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First, let me titillate all of you die-hard permabears with a ray of hope:  A potentially important top may have formed last week in, respectively, the E-Mini S&Ps and in IWM, a proxy for the Russell 2000. The former stalled inches from a 'Hidden Pivot' resistance at 4222.82, while the latter turned down precisely on schedule after tracing out the right shoulder of a nasty-looking head-and-shoulders pattern. I must caution you against making too much of this, however, since the stock market since 2009 has blasted free of a dozen similarly daunting predicaments, even achieving enormous gains during an economically devastating pandemic. Still, one can always hope that the time for a long overdue and presumably healthful correction has finally arrived. Just one additional note of caution: If stocks bull-doze their way higher next week, the S&Ps should be presumed headed to at least 4536, a level that would equate to a 3000-point Dow rally. Now on to something with more impact on our day-to-day lives: auto-warranty scams. This plague interrupts tens of million of us each day with robotic phone calls offering worthless car-service agreements. All of us have received scores if not hundreds of these nuisance calls over the years, sometimes two or three of them in a single day. Supposedly, if you follow the voice prompts, you can purchase an extended auto-service policy for $3,000 that will turn out to be useless when it comes time to file a claim. Big Money Despite this, the scam is obviously making some crooks a lot of money, since the calls -- billions of them -- just keep coming and coming and coming. Mine come mostly from spoofed Colorado numbers (where I lived for 20 years) and hit in the late afternoon or early evening. Although I use a call-blocker

I've identified bull market targets as high as 4905.75, but let's use the pattern shown for now, with a less ambitious objective at 4536.50, since the futures are a millimeter from a related, and potentially crucial, benchmark. They traded as high as 4187 on Friday, just 13 points from the secondary Hidden Pivot at 4200.44 shown in the chart.  We shouldn't be surprised to see a tradeable pullback from it, but if buyers blow past or close above it for two straight days, that would put the 4536.50 target well in play. There is one other 'hidden' obstacle noted here earlier: 4222.82, the p2 pivot of the pattern associated with D=4905.75, but we'll ignore it for now to keep things simple.  It may be possible to get short with risk tightly controlled on Monday or Tuesday using a small-degree 'reverse' ABC set-up, but let's play it by ear. Chat-roomers, stay tuned!  _______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:13 p.m. ET): Failures precisely at the secondary pivot are especially concerning, so we'll be watching 4200.44 closely. Today's microscopic poke above the line was not enough for us to draw any conclusions, but bulls will need to power decisively above the line to  avoid the suspicion of fatal weakness.

Headline writers hyperventilated last week over the prospect of higher capital gains taxes while the stock market took it in stride. Biden wants to double the levy on long-term investments to 39.6%, ending a felicitous run at 20% that was enacted 40 years ago under President Reagan. The Wealthy Will Fight Him to the Death, proclaimed a teaser above a Los Angeles Times column. And Bloomberg.com hoisted this 'Mayday!' above the fold: Rich Americans Face Biden Tax with Anger, Denial and Grief'. They'll get over it, as we well know; they always have. And what is the secret of their Zen forbearance? It is this: Make so much money that even after giving half of it to the revenuers, there will be plenty left to summer in the Hamptons and charter Mediterranean yachts without feeling pinched. And now more than ever, there is consolation in knowing that whatever sums The Government's left hand taketh pales in comparison to what the right hand giveth -- namely, 'stimulus' that all but promises to inflate asset values to infinity. In the unlikely event it is enacted, Biden's proposal would put well-heeled investors in high-tax states like New York and California over the 50% threshold for total taxes paid. The well-to-do have been fleeing to low-tax jurisdictions such as Nevada, Florida and Texas anyway, but a tax hike would undoubtedly hasten the exodus, even of rich Biden backers who disingenuously claim to love Big Government wholeheartedly. In the meantime, although year-end tax selling could increase if talk of a tax hike grows serious, it seems unlikely to faze a bullish herd that has stampeded through a global pandemic and 20% unemployment. Bitcoin No Tax Haven Dramatic headlines aside, the stock market shrugged off the news much as it has been doing ever since the

Although bitcoin got savaged Sunday morning when it opened more than $11,000 beneath Friday's close, the plunge would not have stopped out a long position acquired 'mechanically' at p=$57,676, the red line. I had not recommended the trade explicitly, but I am mentioning it now to buttress your awareness of how powerful upthrusts such as we have seen in bitcoin tend to produce 'mechanical' buy signals that are profitable. Realize as well that 'dynamic' moves invariably beget violent counterswings such as Sunday's. In any event, the 72,230 target of the pattern shown remains viable, as does possible resistance at 66,680, the 'D' target of another pattern.  A relapse is possible as well, and that's why I'll suggest partial-profit-taking when possible if you did the trade on your own initiative. A second buy signal would be triggered if the relapse were to touch the green line at 50,400. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:26 p.m. ET): There's no question that a pullback to the green line (50,400) would trigger a quite enticing 'mechanical' buy, especially since no set-up of this magnitude has failed to produce a profit. The trade is certain to be telling if it triggers, and if it works, my gut feeling is that the turn will have come not at the green line, but from around 48,804, a 'd' pivot culled from the decline since last week's record high at 64,858.  I will create a tracking position in any case, but my advice is to paper-trade this one unless you have made far more on bitcoin than the nearly $30k you'd be risking on four lots. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:02 p.m.): What a thrashing bulls and bears are getting! That's why I will continue to focus on the bigger picture, as above, tuning out the noise. _______ UPDATE

