If the rally hits the green line (x=169.59), it would set up a textbook 'mechanical' short, even though the trade might not feel so appealing at the time. It would come with the stock in the throes of a ballistic ascent fueled by increasingly panicky short-covering. Still, the success rate of 'mechanical' shorts at the green line following a dip into the void between p and p2 has been nothing short of remarkable -- perhaps 80% or more. Success in this context means the short once initiated would deliver a gain of at least one full Hidden pivot level. With initial risk of about $2800 on four round lots, I'll suggest using a 'camouflage' set-up to trigger the trade. For real-time guidance, tune in to the chat room if and when the stock gets within 1.00 point of the target. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:40 p.m. EST): If AAPL rallies to the green line, a short there has become less appealing because the stock will have done so following a three-day consolidation above the red line. The trade would still be do-able, but only if you can whittle down risk to a practical minimum with a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room and to 'Notifications' if you seek more-nuanced guidance in real time.
Friday's unrelenting short-squeeze appeared headed to the 4421.50 target of the reverse pattern shown (inset). The run-up from Thursday's low has yielded no interesting buying opportunities, since the pullbacks have been too shallow to bring the futures within the range of a 'mechanical' bid at either p or x. Impulse legs on the hourly chart have not been stellar, however, implying the rally is probably not destined for greatness. Regardless, if the move pops through 'D' with sufficient force, that would increase the likelihood that new record highs are coming. Bears had been slogging painfully lower for nearly three weeks, gaining by inches, but on Friday they were no match for short-covering that seemed hell-bent on stealing it all back in mere days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:50 p.m.): It's not exactly a sign of good health that the March futures have struggled for three days to achieve an easy rally target. Even so, we won't count out the chimps charged with keeping this hoax alive and with making life as difficult as possible for those who would seek to profit from a suspected bear market. Let's move to the sidelines for now.
Bulls might be wondering what they did to deserve such brutal punishment. Why can't gold, which is in a bull market, rise relentlessly like the FAANG stocks have been doing for years? The answer is that gold's bull market is in its adolescence rather than in a hyper-extended blow-off. If it's any consolation, the two day plunge that ended the week failed to wipe out even half of February's strong gains. The correction probably has at least another day or two to run, but I'd suggest using the pattern shown to get a handle on it as the new week begins. You should have noticed that the futures stopped a split-hair shy of a key resistance I'd flagged at 1977.10, demonstrating yet again their propensity to turn at price points so stupidly obvious that experienced traders are scared out of believing they will work. The best way for us to leverage this kind of group-think is to focus on 'counterintuitive' set-ups in particular, since they harness our own fears to make hay with contrarian ideas. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:08 a.m.): Here's the same pattern, but with 'C' adjusted higher. Unless the new 'C' at 1935.20 is exceeded, the pattern should still work well for trading and analytical purposes.
The corrective pattern shown may look too obvious to work well for trading purposes, but it nonetheless has technical perfection going for it: a perky little one-off 'A' high, three single-bar coordinates, and Hidden Pivot levels located smack dab in the Nowheresville of other traders' charts. That implies it will likely work for 'mechanical' shorts, timely trend-strength assessments and precisely located bids against the trend. Most immediately, we will be looking for more slippage to p=23.73, at least. Our trek through the woods over the next week promises to be easy and rewarding, so stay tuned to the chat room if silver is your bag. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:02 a.m.): Here's the new pattern generated by this morning's bull-trap stab higher. It too should work nicely for all purposes. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:59 p.m.): The decisive move through p on first contact implies the odds of a continuation to at least 26.46 are very good. A pullback to x=25.52 would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, but I'd suggest doing so with a 'camo' set-up, since the implied entry risk on four contracts would be around $33,000. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time and I'll be happy to provide more-detailed guidance. [Here's the chart, which I prepared last night but somehow neglected to include.]
The dollar's precise stall at p=93.38 in early April augured a similarly precise one at the 97.54 'D' target of the pattern. This did in fact occur, but the resistance looks like it is about to give way to a renewed surge following a relatively weak correction that lasted just ten days. The picture will become even more bullish if the buying that powered last week's leap takes out the look-to-the-left peak at 97.80 recorded in June 2020, when the dollar's 'Covid' slide was nearing the halfway point. ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 7:45 p.m.): Today's coy peek-a-boo high at 97.83 exceeded the peak I'd flagged by just three cents, but that's enough to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. This is exactly what healthy bull markets do: exceed prior peaks with each new upthrust.
