Rick Ackerman

The 345.58 target we've been using came into even sharper focus with last week's rally, athough we should be alert to a possible stall at p2=339.34, the secondary pivot. I've suggested shorting both with very tight stops, provided you've been making hay on the way up. This pattern is clearer and more compelling than the one I've flagged for the DJIA, and it is the one you should favor if you trade this vehicle.  Most immediately, that would imply placing a 'mechanical' bid at the red line (333.10), stop 328.94. You should do so only if DIA first trades a bit higher, topping in the range 339.00-340.21. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 9:13 p.m. ET): Buyers bulldozed p2=339.34, implying that more upside to at least 345.58 is all but certain.

After ceding the spotlight for a while to the small-cap IWM, the Cubes are back in fashion, moving toward a 355.05 target with a series of lunatic leaps. One of them created a gap through the 326.27 midpoint Hidden Pivot, leaving zero doubt that the target will be achieved. The pattern is an odd one, with a very elongated A-B segment, but it should be good enough for government work. In practice, this means that any one-level pullback can be bought 'mechanically'. So far, none of the retracements have qualified, but that doesn't mean we can't initiate trades using rABC patterns of smaller degree.  Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:59 p.m. EST): If the decline steepens and hits p=326.27, that would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 316.67. Here's a chart that shows it.

Last week's moderate uptrend has improved the look of the 'reverse' pattern given here earlier -- so much so that it promises to be a money-maker for months to come. That implies that May Silver has a good chance of reaching the 29.00 target, but even if not, 'mechanical' trades from x, p or even p2 will benefit from the clarity of this picture. D=29.00 is now in play theoretically, but we'll use p=26.37 as a minimum upside objective for now. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I'll provide intraday guidance to squeeze off a low-risk trade intraday. Otherwise, Pivoteers are encouraged to dive in at will, using 'reverse ABC set-ups and 'mechanical' triggers on the lesser charts to squash entry risk. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:32 p.m. ET): See my 13:28 post in the chat room, which in response to a question belatedly offered up this rABC set-up as the sort of opportunity we should look for to test the water with very tightly controlled entry risk.

Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target.  For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.

The hot fling that small-caps had with money managers earlier this year appears to be over, leaving IWM to toss about in heavy seas.  After all, what is the appeal of 'value' stocks when lunatic-sector growthies are routinely taking daily leaps of 2% or more?  The answer, graphically speaking, is a chart that projects highs only marginally above the record peak at 235.12 achieved in mid-March. Less optimistically, a couple more weeks of floundering around could add bearish shapeliness to the incipient head-and-shoulders pattern shown, auguring a fall down to the 200 level.  If this is what is about to occur, IWM is not long for this list. Kick 'em when they're down, I always say. _____ UPDATE (Apr 13, 9:43 p.m.): When the ass bandits at JP Morgan speak, we can be sure they are talking their book. In this case, they've shoved analyst Marko Kolanovic onstage to hype an impending shift from growth back to value "for a significant period." If so, the push in this vehicle to 235.12 should get under way any day now.  The levels shown in the chart can be used to set-up 'mechanical' entries, or less risky 'camouflage' triggers on smaller charts.

The inflation trade is struggling for loft, a potential victim of its own, wild popularity. “We don’t have strong reflation-trade momentum at the moment because people are waiting for more data,” said Daniel Tenengauzer, markets strategy chief at Bank of New York Mellon. By his logic, all that it would take to stoke inflation would be a little more…inflation. So much for investors' supposed collective prescience. Tenengauzer and his flock should instead be asking themselves when was the last time every investor on the planet got on the same side of a bet and made money. Answer: never. That hasn’t stopped them from praying that Tuesday’s release of CPI numbers for March will show a significant jump. Don’t these guys know that the harder they hope for statistical evidence of inflation, the less likely it is that the markets will move their way if and when it comes? Buy the rumor, sell the news, as the saying goes. Prominent among those who have made money for clients in the past by betting against the popular wisdom is Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management.  The firm’s official position is that “inflationary psychosis” has gotten too far ahead of the real thing. Hunt is an old-timer who well understands how inflation fears can flout reality – for decades, even --causing otherwise astute investors to do the wrong thing. That was the case from about 1980 on, when the few un-fearful investors who stuck with Treasurys made a bundle, racking up capital gains of 15% or more in many years. They outperformed the herd because bond prices at the long end of the yield curve are highly leveraged inversely to small decreases in short term rates. There were blips against this strategy, of course, such as in 1991, when nearly everyone

