Rick Ackerman

TLT has taken a promising but still-fragile bounce from the 112.31 secondary Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. When reversals occur at p2, they sometimes continue in the same direction, eventually stopping out the pattern with a move through 'c' -- in this case 123.03.  This dynamic is called 'Matt's Curse', named for the subscriber who first observed it, and in this case the implications are bullish. The rally would become less tentative with a pop above  the 'external' peak at 119.31 recorded on May 3. ______ UPDATE (May 24, 10:05 p.m.): The short-squeeze gap on the opening kept the rally alive by generating a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart, albeit by a hair. The next thrust must exceed 120.35 to keep the elevated mood stoked.

There's a Hidden Pivot support at 1757.40 to break gold's steepening fall, but then what?  A tradeable low seems very likely to occur there, or somewhat lower near one of several 'external' lows that stairstep down to 1704.30. The downtrend could even end with Friday's 1797.20 low, the pattern's 'secondary' pivot, but I wouldn't count on it. The futures are certain to be volatile and therefore tradeable while they carve out a bottom, but opportunities will necessarily be labor-intensive and short-lived.

Silver's interminable dirge might not reverse until it falls to 19.20, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Although it's possible the turn could come from as high as p2=20.23, that seems unlikely because of the relentless downward ratcheting that has characterized this mini-bear move. Initial price action at p=21.27 suggests that if and when the July contract comes down to 19.20, it will be possible to bottom-fish there with a very tight stop-loss. 'Mechanical' shorting opportunities may materialize in the meantime, but so far none of the rallies has been strong enough to set up the trade.

Use the 14,751 target as a maximum downside objective for the next few weeks. If Bertie gets there, that would represent a nearly 80% plunge from November's all-time high at 69,000. I regard the target as likely to be achieved, given the way sellers sliced through p=31,434 last week. The secondary pivot at 23,092 can be bottom-fished nonetheless, provided you've made money on the way down and know how to limit risk.

We've had four months to observe and analyze the bear market that began a single tick off January 4's record high. What might be said about it so far?  Mainly that it has been far kinder and gentler than we should expect. Realize that the biggest financial bubble in U.S. history has popped. Although this is becoming increasingly obvious, you can be certain investors are waiting to jump back in at the subtlest sign of a bottom. Their brokers and financial advisors will be the first to spot this bottom, along with a dozen more as the broad averages work their way toward the deepest bottom imaginable In the meantime, the little guys reportedly have been shifting their capital into money market funds, although not at a pace that has spiked redemptions at Vanguard, Black Rock, State Street and a few other biggies that for 13 years made the bull market seem unstoppable. At some point the Leviathans will necessarily turn seller as their customers dive out of shares. It is impossible to say when this climactic phase of the bear market will begin or how long it will take to run its course. Much sooner than we might expect, and with blitzkrieg speed, are two possibilities for which we must be prepared. What is certain in any event is that when Vanguard, Berkshire, Fidelity, Black Rock et al. are forced to dump their crown jewel AAPL, the little guys will not be stepping in to support it at $100, or $80, or $60, or even $20. In the extremely unlikely event they are in a buying mood as the Mother of All Dips seeks a bottom, their ammo will be gone, deflated into hyperspace by ruinous asset deflation. The Lomcevak More immediately, however, we should view last week's sharp

With long-term rates closing like a missile on my 3.24% target for the U.S. Ten-Year Note, I was compelled to double-check my math. The chart not only confirms the validity of the target, it offers a bigger-picture perspective on an ABCD pattern that is as gnarly as it is compelling. I'd previously used a daily chart to project an identical target, but the fact that the same persuasive, rules-based elements are present on the weekly chart makes 3.24% the number to watch. It is not short-able with the usual precision because its stopping power will be conflated with that of a top made in the same place in October 2018.  I have more to say about this in this week's Morning Line commentary, so check it out if your curious about what a top in Treasury rates could mean for the U.S. economy. _______ UPDATE (May 24, 10:14 p.m. EDT): A slight breach of the 2.72% low recorded on April 26 corresponds to TLT's inverse poke above a small 'external' peak recorded around the same time. Have interests rate seen their high? It's possible, but the evidence is not yet decisive. It would imply that the recession that began months ago -- the one Goldman's resident genius said a few weeks ago had a 15% chance of occurring within the next 12 months -- is beginning to deepen.  Here's the chart. 

The chart shows the tortured psyche of a bear market in its infancy. There have been no particularly memorable downdrafts yet, just a paltry three-percenter in the Dow last week that was overshadowed by an even more-deserved sell-off in the lunatic sector.  There is only discouragement and anxiety at this point, but no real fear. And why should there be? If Thursday's psychotic, Fed-induced short-squeeze had continued for just one more day, it would have brought the S&Ps to within betting distance of new record highs (!). As things stand, it scared the bejeezus out of traders who'd grown too comfortable shorting into every rally that occurred in April. For trading purposes, continue to use the 3994.75 target as a logical place for a tradeable low. It has grown too well exposed by now to work precisely for bottom-fishing, but price action there will at least give us a firm handle on the downtrend's strength at this very early stage of the bear. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 5:26 p.m. EDT): The futures dove to the 3994.75 target this morning, then spent the rest of the day screwing around with it. The close was beneath this Hidden Pivot support, however, following a 3970 low that represented more than just a slight breach. Accordingly, I've shifted point 'A' up to the marquee high to produce a still lower target at 3921.75. That will be the end of the line for the bear cycle begun from 4800 on January 4, so look for a long, sustained bounce after 3921.75 is touched or very closely approached. (The bounce may already have begun, but I doubt it. )  D=3921.75 can be bottom-fished with a 'camo' set-up, since it is extremely unlikely to be significantly exceeded the first time it's hit. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (May

My apologies for putting out a gold tout Sunday night so confusing that it confused even me. It were as though aliens had beamed signals into my head when I composed and published it. The 1825,8 target we've been using all along is still a 'definite', and it would be a load-up-the-truck-price were it not for the fact that I have been drum-rolling this number for the last several weeks. We can still make use of it when the time comes, so tune to the trading room when the futures get within $7-$10 of it. ______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:33 p.m. EDT): Today's nitwit-powered conniptions push the June contract moderately higher but failed to surpass any 'external peaks even on the hourly chart. This is disappointing, considering the rally came off a longstanding, very important Hidden Pivot target at 1825.80.  Perhaps it was too well advertised and must suffer a relapse before gold can bottom?  Regardless, an important low appears all but certain to occur somewhere very near here because the target is so clear and compelling. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 9:55 p.m.): The futures crashed the 1825.80 'hidden' support, so I've shifted to the 'marquee' point A high, which allows for a bottom at 1814.20. That 'D' target has been exceeded, but only by $5. The jury is still out, but it'll take a print at 1864.80 to get out of immediate jeopardy.

I've left Silver on the list this week only as a placeholder, since its chart says absolutely nothing to me. The corresponding chart in gold is somewhat more bullish, and I've said so.  However, it is not so bullish as to suggest it will pull silver higher any time soon. The July contract would need to push past the 'external' peak at 23.65 made on April 29 to get our attention, but until such time as that happens, expect meaningless feints in both directions as bulls and bears duke it out for control of...not much. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10;05 p.m.); There's a bottom somewhere, although bulls could be pardoned for thinking this time may be the exception. Here's a chart that shows two possibilities, respectively, at 20.27, or 19.24 if any lower.