Using a longer-term chart has somewhat raised my minimum downside target to 99.72 from the 98.71 objective given here earlier. This midpoint Hidden Pivot support warrants close watching, since its failure, especially if decisive, could portend a move in the U.S. dollar from purgatory into the first circle of hell. A fall all the way to the 93.55 target would stoke inflation while giving gold and silver a strong boost. The A-B leg of the pattern is legitimately impulsive, and so we should expect it to give us an excellent read on the forces acting on the dollar.
Distrusting the hubris that accompanied Saudi Arabia's timid cutback on supply has paid off, since crude has relapsed as we might have expected. I've switched to an unambiguously bearish pattern that projects a drop to as low as D=66.86. We'll likely get to enjoy a ride down to at least p=74.89, where price action should tell us how much more weakness might remain. Let's keep our fingers crossed, since the last thing the country needs is gasoline prices pushing above $4 and staying there for a while.
Gold has been leaden for a month, presumably to set up a nasty surprise. But for whom -- bulls, or bears? My hunch is the latter, but we'll keep an open mind just in case. They evidently were fixated on the 2050.60 target shown in the chart and may have been patting themselves on the back when the futures whipped around and shot up to a marginal new high that stopped every last one of them out. We shouldn't underestimate the lingering pain, nor their natural desire to even the score. Look for wicked swings to precede a drop to at least p=1939.10 if there's going to be a consolidation for another big leg up.
Silver will need more rest after topping pennies from an important Hidden Pivot target at 26.20 target that I'd drum-rolled for the May contract. The corrective target at 24.80 shown may prove to be optimistic, but there's no harm in using it analytically, since its ability to contain sellers can tell us how much power is behind the downtrend. It has worked already for initiating a 'mechanical' short at the green line, and it can also be used to bottom-fish. Caution is advised, however, since the 'B' low of the pattern 'sausaged out' when it narrowly failed to impulse beneath the April 6 low at 24.91. ______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 6:00 p.m.): The 24.80 target worked nicely, getting within 7 cents of the low of a so-far 61-cent bounce. It seems likely to continue because the bounce overshot the 'd' target of a minor reverse pattern.
GDXJ has corrected sharply after falling a substantial 1.68 shy of a 45.57 rally target that remains viable. In fact, a further fall to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at p=38.92, would trip a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 36.70. It would be less hazardous to wait for the correction to come down to x=35.59, but that would risk missing the next important upturn. In practice, we'll look to buy at the higher price, but with a 'camouflage' trigger that risks relative pocket change. Stay tuned if you care.
The S&PS have been in a constipated uptrend since around April 5, tacking on just 35 points, or around 0.7%, since regaining their footing after a steep rally begun in late March. The pattern shown projects a move to 4287.25, provided buyers can push this brick decisively above p=4191.88. They seemed content to beat each other's brains in all week, However, especially with Friday's excruciating chop. The week ended with a slight gain on a 'mechanical' buy triggered Thursday at the green line. We'll stick with the pattern shown for trading purposes since it's all we've got at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 5:43 p.m.): Because of today's hard selling, I've switched to a big, bearish reverse pattern with a 3980.00 target, or as low as 3818.00 if the higher number is breached decisively. The second target comes from fully extending the rABC pattern by using the marquee 'A'. If today's weakness is about to snowball, either pattern should work well for analysis or trading, including bottom-fishing at p=4058.50 of the larger pattern. Here's the chart.
Our #1 bellwether spent the week screwing the pooch. Accordingly, I've adjusted our focus downward somewhat from the 176.52 rally target given here earlier. That is the D target of a much larger pattern. The less ambitious price objective is 170.57, and you should be prepared for a possible swoon to x=162.48, since that would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy. In the meantime, if you bought puts at the recent top that I'd signaled, you should cash out 25%-50% of your position. Swinging for the fences with put options hasn't been a very good strategy in 2023. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 10:58 p.m.): The criminally engineered opening bar bottomed at 162.80, a hair above the 162.48 price I'd said would trigger a 'mechanical' buy. Anyone still holding puts? If so, please announce yourself in the chat room.
Bond bulls could have locked up the 115.32 rally target shown in the chart with a small upthrust a couple of weeks ago, but they chickened out. The opportunity to generate a powerful impulse leg with a small move exceeding three closely-spaced peaks will have to wait for another day. Even so, the chart still says 'bullish consolidation' clearly. It is mildly bullish that three feints lower have failed to gift us with a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. When it finally happens, be prepared for the low to occur beneath x=102.99. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 4:07 p.m. EDT): TLT's crash today looks like it still has a little ways to go. Bottom-fishing at D=101.90 with a very tight stop-loss looms as a decent bet. You can substitute call options if you prefer. _______ UPDATE (May 2, 10:45 p.m.): The low occurred below 102.99, all right-- 15 cents below it. That was just before TLT reversed and took off like the bat out of hell depicted in the eponymous Disney animation. Mention having caught the low in the chat room and your name will be entered in drawing for a coat made from genuine snow leopard pelts.
Bitcoin has been perfectly predictable for months, but I may remove it from the core list because my forecasts, which have been sensationally accurate, have attracted almost no discernible interest. I did get an email last week from a subscriber who said he has been enjoying Bertie touts, but apparently he's the only one. I've continued to tout Bertie anyway in hopes of attracting some Robin Hoodies and their ilk; on second thought, however, who needs the little twerps? If you want to keep this symbol on the front page, let me know in the chat room or via email. If I hear from 25 subscribers who support it, it can stay. A voodoo 'buy' is imminent if this big-time hoax can get a 336-point bounce from a voodoo number that's less than 400 points away. But so what, right? _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 8:54 a.m.): Bertie is screaming this morning toward 30,277, using a reverse pattern on the daily chart where a= 27,732 on April 6. Alternative a/d= 27,243/30,766. The way the rally impaled p of either pattern implies there is nearly zero chance that both of these targets will NOT be achieved.
Readers will be pleased to hear that Alissa Heinerscheid, the Anheuser-Busch marketing whiz responsible for featuring Dylan Mulvaney's unwholesome mug on cans of Bud Light, appears to have lost her job. A-B reportedly put Heinerscheid on a leave of absence, replacing her with a senior executive. Since the megabrewer is unlikely to promote Alissa, and because she doesn't appear to be the kind of gal who would accept a permanent career plateau gracefully, it's safe to assume she will soon be seeking work elsewhere. The woman was cursed with a face made for radio, but don't be surprised if she scores a cushy off-camera sinecure at CNN or the White House. We wish her quick and total success as she sinks back into obscurity. The disappointing news is that Anheuser-Busch has yet to apologize for offending the vast majority of its customers by making a flaming fruitcake its spokeswhatever for a quintessentially mainstream brand. Curiously, even in a world that increasingly seems to reward evildoers and pander to woke wackos, BUD shares look poised for an upside breakout. This is despite a reported 10% drop in Bud Light sales. Investors evidently believe the brand will rebound fully, but don't bet on it. A Medically Concerning Chart Concerning the chart above, it shows the E-Mini S&Ps in a day-long series of spasms on Friday that would be medically concerning if the S&Ps were human. But guess what! The S&Ps actually are human insofar as they act to fulfill the conscious and subconscious demands of all market participants at every instant. Moreover, the human thoughts that animate stocks are often so fraught with fear and greed as to produce price swings wild enough to be labeled aberrational or even psychotic. Realize that the swings are a perfect visual analog for the conflicting
