Rick Ackerman

Index futures were in their wonted Sunday night dirge, threatening to send volatility readings to new all-time lows.  I say "threatening," but what it amounts to is menacing us with nothing more than another dollop of tedium at a time when most of us are probably expecting excitement. We should be careful what we wish for, however, since Mr Market seldom provides the kind of excitement that is designed to give pleasure. On the other hand, how likely is it that Wall Street's best and brightest are counting on a happy outcome now that the housing and auto sectors have begun to roll down? Let's brace for the worst, I say, but please let's get it over with already!

We hold four June 16 13.50 calls for 0.45 after four June 2 calls of the same strike expired worthless on Friday, socking us with a $180 position loss. I am awed by the power and persistence of the downtrend, which now looks likely to achieve a minimum 12.47, or even 11.26, before VXX can turn around. If and when the first number is reached, I'll recommend buying some June 23 13.00 calls, but you should save some ammo to buy calls even more aggressively if 11.26 is achieved. Volatility bettors should be pretty shell-shocked by then as VXX racks up a new record lows like an untethered anchor sinking to the bottom of the Marianas Trench. Volatility, or rather the lack of it, has become the stock-market story of the year -- an ironic turn of events, since it elevates tedium itself into the realm of the extraordinary. I've never seen anything quite like it -- and neither has anyone else. _______ UPDATE (June 6, 5:04 p.m. EDT): Amidst tiresome price action in stocks, VXX somehow managed to creep higher. It would take a print at 14.07, however, to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, and 14.87 to imply that something more interesting, and perforce sustainable, is happening.

It's time to raise our sights, since AAPL has blown out of a consolidation pattern that took more than two weeks to create. My new rally target is 162.09, a Hidden Pivot resistance that will become an odds-on bet once AAPL has surpassed the midpoint pivot at 155.90 by perhaps $1.50 or closed above it for two consecutive days. This looks like such an easy romp that it's difficult to imagine the rest of the FAANG stocks, as well as the Nasdaq, failing to rise over the 5-7 days it will require for AAPL (and AMZN; see my tout elsewhere on this page) to reach its target. A 'mechanical' bid at the red line is recommended provided the retracement to it on the hourly chart meets our criteria for this type of trade. The stop-loss would be at 153.83. _______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 7:36 p.m. EDT): There's no change in my forecast, but here's a link to a terrific hatchet job on Apple written by The Venture Company's Georges van Hoegaerden. I've been dissing Apple (and its cult of buyers) for years, but never as well as this article. _______UPDATE (Jun 6, 5:15 p.m.): AAPL trapped bulls with a feint late in the day that came within nine cents of the 155.90 pivot flagged above; then it receded swiftly to close with a fractional gain. As noted above, the stock must push decisively above 155.90 before it could become an odds-on bet to reach 162.09. _______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 6:30 p.m.): AAPL's opening-bar head-fake to 155.98 doesn't qualify as a decisive push above the 155.90 threshold noted above. The stock looked ready to push higher at the close, but we'll let it tell us where to next.

The futures turned hard from 0.80 above the 1260.50 correction target we were using Friday to bottom-fish, so officially nothing was done on the trade. The subsequent rally was a doozy, hitting 1282.20 by the final bell. The pattern shown strongly implies the uptrend will continue to exactly 1289.10 if it can push past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1282.10. A small and potentially tradeable pullback should be expected from that number, give or take a couple of ticks, but if and when it's brushed aside we'll switch to a larger and more significant pattern, with a correspondingly more significant target at 1296.40. We should be prepared to see some stopping power there, but if buyers are able to push the futures more than 2-3 points above it within hours of touching it, we should infer that the uptrend is just starting to warm up. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 8:20 p.m. EDT): Today's clueless tedium changed nothing in my immediate outlook (see above), even if it failed to inspire confidence in a quick push to the very modest target. If and when makes its move, we should want to see buyers blow through the target without hesitation.

