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The bearish pattern shown, with a 10,445 target, looks quite serviceable and should have worked perfectly. The trouble is, after tripping a theoretical sell signal at 11,413 way back on on September 6, the futures have spent three weeks avoiding the target as though it were a tar pit. It remains valid nonetheless and should work nicely as a back-up-the-truck support for bottom-fishing if hit on Monday.  I should also mention that virtually every 'mechanical' short signaled on this chart since Sep 9 would have produced a profit of around $6500 per contract, albeit it with commensurate risk. The next 'mechanical' short would be signaled on a run-up to x=11,413, but this would be, not sloppy seconds, but sloppy thirds, and so I am not recommending the trade.  The many failed attempts to go lower would seem to argue for a bullish bias, and that is indeed where we will point when the new week begins -- on the lesser charts, perforce, since the larger ones all say NQ is still a sale. ______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 6:33 pm. ET): The very sloppy price action of the last three weeks has not yet invalidated the bearish target at 10,445, but we will pass up this foul-smelling temptation to get short nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:20 p.m.): The rally feels unstoppable, doesn't it? If this one's going to fail, the logical place for it to happen would be just above C=11,735 (see inset). We'll be waiting with a small-interval rABC pattern to get short with a penny-ante stop-loss..

The chart, with an imaginary rally line extending into the cosmos, is of course facetious, but you get my point: nothing can hold this beast back for long.  It continues to benefit from freaked-out bears who understandably lack the guts to stand their ground ahead of weekends.  On Friday, they drove the futures up to a level just shy of the point 'C' high of a bearish ABC pattern that served us reasonably well last week. The rally was stronger than in the Dow or the S&Ps, and it would seem to imply that stocks will open with a lurch higher as the new week begins. If DaBoyz are in full command, look for the Cubes to push above  the 286.66 'external' peak notched on 9/4.  I will be looking to get short nonetheless around 276.40, albeit with risk very tightly controlled. It is a low-odds trade that I am not recommending unless you know how to fashion an rABC stop-loss risking perhaps 8-12 cents. The 252.83 target is still theoretically viable but no longer a great bet. ______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 7:07 p.m. ET): The opening felt too squirrelly to short, so I took no position; nor did I end the day with a strong bias._______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:35 p.m.): The Cubes are stealing up on an important resistance, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 286.20.  If they fist-pump past it or close decisively above it, that would hold very bullish implications for next week. Let's see whether buyers can harness Freaky Friday for this heroic task.

What came to be known as the South Sea Bubble was so pumped up before it popped in 1720 that investors apparently viewed nearly every opportunity as a sure thing. The York Building Company, for one.  After being purchased by the Hollow Sword Blade Company, it mutated into a provider of water to London, to a buyer of confiscated Jacobite estates in Scotland, to an insurance company. With this checkered past, the stock still soared from £1oo to £1000 in a single year. The South Sea Bubble itself involved slave trade and rights to conduct business with trading companies in the New World. Rich and poor alike were enticed to pour their savings into such ventures, ostensibly because they believed there was no way to lose. Even Isaac Newton, whose IQ supposedly was around 200, got suckered. He made a pile of money and cashed out when the bubble was in its early stages, but he plunged in again just before the bubble burst and lost everything he'd made -- about $20 million in today's dollars. Newton is said to have remarked, woefully, that  "[he could] calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."  How crazed were they? One inventive firm that went public in 1720 famously advertised itself as "a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is." Suffice it to say, enough pigeons went for this pitch to make the company's promoters rich. It is not known whether any of the company's shares were in Newton's portfolio. All the Rage If all of this sounds too stupid to actually have occurred, then you haven't heard about SPACs.  The acronym stands for "special purpose acquisition companies," and they are all the rage these days on Wall

[Apologies, but my WordPress publishing app is so screwed up that updates for Friday may be somewhat limited. RA] Wednesday's quiet opening was a fooler that gave no hint of the ferocious selling that followed. The Dow and the S&Ps opened moderately higher, extending a two-day rally that traders obviously assumed would continue. Instead, the broad averages rolled over in the first hour on light selling that picked up tempo as the day wore on. This is dangerous price action, considering that the stock market is headed toward a Friday late in September. It suggests that the next leg down, starting by week's end or possibly Sunday night, will come only after bears have suffered at least a day of ratcheting pain. For their part, bulls are unlikely to turn ebullient, just complacent. Watch for the news to cooperate, offering a sordid mixture of headlines from the global police-blotter.

Today's modest pop exceeded two more external peaks on the daily chart, bringing the total to three -- all by a rally that has yet to correct. This implies a powerful impulse leg in the making -- one that could soon dispel any doubts about the importance of the September 1 low at 91.71. If this is in fact the  start of a major bull move in the dollar, all of the trends that have been in motion since the bombed-out March 23 low are going to reverse:  Shares, including the FAANGs, will fall, the precious metals will turn weak and T-Bonds will get new respect as a safe haven.  None of this will necessarily happen overnight, but as the implications of the dollar's strength become more apparent, that will turn the tide. Debtors are headed for trouble, and the effects of Fed stimulus are about to go deader than Kelso's testicles. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 9:23 p.m. ET): This week's surge has exceeded two prior peaks on the daily chart, two of them 'external', without taking a breather. Now, if the rally punches through D=94.61 with little effort, that would further strengthen the argument that we are witnessing the beginning of a major move. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 9:47 p.m.):  Thursday's rally to within two cents of the 94.61 target I'd drum-rolled has the entire world on edge.  Exciting though this may be, it does not call for speculation; we'll let price action over the next day or two speak for itself.

