Rick Ackerman

AMZN soared skyward after the close on strong sales for Q1. I've been remiss in tracking the stock recently, especially considering that it is our number one bellwether for the stock market. That implies that as long as Amazon shares are moving even moderately higher, the broad averages can do worse than go sideways. It also means that if one gets this stock right, one cannot go far wrong with one's market forecast. So what might we expect from AMZN in the weeks ahead? For the moment, I'll suggest using 929.60 as a minimum upside projection. That's about $10 above where the stock is currently trading in after-hours. It is the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of an ABC rally pattern that projects to 974.71, a high-odds target that I mentioned in the chat room (coordinates on the 60-minute chart: A= 833.50 on 3/27; B=923.72).  However, the chart I've produced today (see inset) shows a pattern of significantly larger degree that projects to 1003.47.  We'll plan on trading with a bullish bias until AMZN gets there, but we will also look to short the pivot aggressively with a tight stop-loss because its provenance is so clear and compelling as to a possible bull-market top. _______ UPDATE (Apr 30, 6:30 p.m.): Friday's short-squeeze-powered lunatic lunge died just shy of the 952.16 'secondary' Hidden Pivot associated with our target (click here for chart) at 974.71. It looks very likely to be achieved, implying that a pullback to the green line at 907.05 should be used to get long via a 'mechanical' bid there, stop 883.99. Because that would entail nearly $1700 of initial risk per round lot, we'll plan on converting the 'mechanical' signal to 'camouflage' if the opportunity arises. For that to occur, AMZN would need to come down to within perhaps

[Note:  This resend correct the rickism in the latest update, which specified 'June 22nd' calls; I'd intended the June 2 expiration.) There is such appealing clarity in the bearish pattern shown that we should have no qualms whatsoever about sticking with our game plan to catch a profitable ride on the little sonofabitch. That means never chasing a rally, buying only on weakness, and doing so only when VXX is at or very near a Hidden Pivot swing point.  At the moment, that would imply a print within a few pennies of the 14.64 downside target shown. If the trade sets up that way, we'll use call options to leverage the anticipated bounce. So far, it has been a waiting game as we've pushed back the expiration date due to VXX's screw-all-of-you price action. Now, let me suggest bidding 0.50 for eight May 19th 15 calls, good through Wednesday._______ UPDATE (May 1, 11:11 a.m.):  VXX is getting crushed today, trading at new record lows. The actual intraday low so far is 14.64 -- my target precisely. Subscribers have reported buying the calls for 0.50 or slightly less, so I'll use 0.50 as a cost basis. Now offer half of them to close for 1.00, good-till-canceled. These are keepers with no stop-loss. Be prepared to write off the entire $400, since this is a highly speculative bet that goes against a long and powerful downtrend. _______ UPDATE (8:38 p.m.): VXX subsequently fell to new depths, raising the prospect of a further plunge to as low as 13.31 over the near term. Regardless, we'll sit on the calls for now. Click here for an hourly chart that shows the 13.31 target clearly. A drop of that magnitude is difficult to imagine although hardly inconceivable. All it would take would be for the stock

Because the June contract has yet to exceed the 1297.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart, it would be speculative to conclude that it is likely to achieve the pattern's quite bullish 1464.90 target.  However, one needn't be a chartist to discern that the target is derived from a long-term bullish pattern that is both clear and persuasive.  But if presumably corrective weakness were to return for the next several weeks, we might expect to see the futures grope their way down to 1188.60 (60-minute, a=1347.40 on 11/9/16), a fall of about 6% from current levels, before finding good  support. In any event, I can recommend bottom-fishing with a 'counterintuitive' entry that would use a set-up similar to the one sketched hypothetically at the right-hand edge of the chart. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if the futures take a path similar to this one. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 8:33 p.m. ET): No change. The futures would need to bottom in the range 1248.50-1250.00 to set up the trade noted above and described in the chart (inset). _______ UPDATE (May 3, 8:26 p.m.): Gold's already steep slide accelerated today and looks bound for at least 1232.30, or perhaps 1223.70 if any lower. Worst case over the near term would be 1210.10, a target derived from this pattern. Beware of a bounce from p=1232.30, since that would validate the pattern and its target.

