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The S&P mini-futures topped three ticks from an important rally target on Monday while the Dow missed a corresponding target by less than two hundredths of a percent. Is this the Mother of All Tops? Probably not, if for no other reason that we cannot expect to nail the top of a bull market that has been making record highs for more than a decade --especially when we are fixated on a price target that has been drum-rolled here for weeks.  Even so, those who shorted the E-Mini S&Ps at their intraday high reaped instant gains and could roll up even bigger profits if the high is not breached on Tuesday. My hunch is that it will be, but that significantly higher prices over the near term are unlikely in any event until after stocks have had a painful correction. It is not merely because important Hidden Pivot targets have been reached, but also long-term trendlines that stretch back years. Together they offer resistance that seems unlikely to give way easily, even if bulls marginally penetrate them over the next few days. If I am wrong and buyers blow past these impediments as though they did not exist, you can infer that the Dow is on its way to at least 30,000, a seven percent gain from current levels and what is sure to be fist-pumped on Wall Street as a milestone.

The futures topped three ticks from a Hidden Pivot target I'd been drum-rolling here for nearly two weeks. 'Drum-rolling' would be an understatement, actually, since it was more like a public relations campaign to drive subscribers' attention to a trade that promised to effortlessly produce a low-risk winner. And so it did, even if only one subscribers -- 'Bachus' in the chat room -- reported taking action. Bachus has a very impressive track record -- not only for turning my price targets into quick cash, but for doing so with enough street smarts and brio to improve on what I've advised. Also, he often shares winning trades in a timely manner that would allow anyone in the room to follow his lead. In this case, Bachus used a corrective ABC pattern of his own to exit the position, covering the short (or at least a portion of it) exactly 1.00 point off the intraday low. Nice shootin', dude! The trade was worth $800, and it was as close to a sure thing as any you will find on the daily list of touts. If you did the trade, please do mention it in the chat room. I've marked it as "Open" for purposes of establishing a tracking position -- that's what that little plus sign (+) next to the symbol ESZ19 means -- but if no one else actually did the trade, it will be removed. If you passed it up in hopes of shorting my DIA target with put options, you're on your own, since no one in the Trading Room expressed any interest in the symbol. Despite today's bullseye, the question remains as to whether the 3128.50 target caught a major top. This was a logical place for one to occur, and that's why anyone who got short

The stock's bounce from a 1447.50 correction target hit on Wednesday could have produced a gain of as much as $1000 per contract for subscribers who traded it. Those who leveraged the target appeared to have taken profits near the 1467.40 threshold where I'd said the rally would become a better bet. And so it has, mainly because the rally exceeded 1467.40 by two ticks, generating a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts. However, the futures have made no more headway, so we'll have to wait and see what the new day brings.  The chart shows at a glance why pulls are not yet out of the woods with respect to the 1425.00 downside target. It will remain theoretically viable in any case as long as 1525.80 is not exceeded to the upside. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 7:49 p.m.): A timid, three-day rally has generated some minor impulse legs, but the burden of proof remains on bulls for now. The 1425.00 downside target is still a good bet to be reached, but odds would lengthen if buyers can push the futures above the 1491.10 peak shown here.

The glue-sniffers are loosely in command, driving AAPL toward a 283.97 target that has kept us from getting too bearish on the stock market.  We've used the target as a lodestone, confident that AAPL would eventually get there. And it will, perhaps sooner than we might have imagine ind after its canny handlers let it fall nearly 40% a year ago, temporarily crushing expectations .  There  were a dozen good reasons to dump the stock at the time, or so it seemed.  Apple's move into streaming content, for one. The  sector is getting very crowded, and Netflix may have upped the ante for creative talent to a level where even they won't be able to turn a profit. There are other factors working against Apple as well. The iPhone replacement cycle has lengthened because there have been fewer revolutionary changes from one model to the next. Also, competitors such as Huawei are offering comparable smartphones at significantly lower prices. Despite these negatives and many others, the stock looks hellbent on 283.97, at least.  The target is very likely to produce a tradeable pullback, which would imply that the broad averages will be falling in sympathy. For now, to leverage what remains of the uptrend, and to cushion our risk when we get short, I'll recommend buying the Dec 13/Nov 22 285 calendar spread eight times for 0.50, contingent on the stock trading 264.00 or higher, day order. If you buy it, plan on rolling the spread each Friday by covering the short calls and shorting new ones tied to the next week's expiration. If the stock continues to rise on each successive Friday between now and December 6, we will ultimately be able to take in more in premium than we have paid for the long Dec 13 calls that

Shhhh. I've refrained from drum-rolling the 1447.50 correction target (see  inset) because it looks so likely to produce a precisely tradeable bounce. I didn't want to queer the opportunity by giving it too much attention, but now you won't have to worry about bumping heads with the riff-raff. Friday's weak rally did nothing to change the odds that the futures will get there, but how far and how long the bounce goes is unknowable at the moment. The chart appeared here last week, but I didn't explain why the pattern is so enticing. Mainly, it is a matter of the A-B impulse leg exceeding a true external low at 1488.90. This set-up is textbook-perfect, and subtly so, and that's why it behooves us to make the most of it. _____ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:15): My forecast caught the intraday low within $1.40, but also the tradeable bottom of a so-far $10 bounce. Only two subscribers mentioned this, so I have not established a tracking position.  If you would like me to continue following gold futures, please say so in the room so that I am able to gauge interest in them. ______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 7:48 p.m.): Subscribers were able to re-use the 1447.50 target to bottom-fish for a second straight day. Monday's gambit yielded a theoretical, four-contract gain of slightly more than $3000; today's could have netted as much as $5000.  Check posts in the trading room between 10 and 2 if you're skeptical these trades worked for-real. The rally was continuing Monday night, but it would need to surpass  1467.40 to imply it's about to get legs. Subs should have cashed out half of the position by now in any case, with the remainder tied to a wide 'impulsive stop-loss' on the 15-minute chart. At the moment, that

