Rick Ackerman

My latest tout for silver futures makes for grim reading. However, because Comex Gold's chart leaves more room for a bullish outcome over the next couple of months, I've decided to treat it as a separate case. For in fact, June Gold would become a 'mechanical' buy if it pulls back to 1213.60, the green line shown in the chart (see inset).  Because the implied entry risk would be about $8400 per contract, however, we'll want to convert any 'mechanical' buying signal that occurs into a 'camouflage' entry trigger in order to hold the theoretical entry risk down to a more do-able $40-$80 per contract. Gold's price action fits a pattern it has exhibited for well more than a year, rallying no farther than it has to in order to lift bulls from the pit of despair; and then plummeting to exactly the threshold where that despair has returned in full. It certainly does feel like a bear-market tease. However, from a purely technical standpoint, this behavior has created a long-term bullish picture going back to late 2015 with a projected top as high as 1464.90. Keep in mind, though, that that number will remain pie-in-the-sky until such time as the futures push decisively above p=1297.40, a key midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. We anticipated a stall there to the exact tick, but as always, there was no predicting with confidence at the time how far or for how long this arguably corrective weakness might last. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 7:34 p.m. ET): The futures were barely treading water today and will likely need to fall at least somewhat lower before they can muster a robust bounce. The most bullish spot for this to occur would be from p=1220.20, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown here. The rally would then need

Price action became tedious and labored last week in the days following Monday's ferocious short-squeeze, but there should be little doubt that our minimum rally target for the near term, 2405.13, will be achieved. It's what happens after that that will matter most, since a decisive push above the pivot within 2-3 days of its first being touched would signal a likely follow-through to as high as 2492.50.  Odds of reaching the target would shorten somewhat if index futures open with a lurch higher Sunday night at or above a minor bullish tripwire at 2385.50. Still more encouraging would be a close above 2392.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a minor bullish pattern on the 15-minute chart (A=2365.75 on 4/24). _______ UPDATE (May 4, 4:28 p.m.): Yet again, there is no change in the immediate outlook. Zzzzzzzzzzz.

With Q1 earnings season behind us, the thoughtful observer can only shake his head over Wall Street's feverish obsession with meaningless financial data. It's obvious that few investors even remotely care about the quality of corporate earnings any longer, only whether those earnings come in a few pennies higher or lower than predicted. But that doesn't begin to capture the insanity of the game, for stocks are being pushed to ridiculous heights for reasons unrelated to corporate performance. Share buybacks are a powerful contributor to the illusion of wealth. Companies with billions in surplus cash borrow vast additional sums for practically nothing in order to buy back their own shares. The effect is to drive earnings multiples higher without producing any economic growth -- other than enriching insiders who hold stock options and receive performance bonuses. In my most recent conversation with Howe Street's Jim Goddard, I discuss this and other topics, including the potentially deflationary impact of 3D printers. Click here to access the interview, which runs about 20 minutes.

Another dull day had us looking harder than ever for good trading opportunities. What we found may have been unrewarding from that standpoint. However, the session was interesting nonetheless for the insights it gave us into the subtle ways we can use Hidden Pivots to understand and exploit price action even when it is at its most difficult. There are a few classroom gems here. See if you don't agree.

"Despite extreme valuations, investors’ fear of missing out is looking increasingly desperate," says John Hussman in a May 1 report concerning the stock market's recent tendency to move higher with lurching gaps on the opening bell. Although gaps are fairly common for individual stocks and not especially bearish, when they involve the overall market, notes Hussman, "they tend to have far more hostile outcomes, particularly when they are associated with record highs, rich valuations, lopsided bullish sentiment, and deterioration in the uniformity of market internals." Sound familiar? For the full, meticulously detailed report, published by Hussman Funds as a Weekly Market Comment, click here.

In after-hours trading, AAPL fell 2.15 shy of a 150.24 rally target I'd posted in the chat room.  The miss is attributable to disappointing iPhone sales in the first quarter of 2017. The stock spiked irrationally higher on the news, presumably driven by algorithms that are wont to act even more stupidly and irrationally than the humans who program them. At the end of the day, the result was a bull-trap high that is likely to cap the stock for a while -- perhaps for a few days or longer. This will undoubtedly weigh on the broad averages, particularly the NASDAQ, which is represented by a popular ETF trading vehicle QQQ.  The Cubes, as they are known, fell a tad shy of their target as well, although the technical evidence is very persuasive that they eventually will achieve it. That would mean AAPL itself is likely to turn higher after correcting today's excesses, thence to resume its seemingly inexorable trek into the wild blue yonder. Under the circumstances, and weakness in the stock in the days ahead should be regarded as a buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (May 3, 8:05 p.m. ET): The stock has recouped its earnings-news losses more quickly than I'd anticipated, trampolining off a sleazy shakedown at the opening bell. The 150.24 target identified above remains viable.

S&P volatility as measured by the VIX is in a state of collapse to record lows, implying almost for certain that a great many traders had been expecting the stock market to do "something crazy" and bet heavily on it. We laid down a belated, longshot bet ourselves today in VXX, an ETF vehicle pegged to VIX, and we're prepared to wade in even deeper if volatility continues to implode. Not surprisingly, online opinion is sharply divided over what stocks might do next. One more short-squeeze spike before They pull the plug? An avalanche out of nowhere? Tedium for more weeks than any of us have the patience to abide?  Place your bets.

The selling has been so relentless over the last two weeks that even a dead-cat bounce might come as  relief to shell-shocked bulls. If it happens, they ought not count too heavily on a sustained rally, since Monday's dive did serious technical damage to the daily chart. Specifically, it exceeded March 15's low at 16.890, creating the most menacing impulse leg silver futures have seen since December. It also exceeded the 17.110 midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) shown, keeping a 15.494 downside target well in play. For bulls to get back in the game, they'd need to rally this brick to at least 17.335 [5/2 update: now 17.225] over the next 2-3 days. In any event, we'll stay on the sidelines for the time being. _______ UPDATE (May 3, 8:14 p.m. ET): If bulls are going to mount a counterattack, their best opportunity will come at 16.302, the 'secondary' pivot of the pattern shown. The bounce would need to surpass 16.700, however, to be meaningful.

Nearly all of last week's stock-market gains were generated by about two hours' worth of concerted buying, most of it short-covering on thin-to-non-existent volume on a Sunday night. It would be an understatement to say there is little bullish enthusiasm for stocks these days. Although pundits have waxed enthusiastic over Q1 earnings reported thus far, many of us have come to regard these numbers as statistical fraud; for seldom do they address the quality of earnings. And even if they did, no one on Wall Street would care as long as the headline numbers beat estimates.  The estimates, too, are a fraud, as we know, perpetrated by Wall Street shills whose paid specialty is underestimating. However, because everyone on the Street and in the news media are in on the con, the game goes on.  Even so, someone will have noticed that Q1 GDP growth has come in at 0.7%. That's the weakest quarter in three years, not that you could see any evidence of this on stock charts at the moment.