June Gold cleared a key hurdle on Friday by an inch, triggering a theoretical buy signal tied to a 2083.90 target. First things first, however, meaning we should set our sights no higher than p=1880.10 for the time being. This midpoint Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for a climb that would take about 2-3 weeks, assuming the bullishness evident in Silver is present. Even though the rally has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, this is the most bullish price action we've seen in gold since last summer. A longer-term chart allows for a projection of 2286, (A=681 in October, 2008), but it would take two weekly closes above 1976 to warrant getting excited about it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:45 p.m. ET): Bulls got sandbagged in the early going, generating an impulsive decline that projects to as low as 1752.90 over the near-term.  You can bottom-fish there with a 'reverse ABC' pattern using this chart's 'b'as your point 'A' for the reversal.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:41 p.m.): The correction never even got close to the secondary pivot at 1758.90, let alone the 'd' target $6 below it. This is bullish price action, and it projects most immediately to 1792.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:20 p.m.): June Gold closed above the green line (1778.10), putting a midpoint resistance at 1880.10 in play (see inset) as  minimum upside objective for the near-to-intermediate -erm.

Bitcoin mania hit an air pocket on Sunday with a so-far $11,500 plunge from last week's record-high $64,858. Groping for an explanation, Bloomberg and other mainstream sources attributed the drop to speculation that the U.S. Treasury might crack down on digital-money laundering. Yeah, sure. This tired story has been marking time for a decade, ever since the days when only a few hardcore gamers knew about blockchain money. Now it is being reheated and served up as a convenient explanation for bitcoin's nuttiness, much as stories about "tariff fears" and "vaccine hopes"' were trotted out each and every time mass psychosis seized traders. Crypto fans had better get used to the crackdown story. Recall that it took almost two years for the news media's tariff-war allegory to die a natural death. This occurred when the "war" itself became too convoluted for the supposed experts to explain. Eventually, and mercifully, they came to realize that they were only embarrassing themselves when they tried.  Now financial writers have trained their wellspring of ignorance on the latest tabloid story involving markets -- the epic mania in cryptocurrency. While this may be a welcome respite from sensationalist blather about how Reddit kids were crushing the hedge funds, it hardly serves to explain bitcoin's rabid swings. So let me try, even though the simple explanation is voodoo stuff that will never surface on Bloomberg or Jim Cramer's vaudeville show. 'Hidden Pivots' Rule! First understand there is no rational explanation for the day-to-day histrionics of deranged markets. The overarching mania is not hard to understand. It exists, and intensifies until climax, because speculators increasingly become convinced they can get rich quickly and with little actual work.  However, short-term whoops, dives and spasms can be explained and even predicted only by using charts.  Thus can we assume

I am temporarily adding the Dow Industrials to my list of touts in order to show bull market targets at 34,355 and 37,093 that correspond to the ones I've flagged in the June E-Mini S&P. They are closely comparable, reflecting potential thrusts of either 1.6% of 9.7%, depending on whether p2 or D, if either, stops the bullish stampede.  The respective targets for the E-Mini S&P lie 2% and 10% above, implying that a last-gasp rally could show slight relative strength compared to the Dow.  I should mention that the DJIA chart is much less compelling than the E-Mini's, since it uses a 'marquee' low rather than a one-off, and because the point 'B' high has conspicuously failed to exceed the record high notched in March 2020. Because of these flaws, I would not ordinarily pay much attention to the Dow chart, let alone use it to trade or project a top. However, because it aligns so closely with the textbook-perfect chart of E-Minis, it is at least worth pondering, and perhaps using to get short at p2 or D with tight stops. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:47 p.m. ET): Two days of weakness is unusual, but a third on Wednesday would be concerning. Even if so, it is grotesquely overdue. _______ UPDATE (Apr 22, 10:20 p.m.): A rally target at 34,549 corresponds to the one at 345.33 given in my latest DIA update. Either is short-able with the tightest stop-loss you can abide, or via an rABC set-up with a very small a-b leg.

Last week's moderate uptrend has improved the look of the 'reverse' pattern given here earlier -- so much so that it promises to be a money-maker for months to come. That implies that May Silver has a good chance of reaching the 29.00 target, but even if not, 'mechanical' trades from x, p or even p2 will benefit from the clarity of this picture. D=29.00 is now in play theoretically, but we'll use p=26.37 as a minimum upside objective for now. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I'll provide intraday guidance to squeeze off a low-risk trade intraday. Otherwise, Pivoteers are encouraged to dive in at will, using 'reverse ABC set-ups and 'mechanical' triggers on the lesser charts to squash entry risk. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:32 p.m. ET): See my 13:28 post in the chat room, which in response to a question belatedly offered up this rABC set-up as the sort of opportunity we should look for to test the water with very tightly controlled entry risk.

Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target.  For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.