Rick Ackerman

It was so challenging to stay short on Tuesday that the broad averages must surely be at or near an important top. This is an instinctual observation rather than a technical one, but I'm inclined to trust gut feelings based on the evidence. The two charts above illustrate the point. Notice that DIA, an ETF proxy for the Dow Industrials, head-faked on the opening bar to exceed a visually distinctive peak recorded four days earlier. The overshoot was not by much, but it would have sufficed to stop out bears using that peak to set a stop-loss just above it. Similarly, AAPL mau-maued bears on Tuesday's opening bar with a gap-up, short-squeeze opening that exceeded the previous day's closing price by nearly 3%. If that didn't spook them badly enough, the stock staged a second-wind rally that brought AAPL within striking distance of the earlier high.  The stock then fell sharply for the remainder of the day, and for good reason: buying power from short-covering bears had been spent on the two fright-mask run-ups. The foregoing is not meant to imply stocks will necessarily collapse in the next day or two, but it's obvious that Mr. Market is burning out shorts with the kind of brutal price action that could exhaust them soon. They are the most important source of buying power in a rally as grotesquely overextended as this one, and when the last of them has been gutted and disemboweled, it will be lights out for revelers.

The corrective pattern furnished here Thursday night is still on-track to fall to its D target, which for the December contract is 3233.00, nine points lower. Friday's fake overnight waft narrowly missed triggering a juicy short when it failed by a few points to reach the  green line. Now, although a run-up to the line would trigger a second signal, I am not recommending the trade unless you know how to cut the risk with an rABC set-up.  Bottom-fishing at p2=3278.25 with a tight stop-loss or 'counterintuitive' set-up will be simpler, as will similar tactics at D=3233.00.  A decisive overshoot of D would be bearish. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 4:38 p.m. ET): The trade came within an inch of getting stopped out, but I am still in love with the pattern, although no longer the odds.  An old Hidden Pivot rule says that if a beautiful set-up doesn't work, do the opposite. In this case, however, I am not recommending trading with a bullish bias because I don't trust the rally. Move to the sidelines for now. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:04 p.m.): This is exactly what I was talking about when I said Mr. Market was doing his utmost to keep bears from getting short. This kind of price action is damned near impossible to short, at least with entry risk under tight control. _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 10:33 p.m.): Call me a masochist, but I'm still in love with the pattern shown. It's stopped out bears no fewer than twice this week, and the D target at 3238.50 is slightly higher than the original, but that's where the futures are headed -- for sure! -- even if they get there without any of us patient, cautious, super-smart bears aboard.

Friday's slight dip beneath p=111.85 will not necessarily be fatal, but it did shorten the odds of a further fall to D=100.99. If this comes to pass, Apple shares will have shed 27% of their value since peaking on September 2 at 137.98. The pattern shown in the chart is gnarly, with a one-off  'A' from the planet Mars, and that is why I expect it to work well for 'mechanical' shorting or bottom-fishing on the way down. Although the C-D leg has yielded no such opportunities so far, a rally to the green line Sunday night or Monday morning would trip a 'mechanical' short, stop 122.71. Alternatively, if the stock falls straightaway to p2=106.42, you could bottom-fish there with a tight 'rABC pattern. ______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 4:47 p.m. ET):  A head-fake on the opening triggered a mechanical short at 117.27, as shown in the original chart. The position was showing a $1440 profit on 400 shares toward day's end, but this was only after the stock head-faked a second time, narrowly failing to surpass the early-morning high.  I have not established a tracking position because only one subscribers appears to have done the trade, but the 100.99 target remains valid. If you hold a position, cover half at p=111.85, but make this o-c-o with a stop-loss at 122.71. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:08 p.m.): The 112.04 low is close enough to p that you could have covered half of the short position. If you haven't done so already, I'll recommend doing so now at around 112.57.  The 100.99 target is still valid, but odds would improve if AAPL closes for two consecutive days beneath p=111.85. _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 10:47 p.m.): To leverage the 100.99 target, I'll recommend buying eight Sep 25 95/100/105 call butterflys for 0.30, good-till-canceled.