[QQQ] The chart shows two Hidden Pivot 'D' supports, either of which is capable of generating a tradeable bottom.  Subscribers reported success using SQQQ, an ultrashort ETF, to play the move. The downside targets lie, respectively, at 260.69 and 258.42. However, sliding 'A' up to the marquee high at 303.50 recorded on Sep 2 would produce a downside target as low as 243.85. Friday's bounce precisely from p=262.15 of that pattern has validated this target and the pattern associated with it while also providing a rationale for bottom-fishing at 243.85 with a very tight stop loss. ______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 8:42 p.m.): Subscribers reported making hay with the 260.60 target, which caught the low of a nearly 7-point plunge within 58 cents. The bounce is strongly impulsive, but I expect it to fade well shy of last week's peaks near 280.00 In any event, we'll repair to the sidelines for now.

[DIA] Bears turned chicken Friday afternoon, scrambling needlessly to cover shorts ahead of a weekend that was unlikely to produce 'good' news. Now, a rally to p=278.76 would trip a weak 'mechanical' short, stop 280.59. I'd suggest paper-trading this one unless you've caught a profitable ride up to 278,76. The trade should be executed with a rABC set-up on the 15-minute chart (or less). As always, if the eventual, expected fall to D=273.29 exceeds the target, especially on a closing basis, that would warn of more weakness to come. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 8:49 p.m. ET): Sellers are probably done for now, having achieved the 'D' target of a three-week-old pattern almost exactly. It is calculated using the highest possible 'A' on the chart; my original target used a secondary high recorded on Sep 3 and was relatively conservative. Here's the chart. _____ UPDATE (Sep 22, 5:16 p.m.): This pattern, with a 274.68 rally target, can serve for trading purposes, implying a 'mechanical' long from x=271.01, or a short from D=274.68 for those who have enjoyed the ride up. Please note that a gap opening in the morning -- something that occurs regularly in this vehicle -- could negate the pattern or at least diminish its usefulness.

There was not a mask in sight Saturday afternoon on the Ocean City NJ boardwalk even though it was packed with strollers, including your editor. Although it's not possible to tell from the picture which are political liberals and which are conservatives, it's probably safe to say that voters of both persuasions were well represented in the dense throng. The beaches and boardwalks in South Jersey and elsewhere are among the relatively few places where no one seems to give a damn about Covid-19. In such locales, the disease seems as powerless as the Wicked Witch of the East in Munchkinville. We know this because nearly everyone in America would be infected by now if it were otherwise. What about indoor spaces?  Popular wisdom has it that if you share a poorly ventilated room with someone who has the disease, and you breathe the same air for an hour or two, you are likely to become contaminated yourself (although not necessarily symptomatic). However, there is at least one bar in nearby Margate, NJ, where drinkers often stand two or three deep because all of the stools are taken. Three-way conversations are happening with faces separated not by the state-mandated six feet, but by 10-15 inches. On a recent weekend when I had dinner there -- outside -- the bar resembled a scene from a Heironymous Bosch painting, where earthly pleasures are celebrated with wicked abandon. If they turn out to be superspreaders, we should know by Halloween. Pancake Risk I had a mask-less breakfast Saturday morning with two friends, both physicians, in a restaurant that is famous for blueberry pancakes and which has been doing brisk business since 1946. The place has barely missed a beat during New Jersey's lockdown.  One of these friends has treated dozens of Covid-19 patients,

As observed here earlier, nearly everything has begun moving in lockstep opposite the dollar. Today, the effect of a modest bullish upturn in the dollar was both precipitous and precise. A strong dollar is the worst nightmare not only of the thimble-riggers at the Federal Reserve, but of everyone who owes dollars. That includes even mortgage borrowers who are financing at the lowest rates in history; for even a 2% mortgage can become a crushing burden when home prices are  falling by 10% a year. That prospect is no less likely now than it was just before the financial collapse of 2007-08, when the average home in the U.S. lost about a third of its value. The good news for inflationistas, at least for the time being, is that the dollar does not appear poised for a major run-up. Although it bounced from a multiyear trendline a couple of weeks ago, the initial thrust from a technical standpoint has been less than impressive.  Although the greenback could continue to strengthen, putting pressure on stocks, bonds, crude oil and bullion, prayer may suffice to mitigate the effect over the near term. However, if a thrust erupts like the one shown in the chart, surpassing the three numbered peaks, stock market bulls had better prepare for a bumpy ride. ______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 10:44 pm ET): Bears went all weanie Thursday afternoon, allowing the crazed mob to claw back most of a 60-point loss racked up in the early going.  The stench of distribution is so strong, however, that it seems likely stocks will be trading lower by next mid-week, if not sooner.