We're using a 1018.73 rally target for AMZN, the only stock we need to watch closely if we want to get the stock market right. You can bet that as long as the retail giant's shares are headed higher, any predictions about a crash on Wall Street will be premature at best and distracting at worst. Notice that there is yet one more rally target to use if this one gets obliterated: 1083.31. A move to that Hidden Pivot would be the culmination of a bull cycle that has taken 16 months so far to unfold. If the AB and CD legs of the rally prove to be symmetrical in time, the top would be reached sometime in the second week of July. That's what I'll be looking for, although I'll also be watching closely for either a potentially significant turndown from somewhere south of the target, or a spike that hits it ahead of my July estimate.  But it won't be over until the Fat Lady sings -- and this stock, as far as I'm concerned, is a 350-pound diva. _______ UPDATE (June 6, 6:40 p.m. EDT): AMZN nosedived after getting within about $2 of the 1018.73 target in the early going. I have turned cautious, especially since the selloff generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. The stock would be a fetching 'mechanical' buy nonetheless if it falls to 992.53, a conventional, green-line entry point. It is already a 'mechanical' buy in theory at p=1002.90, stop 995.98, but I'd suggest substituting a 'camouflage' entry to cut the initial risk by as much as 90%.

A 2439.00 rally target that we'd been using for weeks came within three ticks of nailing Friday's top, but bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. For in fact, the subsequent pullback was too shallow to suggest buyers are the least bit tired, and unless North Korea starts a nuclear war over the weekend, we should expect the broad averages to continue doing what they've been doing for the last 87 months -- i.e., move relentlessly higher.  There's a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 2440.75 that comes from a pattern gnarly enough to give it some stopping power, but if it is easily brushed aside we'll need to use a new pattern with a 2457.75 minimum target to keep from getting fooled. A proper pullback to the pink line (p2=2422.75) would generate a 'mechanical' buy signal in theory, but to further reduce risk, I'd suggest using this tactic only on a full retracement to the green line (2252.75), stop 2317.50.

The rampaging bull paused as the week drew to a close, presumably to gather strength for a run-up to the 143.29 target shown or higher. This is not yet a done deal, since the stall just inches shy of the 141.43 secondary pivot indicates that the QQQs know it's there and that it may not be a  pushover. On the other hand, the rally shredded the 140.00 target of another promising pattern, implying that significantly higher prices impend -- if not right away, then presumably following a moderate correction. Note as well that the point 'A' low I've used leaves room for lower alternatives, and therefore higher targets. If the rally were to complete the pattern tied to the lowest of them, 130.38, the new target would b e 145.13. We'll move to the sidelines ahead of Tuesday's opening, since there's too much guesswork in trying to predict how stocks will open following a three-day holiday weekend.  We hold no position at the moment, since two separate orders to buy put June 9 put options on Friday went unfilled. Some puts we'd held from an earlier trade expired worthless, but not before subscribers had the opportunity to exit most of them for up to ten times what they'd paid. _______ UPDATE (June 4, 6:30 p.m. EDT): The Cubes are headed to the 145.13 target flagged above. Here's the chart, and you can judge for yourself how very un-likely it is they won't get there. Short the target aggressively, but I recommend doing so only if you've been long for the ride to it. Here's how to catch a ride: Bid at the pink line 'mechanically', stop 142.03, day order. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 8:34 p.m.):  If QQQ gets within 0.06 of the target on Tuesday, buy four June 16 145

Fueled by Trump's rejection of the global climate accord, the futures were closing fast Thursday night on a potentially important target at 2439.00 that has been in play since March 28. It is short-able with a stop-loss as tight as 2340.10 (or via camouflage if you want to better your odds), especially if you've been long for the ride up, but if the stop is demolished we should infer that more upside impends, presumably to at least 2455.50. That target is derived using a lower point 'A' at 2259.50 (2/2). Both targets are sufficiently clear and compelling that I'd be surprised if the uptrend blows past either without at least a scalp-able pullback. _______ UPDATE (June 2, 10:12 a.m. EDT): The futures have fallen 10 points so far after topping at 2437.25 this morning. The 2439.00 target served us well in recent weeks, keeping us on the right side of the trend and providing a precise exit point for any long positions. If you did not get short when this vehicle topped earlier today, I wouldn't recommend trying it on a second pass. Anyone who did get short should let me know in the chat room, since I will establish a tracking position if I hear from two or more subscribers who took positions.

Use the 1260.50 target shown to take the measure of this correction or to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 1259.90. You'll be on your own if the order fills, but please note that a print at the stop would be telegraphing further weakness. A larger, bullish pattern projecting to 1296.40 (60-min, A=1221.00 on 5/10) is still intact and will remain so unless the decline exceeds 1249.10 to the downside. That pattern will trip a 'mechanical' buy signal  at 1260.90, stop 1249.00, incidentally, but I'd suggest using a 'camouflage' set-up on the 10-minute chart or lower to initiate the trade.