Rick Ackerman

A well-advertised rally target at 4113.75 served us well last week, providing the rationale for long and short positions posted in the chat room that could have produced profits of $10,000 or more for subscribers who followed my simple instructions. (Nearly all of them included charts.) For all its histrionics, the September contract never closed above the target, although it did reach an intraday high of 4422.50 on Thursday.  That could be the Mother of All Tops as far as we know, although I doubt it. For now, we can use the tepidly bullish pattern in the chart to manage our expectations as the new week begins. D=4439.75 can serve as a minimum upside target, although I wouldn't suggest trying to extract any more 'mechanical' 'buys' from this pattern. For the record, it has yet to give a bad signal, implying we can look forward to shorting at 'D' if and when it is reached. This would likely be by way of an rABC pattern, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 5:32 p.m.): I'd like to see a close above last week's highs and a pop that seems to jettison the 4413.75 resistance. That's what I think it would take for Mr. Market to set the hook. The flat top created by the last seven sessions looks too wishy-washy to have sucked in bulls with the kind of trap that brings drama. Neither has it given bears relief nor the kind of acute pain that's needed to crush the last of them in this minor bull cycle. _____ UPDATE (9:05 p.m.): I'm not so sure we're going to see that last head-fake above my prospective major top at ES 4413.75. Lockdown 2.0 is coming, and it's going to finish off all of

Although bitcoin is known for extreme volatility and savage ups and downs, it winds up being the most predictable and tradeable of all the vehicles I track. I cannot recall the last time a mechanical buy in BRTI did not produce a fat profit, and that's going back a couple of years across trends both minor and major. I've established a tracking position for this move because a chat room regular used the pattern shown, buttressed by my explicit guidance, to get long 'mechanically' at the green line. Although I've warned about the thick layers of supply bitcoin will encounter above 40,000 enroute to possible new record highs, there is zero doubt at the moment that this thrust will reach the 44,953 target first broached here last week.  Plan on shorting there aggressively if you've made money on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 4:35 p.m.):  Ratcheting torture has stopped out bulls no fewer than six times since Sunday night's peak at 41,806. Rick's Picks subscribers appear to have avoided the rapid-fire treachery with a 'mechanical' entry at x=38,526 on Monday.  It's under water at the moment, but I still rate the trade '7.2'.  The stop-loss is at 36431. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 10:31 p.m.): After dipping below the green line, BRTI bounced $2400 to 39,949 putting our position nicely in-the-black. Most subscribers who reported doing the trade in the chat room seemed to have taken a partial profit, but if you haven't done so, exit half here (at 39,374) and  use a 38,305 stop-loss for the rest. _____ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:34 p.m.,): Okay, okay, we get the picture.  The psychotics who play with this loaded pistol are clearly able to aim it 10% either way, and sometimes both, on a given day. This has not affected the

December Gold's promising mid-week rally died an inch shy of a mid-July's peak at 1839, disappointing bullion fans for the umpteenth time.  The rally was impulsive nonetheless on the hourly chart, and that is why we should view the pullback, sharp as it's been, as merely corrective.  We'll continue to use the 1858.60 target of a middling 'reverse' pattern as a minimum upside objective, but for trading purposes I'll suggest focusing on the bullish pattern begun from Wednesday's 1795.60 low. Stay tuned to the chat room for tradeable details as they develop in real time. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 8:30 a.m. ET):  Gold has taken a stab higher today, slightly exceeding the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a pattern projecting to as high as 1850.10 over the near term. We'll use that Hidden Pivot as a new minimum upside projection, since you can never go far wrong in gold by lowering your sights. Skeptical though we should be, a pullback to the green line (1818.70) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy sufficient appealing to warrant a rating of 7.0. We needn't treat p2=1839.60 as anything special, although a little extra caution there is suggested, assuming it is reached. Here's the latest chart. ______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 10:41 p.m.): The 'mechanical' long from 1818.70 barely survived the wickedest head-fake reversal we've seen in recent memory. All we can do now is stick with our game plan, implying a stop-loss at 1808.1, a single tick beneath today's hellacious low. It should be held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at p=1829.20. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:48 p.m.): The trade stopped out for a $4000 loss. This was the first losing trade using a 'mechanical' signal in as long as I can remember. The Hidden Pivot Method doesn't care how wacky

Ordinarily I would suggest a 'mechanical' short on a rally to the green line (26.19), but there's something so unappealing about this pattern that I'm more inclined to get long, provided we can find a proper set-up to do so.  It's not as though bears have shown much strength or enjoyed much success betting the 'don't pass' line.  The 24.04 'D' downside target will remain theoretically viable nonetheless, but my hunch is that  it will be negated this week with a push above C=26.91.  ______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:52 p.m.): So far, my hunch has been wrong. Still, bears have no real power over Silver other than to bludgeon it do death for a couple of hours at a stretch, so I won't get too exercised yet about the prospect of a full-blown sell-off to D=24.04.  That doesn't mean I am hankering to bottom-fish, however. ______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:34 a.m.): The futures have gotten pounded so hard today that the 24.04 downside target now looks very likely to be hit. Here's a chart for those who enjoy bottom-fishing. I like the odds. 

