN and AAPL.