AMZN and GOOG have taken psychotic leaps following the release of Q1 earnings news after Thursday's close. This is likely to have little or no effect on the Dow and S&Ps on Friday, since the broad averages would find it difficult to emulate behavior for which there is no satisfying explanation. Call it a mood swing if you will, but don't expect it to persist for the stock market in general as wild-eyed speculators try to shake off the hangover.

Five hours' worth of nervous distribution on Wednesday left the broad averages too depleted to rally into the closing bell. Instead, they took the path of least resistance and headed lower, tipping their hand for tomorrow. Barring unforeseen news that could stir the market's bullish juices, we should look for the weakness to persist into week's end. That would imply surrendering most or all of the gains achieved when word of Marine LePen's failure to capture the French presidency hit the tape Sunday night.

Wednesday's agitated price action made it seem like there was a mysterious force holding back the bullish herd. Although it felt like stocks were eager to move higher, every time they tried they got slapped down.  This generated a bearish impulse leg of minor degree by day's end, but on the bigger charts it looked like nothing of importance had happened.  We'll treat it that way, sticking with the very bullish, big-picture pattern shown. It implies minimum upside to the 2405.13 midpoint Hidden Pivot over the near term, with an odds-on shot at 2492.50 over the next 3-4 weeks if the lower resistance is easily surpassed. For trading purposes, a pullback to the green line would offer an enticing 'mechanical' entry opportunity, stop 2317.50. That would imply initial risk of about $1700 per contract, but there are other, far less stressful ways to get aboard. For guidance on this in real time, tune to the chat room if and when the futures get within 10 points of the green line. ______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 11:49 p.m. ET): Click here for an alternative rally pattern that tripped a mechanical buy signal today at 2378.38, stop 2358.00. Notice that it projects a slightly higher minimum target (i.e., p2=2408.69) than the one at 2405.13 given above.

The markets were glowering with menace Tuesday night, threatening to extend a brutal short squeeze for a third straight day -- all because the EU has gotten a reprieve from Frexit.  Marine LePen, the 'Trump candidate,' may lose the runoff election on May 7, but it's hard to imagine France, or Europe as a whole, faring much better with Macron at the helm. Under the circumstances, we should want to fade the rally. But at what level? My current target for the E-Mini S&Ps at 2439.00 leaves room for more upside, but I'd recommend that bears stay out of the way until the June contract gets there.

There are numerous target projections that can be extrapolated from the chart shown (see inset), but we'll use the one at 17.245 as a minimum downside objective because of the precise dance the futures have done above and below the 17.610 midpoint Hidden Pivot. That makes the red line a 'mechanical' short in theory, stop 17.735, but night owls should consider alternative entry tactics, since the implied initial risk would be more than $600 per contract. If the 'hidden' support at 17.245 gives way, look for more slippage to 17.160. That Hidden Pivot support looks enticing enough to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 4-5 ticks. ______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 7:09 p.m. ET): The futures rallied off a low that missed my downside target by 4.5 cents, but I don't think buyers will get very far. Look for a relapse to 17.245 on Thursday, but if that Hidden Pivot support can't hold, 17.160 would be the next stop. That looks like a promising place to try bottom-fishing, so I'll recommend doing so, stop 17.145, if you've been short for at least a part of the ride south. Alternatively, buyers would need to hoist this cinder block above 17.625 today to suggest they're capable of turning it around to end the week.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 10:57 a.m.): May Silver's decline has overshot the 17.245 target given above by two cents this morning. Given the clarity of the pattern that produced the target, we should infer that even so slight a breach as this portends still lower prices. That would imply more slippage to at least 17.160, a Hidden Pivot support I'd also noted above. Alternatively, it would take a pop exceeding  17.540 to hint of a bullish turnaround. (Note: The equivalent target for the July contract is 17.230. Click

All paths lead lower at the moment, but I've selected the one shown so that we can deal with the worst-case scenario over the near term rather than hoping for the best. The futures have yet to breach the 17.568 midpoint Hidden Pivot support by enough for us to presume the 17.160 target is a done deal. However, any further slippage on Wednesday would make it an odds-on bet to be achieved. Alternatively, the futures would need to rally above 18.040 by Thursday to suggest that bulls are capable of turning things around. The bigger picture remains quite bullish, with a long-term target at 22.644 that still obtains.