Rick Ackerman

The SPX hasn't moved more than 0.5% intraday for 14 straight days -- the longest such streak since 1971, a subscriber noted in the chat room toward the end of Wednesday's sleep-inducing session. Short-squeeze rallies, nearly all of them sprung at the opening bell, have failed to get legs, and the declines invariably have been shallow and short-lived.  We must assume even so that the E-Mini S&Ps are bound for the 2454.50 target shown. For the record, they are currently on a 'mechanical' buy signal at 2386.13, stop 2363.00, but I've recommended using a 'camouflage' entry trigger instead if you want to cut the implied initial risk of $1150 per contract down to perhaps a tenth of that. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 5:10 p.m.): It's always brightest before the dusk, and so we shouldn't despair over sellers' inability on Thursday to put this hoax down after thrashing bulls in the early going. The futures recouped most of their losses by day's end after having been down 16 points at the opening. Despite this, there was no particular enthusiasm or energy in the buying. This suggests DaBoyz will have an even more difficult time trying to levitate the broad averages as the week draws to a close.

We're all feeling it as the stock market continues from one insufferably boring day to the next: Something big is about to happen.  But it can take far longer than any of us might care to imagine.  I can recall sitting on the risers of the PSE trading floor for weeks stretching into months, doing crossword puzzles in-between rare visits from the thieving brokers who worked for Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan, Goldman et al. They bore mostly what we called 'pick-off paper' -- orders from customers that the firms themselves invariably front-ran.  You might have thought they were as harmless as belled cats, since we were onto their game. But so juicy did the prices they were willing to pay seem that we invariably traded with the dirtbags anyway, knowing full well that the underlying stock would soon print at some absurd price miles from the quoted market. And it often did, even before we'd finished handing the dirtbags our trade tickets.

We have unfulfilled targets as high as 2492.50, but the 2455.50 Hidden Pivot shown in the chart can serve for now. I like the 120-minute graph here because it shows the rally for what it is: a labored, grunting affair whose progress has been wholly dependent on short-covering rather than steady buying. Moreover, virtually all of the gains since mid-April have come via gaps at the opening bell, and even then it has taken as long as three weeks to consolidate for the next push, all of which have been relatively modest. Another reason for skepticism is that the short-covering binges have been triggered by news, most of it unsurprising and already well discounted. The distance between where the futures are trading now and the 2455.50 target is equivalent to about 500 Dow points, yardage that bulls could easily have traversed in two or three days in the not-so-distant past. But you can see in the chart that a push to the target could take several weeks if things continue as they've been. We'll maintain our bullish trading bias for the time being nonetheless, but we should be ready to reverse polarity if an intraday downtrend generates a bearish impulse leg on this chart. That hasn't happened for seven weeks, but the next time could be warning of real trouble.

Stock market volatility as represented by the VIX is approaching the all-time low of 9.39 recorded back in 2006. As noted here earlier, this could only happen if most traders had bet heavily that the stock market was about to do 'something big'. Instead, Monday's feeble oscillations extended a moribund dirge that seems likely to persist until the very last volatility bettor has been incinerated. We took a small stake ourselves but left room to buy more call options if and when VXX, an ETF that tracks VIX, comes down to a specific price target we've held in mind. For explicit details, check out my latest update to the VXX tout, below.

With QQQ an inch of from a long-term Hidden Pivot resistance at 138.19, we took a small starter position in put options and will be looking to buy a few more as this vehicle gets even closer to the target.  Subscribers reported acquiring two May 26th 137 puts for as little as 0.78, leaving a 0.55 bid for six more, good-till-canceled, as instructed. The trade was also posted on The Scoreboard and sent out as an intraday alert to all subscribers who have checked 'EMail Notifications' on their account page. If you are in on the trade and want to stay apprised of changes in real time, tune to the chat room. Any significant changes to the position will be announced via intraday email alerts. Please note that if the 138.19 target is decisively exceeded, QQQ would be signaling additional upside to at least 149.41. We'll look to buy additional puts there, too, as warranted. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:39 p.m. ET): Subscribers who followed my guidance own eight May 26 137 puts for an average $61. QQQ looked menacingly strong at the close, but we'll sit with the position for a couple more days anyway -- in part to take advantage of a potentially important May 11 turn date flagged by my go-to guy for cycles, Peter Eliades. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 5:34 p.m.): As noted in The Morning Line, today's bounce, deftly manipulated as it was, failed to exceed any prior peaks on the hourly chart. Maintain short positions.

