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Mr. Market blew a great chance to scare the hell out of everyone on Friday, ending the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the rout that stocks so desperately need. AAPL as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the lofty aspirations of pension fund managers, and that is why, as last week’s commentary suggested, it is not about to go quietly into the night. The stock struggled nonetheless last week to make headway toward a 187.93 target after peaking on Wednesday at a record-high 170.20. It subsequently sold off hard for all of about ten hours, then muddled to the finish line in a way that could have satisfied neither bull nor bear. The rally target, a very major one, remains viable, but we’ll need to monitor the stock closely in case omicron fears threaten to kayo the consumer economy yet again. When the week ended, Fauci and his lackeys in the news media seemed eager, if not to say desperate, for someone to die, or at least be hospitalized for a few days, lest an opportunity be missed to roll out the booster-shot-of-the-month. Alas, press releases from South Africa, omicron’s ground zero, only served to mitigate fears that the latest Covid variant, if it is one, could be the devastating killer that so many politicians and bureaucrats are hoping for. For its part, the stock market continues to feel like it’s in a topping process. However, it takes a little imagination to concoct a scenario in which the practically unlimited quantities of ginned-up money that have powered the bull market could dry up. Consider that companies with tens of billions of real dollars of surplus cash go out and borrow funny money because, apparently, they want to save the good stuff for…exactly what? Certainly

The pattern shown, with a 49,360 downside target that looks very likely to be reached, is gnarly enough that we won't be competing with the world if we use it to trade. That would imply bottom-fishing at 49,360 with a tight stop-loss or a frugal 'camo' set-up; or, getting short on rally to x=57,377.  Other trades going in either direction are possible if you zoom in on the last dozen or so bars, which manifest not one, but two tidy impulse legs. The 89,780 bull-market target is unchanged although of little concern at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 11:02 a.m.): Bertie is getting thwomped Sunday morning after opening on a gap down to a so-far low of 48,000. The pattern shown in the chart has room for one more target at 46,945, so let's see  how it goes. An easy breach of that number would not be an encouraging sign.

Elsewhere on the page, I've compared Friday's dramatic plunge to Japan's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. Thanksgiving Friday was supposed to be a quiet day on Wall Street, but it looked more like the possible start of the bear market we've long expected. The selloff generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart, although it did no damage whatsoever to the weekly. We'll keep that in mind lest permabear hubris dull our judgment in the weeks ahead. It would not be unusual for a major trend change to occur after the trend has fallen shy of an important Hidden Pivot target.  The current trend failure occurred at 4740, a not insignificant 20 points below a 4760 target we'd culled from a pattern tracing back to 2009. There needn't be any guesswork, however; we'll know what's on Mr. Market's mind by paying close attention to corrective patterns on the hourly chart. If they start exceeding their D targets routinely, that would add to the evidence that a major bear has commenced. The same goes for retracement rallies that fail to reach their 'd' targets, particularly if they sputter out at the p 'midpoint' resistance.  On the hourly chart, here's a good place to start, since it shows Friday's close to have occurred bearishly beneath p=4583. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 5:40 p.m.): Omicron is not what is causing stocks to fall, although a nascent bear market might be. If so, expect more carnage, but then a lulu-of-a-bear rally to suck everyone in and exhaust short-covering. The ostensible reason for the rally will be the debunking of  Omicron's supposed threat to humanity. This 'variant' and any vaccine said to cure it are a bad joke, actually, and most of us have grown much too tired of Fauci hokum to believe it, let

The 'not exactly bearish' T-Bond chart featured in last week's commentary was intended to make the point that the usual eggheads, pundits and nearly all forecasters have had bonds figured wrong for quite some time. They should be even more embarrassed and mystified by Friday's spectacular rally, which made the daily chart look still less bearish (while paying off pass-line bettors with a quick, 'mechanically' earned $11,000). The same yo-yos have attempted to cover their tracks with talk about how bonds are moving higher because of a global 'flight to safety'. But where, we should ask, was such talk back in November, when a steep rise in bond prices drew only skepticism from inflationistas? Looking ahead, the 168^15 rally target has been in play theoretically since mid-October, although the difficulties of overcoming p=162^25 have made the attainment of D any time soon less than certain. Whatever happens, the unwinding of overly enthusiastic bets on inflation will continue to lend buoyancy to Treasurys, presumably until a bear market in stocks creates a true flight to the safety of U.S. bonds. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 6:44 p.m. ET): The March contract is headed toward a short-term top at 163^30. Short aggressively there if you've been long for the ride up. Here's the chart.

