The rally's second stage was shaky at the outset in early June, but it now looks as though this T-Bond proxy will reach D=104.41, the minimum upside objective since June 15, when TLT gapped up through a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 102.60. We should play close attention to the way buyers interact with the target, since it could tell us whether the bond rally is likely to get legs. An easy move through 104.41 or two consecutive daily closes above it would be the most bullish sign we've seen since March.
With 'Doc' Copper tiptoeing higher, we should prepare for a possible opportunity to short the July contract 'mechanically' if and when the futures get to the green line (x=4.026). The week ended on a downstroke that would require a last-gasp rally to reach our goal. This is a potential $65,000 winner on four contracts, with commensurate entry risk, so we would want to initiate the trade with a 'camouflage' trigger capable of drastically shrinking the initial exposure. I have no indication that subscribers trade this vehicle, but please let me know in the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Jun 28, 5:56 p.m.): The shorting opportunity is past, since the futures have sold off hard since narrowly missing our offer. The 2.956 downside target noted here earlier remains in play.
August Gold looks bound for a minimum 1903.90, but if that Hidden Pivot support gives way, look for the downtrend to continue to at least 1875.00. (A related p2 support at 1906.40 could also engender a precise, tradeable bounce). Both of those numbers can be bottom-fished with 'reverse' patterns and a theoretical trigger interval of $11. Since that would imply entry risk of more than $4000 on four contracts, you should initiate the trade only via an rABC set-up on the 15-minute chart or less and initial risk held to no more than $200 per contract.
July Silver caught a bounce from the 22.06 secondary Hidden Pivot last week, but that won't save it from a further fall to the 21.205 target shown in the chart (inset). That much is clear from Wednesday's crushing breach of p=22.91. The pattern looks too obvious to deliver a precise bounce, but a tradeable turn from very near the target seems unavoidable. So far, the 'natural' trigger interval on a reverse-pattern entry would be 25 cents, but we'll look for alternative ways to get aboard (i.e., 'camouflage'), since the implied entry risk on four contracts would be around $5,000.
Relentless weakness since mid-April finally triggered the 'mechanical' buy at x=35.58 that we've awaited for a month. Such signals are supposed to come at times when they are unappealing, but in this case the opportunity, such as it is, looks so dim that I'll suggest waiting for lower lows before we attempt an entry. With bearish forecasts for both gold and silver futures in force, and the prospect of a further decline in this vehicle to C=32.25, there is no rush to get aboard.
The Dollar Index rallied just enough last week to trigger a 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=102.80). The trade is predicated on further slippage to at least D=98.71, the target of a bearish pattern measured from November 2022. Just to get on record with this, there is room for even more weakness down to as low as 93.55. That's a Hidden Pivot support derived from a higher point 'A', the 113.15 peak recorded a couple weeks earlier in November 2022.
The September contract has signaled an all but certain rally to the 4576.25 target shown in the chart (see inset). The pattern is unorthodox but meets our all of our criteria for usability. Most immediately, it would enable a compelling 'mechanical' buy following a corrective swoon to p=4396.13 (for which a 4336.00 stop-loss would apply). A deeper retracement to the green line (x=4306.06) would be even more enticing as a place to bottom-fish. One or both of these numbers could conceivably be reached, since, as I've detailed elsewhere on this page, two bellwether stocks look ripe for punitive corrections.
AAPL appears very likely to achieve the 191.73 target shown in the chart (inset), since the stock has spent two weeks above the Hidden Pivot midpoint (p=184.53) after impaling it on June 15 with an opening-bar gap. A swooning retracement to the green line (x=180.92) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy that you should not pass up if you trade the stock. Nudge me in the chat room when appropriate and I may be able to craft a risk-averse trigger for playing the bounce with call options.
What looked like the start of a promising rally in early May turns out to have been just a drum-roll for yet another head-fake. The uptrend was mildly impulsive on the lesser charts at first, but the end result was a 'mechanical' shorting opportunity at the green line (x=104.09). This implies the Dollar Index could fall to D=98.71 before it finds a foothold. This should be at least slightly bullish for bullion, but we've seen that the effect is often so feeble as to be negligible.
Last week's Whoopee Cushion bounce came just in time to rescue the faintly bullish pattern on the rightmost side of the chart (inset). If the subsequent selloff resumes this week, causing TLT to land on the green line (x=101.69) with a thud, that would trigger a moderately attractive 'mechanical' buy. It would not be predicated on a run-up to the 'D target, however, but rather on a one-level ride to p that could produce a small gain with good odds nonetheless, even with call options.