Stocks broke out of a tiresome two-week consolidation on Friday, evidently eager to hit the ground running as the new week begins. This move should eventually carry the Dow 500 points higher, to around 21,500. That's not much of a gain percentage-wise, but I have a feeling it could still take at least 6-10 days to get there, since the bull market has grown wholly dependent on short-covering to achieve new highs. Short-covering requires ostensibly good news, but the only headline available for that purpose at the moment is today's victory by the not-Trump candidate in France. Unfortunately for bulls, the outcome was stale news even before it happened, and that's why stock are getting almost no lift Sunday evening.

With AAPL just inches from achieving the 150.24 rally target we've been using to surf the trend, it's time to examine still-more-bullish scenarios. With last week's spike higher, the stock broke out above a long-term target at 144.56 (see inset) that was based on a pattern dating back to the start of the bull market in 2009.  To project an even higher target, I have simply taken the C-D leg of this pattern and treated it as an 'extension' of the completed pattern (click here for chart). It projects to 168.46, implying we are about to see a rally of about 13% from these levels. Judging from the way AAPL speared the 128.91 midpoint resistance, 168.46 seems very likely to be achieved. This is notwithstanding Friday's stall almost precisely at the 148.71 'secondary' pivot of the extension pattern. Although that could prove to be the end of the bull market in theory, it seems improbable. In any event, you should trade the stock with a confidently bullish bias until such time as 168.46 is hit, using pullbacks to the relevant Hidden Pivot levels shown (i.e., at p or x of the extension pattern) to generate 'mechanical' buy signals. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time when appropriate, since we may be able to convert these signals to 'camouflage' entry triggers with the potential to reduce entry risk to literal pennies per share. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 6:47 p.m. ET): The stock continued to shred its way higher, hitting 153.70 intraday. With this decisive thrust above the 148.71 'secondary pivot,' the level can potentially be used to set up a 'mechanical' buying trigger. First, however, in accordance with our rules, AAPL will need to hover above it for at least three days. For now, let's sit back

The futures finally broke out of a consolidation pattern Friday following seven days' of constipated price action.  Although we've been using 2492.50 as a big-picture rally target, the 2429.75 target shown, a minor Hidden Pivot Hidden resistance, can serve as a precise benchmark for the near term. Since we never assume the midpoint resistance will be exceeded on the first try, or even that it will be exceeded at all, it can be used for now as a minimum upside objective on Monday. If it gives way easily, that would be a clear sign that 2429.75 is likely to be reached soon thereafter. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line can be bought 'mechanically,' stop 2375.50. Once the futures have held decisively above the red line (p=2402.63) for the required several bars, it too can be used to set up a 'mechanical' entry bid, stop 2393.50. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 6:56 p.m. ET): The futures spiked above the red line at 2402.63 (see above) on the opening bar, but only by 1.00 point. The bull trap this thimble-rigging maneuver created is likely to weigh on Tuesday's opening, but buyers should be sufficiently refreshed by mid-morning to attempt a run at Monday's 2403.75 high.

Silver's losing streak could make it into the record book if it continues for yet a little while longer. The July contract has fallen for 13 straight days and is starting to look like the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies, who lost 21 straight games before beating the Milwaukee Braves 7-4 on a stiflingly hot day in August, 1961.  I was a bigger Phillies fan back then than I am a silver fan now. They had Robin Roberts, Stan Lopata, Harry Anderson, Ed Bouchee and a catcher name Carl Sawatski who is best remembered, if remembered at all, for having caught behind home plate without a chest protector. Were that Silver showed such daring and pluck! Instead, it has continued relentlessly lower and seems bound for the 15.485 target shown (a slight adjustment from the target previously given here). I'm confident it will achieve that Hidden Pivot and that there will be a tradeable bounce from very close to it. But to all of you silver bulls who like to dream big dreams, the bounce would need to reach 19.11 (!) to provide any real encouragement for the long-term. Incidentally, I am treating June Gold as a separate case, since its long-term chart doesn't look nearly as bad. Check it out elsewhere on this page if you're looking for a ray of hope. _______ UPDATE (May 7, 6:30 p.m.): The futures groped for a precarious foothold on Friday but showed little energy for extricating themselves from the deep hole they've dug over the last three weeks. The 15.485 target flagged above still obtains but would recede as an imminent probability with an upthrust on Monday exceeding 16.700.  _______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:55 p.m.): Although the 15.485 target will remain in play, look for a bounce from above $16 by week's end, since