Bitcoin has been a 'mechanical' trader's dream, since virtually every buy signal that has occurred on the longer-term charts has been a winner.  For your guidance, I've been paper-trading a 47,485 buy signal from late February that is tied to a 66,880 target. It survived a 41,500 stop-loss and was ripe for profit-taking on half the position at 57,363, a secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot that comes from the weekly chart.  The new chart (see inset) shows a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 50,400 that occurred on March 25. Although it is too late to act on the signal, I am reproducing the graph nonetheless in order to introduce a new target at 72,230 that can take supplant the old one at 69,172.  Because of the clarity of the pattern, I expect a tradeable top to occur at or very near the target. The move through p has been labored, so we should expect the remaining trek to D to be herky-jerky, if not to say tortuous. As always, a dramatic blast through the D target (72,230) on first contact would imply that seemingly fantastic prices above $100,000 are actually feasible. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 11:22 p.m. ET): Buyers repeatedly head-butted p2=64,953 of the pattern targeted on 72.230 but eventually gave up. They'll be back, presumably to blast their way past this secondary pivot for a shot at 72,230. Don't forget about D=66,880, the target of the original, long-term pattern, since it could prove stubborn.

May Silver came within a half-cent on Thursday of tripping a theoretical 'buy' signal at 25.05 tied to a rally target at 29.00. The rally began Wednesday from a 23.74 low 46 cents above a 23.28 Hidden Pivot support I'd flagged as a potentially juicy buying opportunity. Some of you may have jumped the gun, to good advantage, since, in the chat room, 'Farmer' did everything but fire a cannon to alert subscribers to an imminent turn based on his own 'technicals'. We shall see. If the rally lengthens, surpassing some small 'external' peaks shown in the chart without pausing for breath, that would be most encouraging, especially since it will have begun with a clear correction target having gone unfulfilled.  The pattern shown in the chart is a 'reverse ABC', but I expect it to be serviceable for trading purpose and for gauging the strength of the rally along the way. A two-day close above p=26.37 or a spike decisively through it intraday would strongly imply more upside to D=29.00. _____ UPDATE (Apr 5, 5:41 p.m. EDT):  A timid feint higher Sunday night tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal, but the futures have gone nowhere since.  On balance I am mildly bullish, using the pattern shown in this chart for now.  Notice that today's pullback to the green line triggered a seemingly appealing 'mechanical' buy that is only slight profitable at the moment after having gone $850-per-contract in the red intraday. The pattern's 25.47 'D' pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for Tuesday. ______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 10:36 a.m.): The futures popped exactly to the 25.47 target in the dead of night, pulled back briefly then launched a new leg higher. The 25.775 target shown in this chart can serve as a minimum upside objective for now, but

I've scaled back my ambitions for this vehicle in favor of a more practical chart that promises to get us aboard the rally to 355.05 that is likely coming. The 'mechanical' opportunity that would follow a single-level pullback is a no-brainer, but we can hardly count on such good fortune, so we may have to improvise on the fly. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since any low-risk 'camouflage' or rABC set-ups that materialize are most likely to happen intraday on the lesser charts. ______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 5:44 p.m. ET): This morning's opening-bar gap through p=326.27 all but guarantees that 355.05 will be reached._______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 8:16 p.m.): The 335.05 target still looks like a winner, but I should have mentioned that p2=346.66 is a logical -- and potentially tradeable -- place for a stall.  Here's the chart.