The Cubes' failure to fall to the 265.20 target on Friday is dumbfounding, but there is no point in arguing with Mr. Market. The target remains valid nonetheless and could prove opportune for tightly-stopped bottom-fishing. This is notwithstanding the fact that Friday afternoon's robust recovery seems a bit excessive to set up a plunge on Monday to a marginal new low less than two points beneath Friday's bottom. If 265.20 gives way easily, I'll recommend doubling down with a tightly stopped bid at 262.93. That's the 'D target of the same pattern, but with 'A' raised to 288.93  (9/4, 10:00 a.m.) _______ UPDATE (Sep 14, 8:20 p.m. ET):  Nothing keeps this rabid beast down for long. A thrust exceeding 282.20 would negate the pattern on which the recommendations above were based. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 5:54 p.m.): Ordinarily a gap through p such as occurred here would guarantee 'D' will be reached. In this instance, however, the stench of distribution throughout the day was so powerful that I stop short of certifying the 281.93 target as a done deal.  Let's see how it goes. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 8:23 a.m.): An overnight short-squeeze got this gas-bag to 281.72, just 23 cents shy of the target. Buyers were back at it urgently following a fall of nearly $2, but their exceeding the Hidden Pivot should not be considered a done deal until it happens. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:14 p.m.): The 281.93 target caught the start of a $7.50 plunge within 21 cents. Since no one mentioned having taken advantage of this in the chat room, I have not established a tracking position. Reports? _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 10:54 p.m.): One subscriber reported cashing out a winning option ticket in SQQQ. There is likely more where that came from, since SQQQ,

[DEC Silver] Bulls and bears have been locked in a deadly battle of tiddlywinks for a month, oscillating gratuitously in a $4 range. The tedium eventually will give way to a thrust to at least 31.285, a longstanding Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset).  It is always possible to take a small position using an entry pattern on a chart of lesser degree, and to take profits on most of it while leaving one or two contracts for a swing at the fences. In this case, however, the potentially interminable wait makes the strategy unpalatable, but also vulnerable to occasional swoons.  We might consider a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=25.671 nonetheless, but the $9,355/contract stop-loss demands a modified entry method to minimize risk. ______ UPDATE (Sep 20): The tiddlywinks marathon stretched on for yet another week as bulls awaited the right opportunity to demolish bears. A gratuitous swoon on Thursday was just Mr Market's way of reminding bulls that even being right is certain to be painful at times. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 8:55 p.m.): The futures would need to touch 27.90 to undo the technical damage wrought by today's plunge.  That's a tick higher than a small but significant 'external' peak recorded on 9/2. In the meantime, the 23.385 target shown in this chart will remain theoretically viable. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:42 a.m.): A 23.40 midpoint support is breaking down, opening a path to as low as 21.50. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:12 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply after plunging to within 36 cents of the 21.50 target. We'll repair to the sidelines, since I'd rather not mess with mister in-between. The target remains viable nonetheless.

I am leaving a GDX tout on the home page as a place-holder, having outsourced the trading of this vehicle to anyone in the chat room who is interested. It is too flaky and tedious to warrant the attention I'd need to give it in order to catch an important low or high. There have been none of either since early August, and although that could change without warning, monitoring the 15-minute chart to discern the instant of opportunity is more trouble than it's worth. That said, if the constipated correction pattern shown in the chart were to fall to the 37.64 target, I'd be an eager buyer there. Subscribers will have learned by now that moves in the opposite direction -- i.e., up --  have failed on a dozen occasions to produce the sustainable breakout we've long anticipated. Even so, a print at 44.28 should not be ignored, since it would signal the start of an upthrust to at least 47.80. ______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 5:03 p.m.): I'll lower the bar somewhat with this chart. If GDX can close for two consecutive days above p=43.35, that would be good evidence of an impending move to the 47.80 target. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): Here's an updated chart to remind you of what could happen if sellers were to seize the advantage, however briefly.  The 37.64 target was first broached a week ago (see above) and remains viable, as does the upside target at 47.80. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:01 p.m.): Today's plunge stopped just shy of negating the bullish target at 47.80, but for the time being we'll focus on the unachieved downside target at 37.64, which seems more likely to be reached than the former at present. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:15 p.m.): The downdraft overshot the 37.64 target