Although some notable long-term bond bulls are close to throwing in the towel as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, the chart suggests the bull market begun nearly 40 years ago still has farther to go.  Yields on the long bond settled Friday at 2.41%, up from 1.90% in August, while T-Notes have gone from 1.43% to 1.93% over the same time. The rallies have been impressive if not to say scary, since they have subjected hundreds of trillions of dollars of borrowings to a deflationary turn of the screw. The burden of debt promises to lighten before it becomes fatal , however, when the uptrend in interest rates reverses. Is This a Good Thing? Hidden Pivot analysis says relief could come soon, with the 10-Year topping at 1.984% and the 30-Year at 2.477%. How far might they fall thereafter?  My forecast calls for major lows at, respectively, 0.84% and 1.64%. This implies that the negative-rate weirdness of Europe will not afflict U.S. debt. Is this a good thing? Don't ask the 'experts', because they don't understand negative yields any better than the news media hacks who write about it.  Sub-zero yields reflect the central banks' increasingly desperate efforts since the 1990-91 recession to avoid a catastrophic deflation. Predicting they will fail is not exactly rocket science, even if not one observer in a hundred expects this.

So when is Mr. Market going to wipe the stupid grin from bulls' faces? Soon, would be my guess. Check out the trendline in the chart. A pisher it ain't. It connects the peaks of two major rallies and goes back more than seven months. And here are two more trendlines that are arguably even more daunting.  The first shows the New York Composite Index (NYA) and comes from Peter Eliades.  It first appeared here more than a month ago. The second shows the Industrial Average. If these trendlines fail to stop the bullish wilding spree dead in its tracks, then technical analysis is just toad entrails and tea leaves. All three resistance points lie not far above current levels, implying that the manic rally in U.S. stocks could continue into next week. 'Freaky Friday' is not usually a reversal day, so we should brace for more of the same, at least for now. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:19 p.m.): DJIA popped through its respective trendline like it wasn't there, hitting a high nearly 200 points above it before settling at the midpoint of the day's range. This is quite impressive, and there is no denying it is very bullish. Let's see how NYA and the E-Mini S&Ps (see below) do.

As predicted, AMZN easily recouped losses incurred during last week's shakedown on earnings news. DaBoyz used the dog-bites-man story of the month -- Same-Day Deliveries Crimp Profits! -- as an opportunity to steal shares from widows and pensioners at fire-sale prices. The trampoline bounce that ensued has tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line (1773.79) and put p2=1862.52 in play as a minimum upside objective for the near term.  The target looks like it's in-the-bag, but call options are too juiced to offer much edge. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5;35 p.m. EST): A so-far mellow correction off Monday's 1815 high looks bound for p=1796.88, or 1787.25 if any lower  (60-minute, a= 1813.25 on 11/5 at 6:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 11:04 p.m.): The selloff reversed from 1788.58, just $1.33 from the correction target given above. The first rally resistance lies at 1803.45 (5-min, A= 1785.52 on 11/1 at 3:05 p.m.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 8:46 a.m.): DaBoyz gapped AMZN past p=1803.45 on zero volume at 5:00 a.m. Nice work, guys. This means D=1818.12 is, like, 99% likely to be reached, probably sooner rather than later. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:28 p.m.): If AMZN continues to fall, you can use this 1754.35 target to bottom-fish._______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 8:08 p.m.): This morning's feint higher turned the hourly chart bullish, but not very. Look for more upside now to 1781.32, or to 1790.73 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13): The stock has gotten boring and no one has mentioned it in the chat room, so I'll be removing it from the home page for a spell.

We gutted it out last week to stay long through a swoon that left GDX little changed from a week earlier. The partial profit we took on half the position gives us 200 shares with an adjusted cost basis of 26.77. Friday's punk performance lagged physical gold, which was up nearly $5 at one point. GDX never went 'green', but it is not likely sit still if bullion's rally resumes or picks up steam in the week ahead.  In any event, offer 100 shares to close for 28.60, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the position at 26.78. If GDX takes out the 26.18 point 'C' low of the pattern, we'll look to re-enter at the first good opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:54 p.m.): We were stopped out at 26.78 for no loss or gain. GDX has yet to break down as badly as gold futures, although this will come as scant consolation to those who've held a long position in this vehicle. I'll recommend waiting for a washout down to this 25.22 target before buying. We can adjust if GDX reverses without falling that far. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13): I've asked for help crowdsourcing an opportune 'buy' point for this banana slug. If you're keen to trade it, please leave an actionable idea of your own in either of the chat rooms. ______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 7:44 p.m.): Bears' unimpressive struggle to push GDX lower is starting to seem pathetic. This is ostensibly bullish, but I have little enthusiasm for simply taking a flier. If there's good interest in this stock in the chat room, I'll happily contribute to the discussion and vet actionable ideas.  ______ UPDATE (Nov 18): There was just one mention of GDX in the two chat rooms today -- by 'Johnfed', a new subscriber who