The Dow Industrials have been screwing the pooch for nearly four months. That's when DIA first popped through a midpoint resistance at 335.00 that is associated with a long-term rally target at 364.31. However, this ETF vehicle has since failed to break decisively above p2=349.65, keeping the outcome in limbo and making DIA a very unappetizing trade, other than for covered writes and similar short-premium option positions. You can see for yourself that the graph provides little reason to think the target won't be reached. Absent a game-changing plunge exceeding mid-June's 333 low, we'll keep this tout on the back burner. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:56 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

If you're worried that interest rates are about to explode because of inflation, the graph above would seem to offer comfort. From a visual standpoint, the gentle rollover that has occurred over the last several months has sapped the vigor from a menacing spike that had pushed yields on the 10-Year Note from 0.40% at the start of the pandemic to a high of 1.76% in early April. The surge also failed to surpass previous highs near 2%, suggesting there is considerable resistance at that level. For the time being, this holds positive implications for the U.S. economy, since T-Note rates largely determine how much mortgage and corporate borrowers must pay for loans. It also helps to sustain the illusion of a stability in the global banking system. That's because even a small tightening of the interest rate screw would have dire consequences if applied to the $2 quadrillion of borrowing amassed in the derivatives market. These financial instruments are used ostensibly for hedging, but over time their use has expanded to accommodate leveraged speculation on a cosmic scale. A Network of Nerves What would it take to crash this market? No one has a clue, although it is probably fair to say that it is as complex, and therefore ultimately as fragile, as a human nervous system. The synaptic connections are based on trust rather than neurons, however, and that is why a systemic failure would likely be total rather than merely in one "hemisphere" or the other. A further implications is that if stress levels got high enough, something akin to a stroke would result. Fortunately, with ten-year rates at a current 1.24%, we are well below the danger zone. That's equivalent to a blood-pressure reading of perhaps 130/80. Realize, however, that this seemingly normal reading exists only

An important strength of the Hidden Pivot Method is its simplicity. The recent success of several E-Mini S&P trades posted in the chat room suggests that it would be quite difficult to improve on the results, even using a very sophisticated system. This lesson focuses on a few Hidden Pivot basics, including our workhorse ‘mechanical’ set-up that has proven its value time and again with flexibility and, yes, forgiveness.

The September futures on Friday spasmed to within an inch of a 4413.75 rally target that has served as our lodestone since mid-May. This promising Hidden Pivot helped keep our trading bias aligned with the uptrend. It also mitigated hubris whenever we attempted to get short at lesser resistances proffered like canapes by technically oriented subscribers in the chat room. As I noted earlier, there is a question about  how well a target so obvious can work, especially since the algos and droolers seem to have developed an addiction to the same ABCD patterns that had long buttered our bread. On the other hand, the target is sufficiently clear and compelling as to nearly preclude the possibility that the futures will simply blow past it.  Under the circumstances, we will almost certainly see a shorting opportunity very near 'D', but we'll have to discover its precise location and exploit it with risk tightly controlled after things get rolling again Sunday night. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. _____ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:37 p.m.): Several trades were in fact offered up in the Trading room, including an after-hours winner that could have netted you about $850 in an hour. Check it out! ______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:25 p.m.): The futures have been bludgeoned down to 4368.00 this morning after having traded just three points above the 4313.75 target I'd been drum-rolling for weeks. Numerous subscribers reported taking profits on the short trade detailed above, and at least one subscriber remains short a few for a swing at the fences. I still think a major top is in. _____ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:03 p.m.): We've used the 4413.75 to good advantage recently with several bear trades that could have been worth as much as several thousand dollars to those

I'd planned to remove QQQ from the list because of a lack of interest. However, due to last week's unexpected put-butterfly lollapalooza in the chat room, and because of the promise of possible excitement to come, I'll leave the Cubes on the home page for now. You should all have an ample supply of Sep 30 250/270/290 put butterflies purchased for 0.22 or less, and so I will track 16 of them at that price. For the present, do nothing further. QQQ has gotten with five-one-hundredths of a percentage point of the 368.70 rally target I first advertised here some time ago, and it is as promising a place to get short as we've seen in a long while. [Note: As of 7/26, the target has now been achieved with a new record high at 368.89.] I trust that the money you are risking to get short has come entirely come from profits tied to a bullish target whose reliability was never in doubt.  Even so, we shouldn't be shocked if a stock market gripped by fever goes even higher. My hunch is that any rally will not get very far -- just far enough to raise doubts in the minds of other traders, bearishly inclined, who are aware of this pattern and its target. Our $350 bet will at least make whatever happens entertaining to watch -- and not too costly if fever wins out. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 11:10 p.m. ET):  Addled with methamphetamine, the Cubes bored through a granite Hidden Pivot resistance on the opening bar and then spent the rest of the day frolicking just above it.  This is NOT how head fakes/false breakouts occur, so if you've had your fingers crossed that the wack-jobs who have been driving this hoax into outer space were close to