Gold has been screwing the pooch all summer, so there's no point in my trying to say something interesting. The December contract settled on Friday at the same price where it was trading on July 26,  and that's the story. The dramatic plunge in the second week of August proved to be inconsequential, a gratuitous bit of nastiness intended by Mr Market to disillusion bulls who may have begun to imagine that quotes would be basing above $2000. Bears have been disappointed repeatedly as well, since they've failed to push the futures down to p2=1884.70 (see inset), let alone to the D=1838.00 target of the corrective pattern shown.  I've set a wake-up call at 1980.50, since that's where the bullish story would start to become interesting again. A longstanding target at 2142.50 remains valid but is not worth pondering at the moment. The general impression is that bullion has been biding its time, albeit with an upward drift, waiting for the financial crisis that everyone knows is coming. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:18 p.m.) : A timid, fleeting poke to 1983.80 woke me but has left me groggy. A subsequent $23 pullback was less than inspiring, although hardly a disqualifier of the bullish outlook. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): Zzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:51 a.m.): Gold is breaking down from the pennant formation I featured in last week's impromptu 'disaster' presentation. Here's the bearish pattern to watch now, with likely minimum downside to p2=1885.40.  If bulls are going to turn things around before then, it would occur near 1910-11. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:05 p.m.): The futures bounced to-the-exact-tick off an 1885.40 downside target that I posted in the chat room when the futures were trading around 1917. This dead-center bullseye allowed numerous subscribers to report winning trades from the

DIA still has an outstanding target below at 271.71. If it rallies to x=279.80 in the meantime (see inset), that would trip a theoretical 'mechanical' short. This one is for experts only, however, since the signal would be a weak one. Signs are slightly bullish, though, since two days of trying could not bring DIA down to p2=274.40. In addition, the bearish impulse leg from the 292.36 high recorded on September 3 is weak. My hunch is that bulls and bears alike will get racked by Mr. Market this week and that any decent trading opportunities will come from intraday signals on the lesser charts.______ UPDATE (Sep 14, 8:31 p.m.): The day began with a gap-up short squeeze and ended with shorts looking like dead ducks. If more of the same send DIA above the 285.79 peak from 9/4, bears had better dive for cover. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 5:11 p.m.): Mr. Market, friendly as a rattlesnake, head-faked DIA above an important peak on the opening bar, then it receded for the remainder of the day. This was meant as a reminder to bears that even when they are right, which seems to be the case at the moment, it is still extremely difficult to hold onto a well-timed short position. We shall see. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:22 pm.): Distribution, anyone? Pretty feeble, at that. _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 11:05 p.m.): The gap through =278.76 on the opening bar means DIA is headed down to at least D=273.29. You can get short 'mechanically' with  put options if this hoax rallies to the green line, 281.50. Stop yourself out at 284.24.

I've been looking for signs that the upturn from 91.75 on September 1 is the start of a major bull run, but so far the evidence is inconclusive. The impulsive rally since then had a chance to demonstrate exceptional strength by surpassing the three 'external' peaks shown in the chart. In the actual event, it got past only the first before correcting significantly as last week ended. Bulls could make amends with a thrust this week that vaults the other two peaks, but until that happens, we should view the rally with caution, if not quite skepticism. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:25 pm.): The lack of follow-through to the rally begun on September 1 from 91.75 has been dispiriting, but don't give up yet. It would take but an unpaused thrust exceeding peaks #2 and #3 to change the picture dramatically. ______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 10:12 p.m.): With just a modest upthrust, the Dollar Index will take out two 'external' peaks, generating an impulse leg on both the intraday and daily charts. Its imputed power will depend on whether it can do so without any more pullbacks, even minor ones, and the move would be even more bullish if DYX doesn't trade beneath the higher peak (93.99) for at least a week or so after exceeding it. Here's the chart.