Gold's squirrelly histrionics have become too tiresome to deserve our close attention, but we can still use the excellent, gnarly pattern shown to exploit any price action that plays to our game. For starters, a fall to p2=1700.80 could be bought 'mechanically', provided you know how to set-up a 'camouflage' trigger that would reduce the nearly $30k of entry risk on four contracts by perhaps 95%. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you care and I will show you how. (Here's the equivalent pattern for Feb Gold, where p2=1702.60 and D=1629.00.) Notice that a 'mechanical' short deep in the 'discomfort zone' a couple of weeks ago would have paid off at the same odds as the buy suggested above. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:18 p.m.): The February contract fell to the red line, generating a $30,000 payoff for anyone who shorted the most recent 'mechanical' signal -- at 1849.40  on 11/10. The 1629.00 target remains valid, but let's see if bears can extend their winning streak with a further fall to p2=1702.60 first. Gold may suck much of the time, but that doesn't make it any easier for bearish bettors to profit.

The dollar came down hard on Friday when the egregiously overrated 'Omicron' variant of Covid-19 seemed to provide hope to dollar bears that the U.S economy would soon reverse course and slip into depression. They might get their wish about the depression, since the price of just about everything has risen to levels where most middle class Americans are starting to throttle back on purchases, especially of cars, houses and appliances that are essential to fueling debt-based 'prosperity'. We would still caution against betting on the buck's demise, since it speared the 96.09 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern shown before getting hit by misguided sellers. Why is the dollar strong everywhere but in the U.S.?  Answer: Because stimulus has targeted Joe Sixpack, not just financial assets and real estate.

Friday felt like a Pearl Harbor attack on Wall Street. Since when did a Thanksgiving Friday fill investors with dread and fear? The day was supposed to have passed quietly, with second-string prop desks locked on a glide path into what remained of the four-day holiday. Instead, the Dow plunged by 900 points, closing near the low of the day after a couple of failed rally attempts while the 'value'-weighted Russell index fell by nearly 4%. One might have inferred the markets were finally rebelling against all of the arrant falsehoods that have pumped them full of unnatural vigor, especially over the last year-and-a-half as the global economy has tottered. Everything was topsy-turvy as the week ended: T-bonds were screaming, the FAANGs so beloved of portfolio managers were getting pulped, and bitcoin, the speculative Porfirio Rubirosa  of this era, was immersed in molten hell. A more than $3,000 decline threatened to become the beginning of a crypto bust. Hold the Bubbly! A few of my colleagues had predicted a major top about where it occurred. Peter Eliades got closest with a magic number for the E-Mini S&Ps that caught the high within a point. My own projection missed by 20 points, or less than half a percentage point -- close enough for an honorable mention. That was until I had a closer look at AAPL's chart. The stock got hit hard, down almost 3%, but there is no escaping the fact that if it were to fall a further 5%, to 146, it would become an even better 'buy', according to the rules of my Hidden Pivot Trading System. Since AAPL more than any other stocks reflects the zeitgeist of portfolio managers, not to mention their greed, hubris and stupidity, we shouldn't be too hasty in assuming that Friday's carnage

Bertie turned and ran $4,300 from within $8 of the $55,652 target where I'd suggested tightly stopped bottom-fishing on Friday, turning this monster into a relatively easy trade.  That should end the correction, the nastiest we've seen since early September but by no means unusual. If the bounce continues, we can use this pattern to trade the little sonofabitch 'mechanically'. My long-term rally target remains 89,780, a Hidden Pivot resistance with the potential to cap bitcoin's amazing run. ______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 5:34 p.m. ET): Bertie is doing its vicious best to make sure as few bulls as possible are onboard for the next big rally.  Even so, p2=55,339 of this pattern looks likely to remain the lower limit of fright-mask feints and fakeouts.

December Gold remains on track for a move to at least 1916.90, the 'reverse' D rally target shown in the inset. Two weeks of tedium have at lest partially consolidated the very robust impulse leg begun on November 3 from 1758. However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of a $30-$50 swoon to alleviate gold's constipation before it heads up to 1916.90. The implied $2000 entry risk of bullishly trading the resulting pattern means we'll need to set it up on charts of lesser degree. You should stay tuned to the chat room, but also keep your email 'Notifications' switched on if you want to keep closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 9:52 p.m.): The December contract fell almost $50, validating my warning, but technically it won't become a swoon until we've see a strong bounce that recoups the loss. In the meantime, a further fall to p=1797.40 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, and so would a hit at x=1737.70. Nudge me in the chat room if you would like me to vet your 'camouflage' entry set-up. _______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 5:48 p.m.): We're in no hurry to get long nor to play hero as gold's predatory masters simulate scary weakness. I still think we'll have our chance down around 1737.70.