With stocks sharply on the rise last week, bitcoin bears turned unsurprisingly docile. Most bitcoin, a bazillion satoshis' worth, is in the hands of machers who have no plans to sell under any circumstances. That leaves only a relative handful of foolhardy pessimists who seem to think they can turn a profit betting the 'Don't Pass' line in a vehicle completely dominated by strong hands. When conditions are right, such as now, all that's needed for Bertie to soar is for what little supply that is sitting on the books to disappear. In the week ahead, look for an effortless ascent to the 42,558 'D' target, telegraphed by an impaling thrust through p=40,172. ______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 8:14 a.m. EST): Gratuitous chop on Friday altered the pattern, lowering the rally target to 41,982, but it remains bullish. It will still take a decisive push though the new midpoint pivot at 39,509 to clinch an easy ride to 'D'. ______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 8:59 p.m.): We'll spectate for a while as BRTI disembowels doubters. The rally will achieve a minimum 47,191 for certain (60-min, A= 33,044 on 1/24).
The sharp reversal from $100 last week was so predictable that it's hard to take it seriously. Everyone has known that $100 is a psychologically crucial price, implying there is absolutely no way it will cap crude's world-shaking ascent. Enjoy the correction while it lasts, since the new highs that are eventually coming will push gas prices above $6 in California and other places where fuel pretends to be scarce. The 107.63 target given here earlier still obtains, and only a drop below the 87.46 'external' low recorded on 2/18 would hint that it is not necessarily a done deal. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:10 a.m. EST): I can't account for having overlooked the very major, 101.88 rally target shown in this chart, but here it is. A place for caution, to be sure, and to squeeze off a tightly stopped short if you know how. ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 12:17 a.m.): Shorts will have gotten their faces ripped off by today's spectacular bear squeeze, but their pain is the least of civilization's worries. When energy used to power nearly everything on the planet is repriced to take today's massive surge into account, it will turn that which lubricates global economic movement into something like glue. Under the circumstances, the Dow showed chutzpah to have fallen a mere 500 points. Consider it an odd kind of distribution --the best the sleazeballs who manipulate markets professionally could do. But don't expect the relative softness in selling to last much longer once investors get the message. The same bozos have also underreacted to the breathtaking rally in T-Bonds, but it, too, is about to overtake them with dread. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 8:44 a.m.): Speaking of bozos, here's a chart I prepared last night that, if I'd remembered to include it with the update,
Hidden Pivot voodoo nailed El Diablo's most diabolical swings last week almost to-the-tick, allowing subscribers who were tuned to this vehicle to crush it on trades from either side of the market. The week ended with a key support at p=4324.25 holding precisely, so any predictions about what, exactly, will come next would be premature. As always, a decisive breach of p would portend more downside to the 'D' target -- in this case 4062.50, the number we've been using to avoid getting suckered by bear rallies. Meanwhile, we should not fear the inevitable short squeeze unless it pushes this hoax above the 4512.75 'external' peak recorded on February 12. ______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 6:06 p.m.): Even the village idiot could see that all rallies are short sales these days and that they are occurring mostly in the dead of night. This is when the Master of the Universe (a.k.a., DaBoyz) are most easily able to manipulate stocks higher for distribution on extremely thin, short-squeezed volume. Bears should be careful as the selloff approaches the 4190 'secondary' pivot of the large, bearish pattern that projects to 4062.50. Here's another view: the presumably fragile neckline of a big head-and-shoulders formation. _______ UPDATE (Feb 24, 11:17 p.m. ): A dead-cat trampoline bounce rocketed off a low 40 points from D=4062.50. The low occurred about midway between p2 and D, a 'discomfort zone' that is too unreliable to leverage. A run-up to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' short, but only a one-level ride should be attempted; any more would be greedy. Here's the chart.
Perhaps the new week will bring more clarity to a graphical picture of AAPL that is beginning to turn a little murky? The only thing keeping me somewhat bullish at the moment is the incipient reverse-head-and-shoulders shown in the chart. It is a seven-month fetus at this point, however, and only further gestation will reveal how well-formed and healthy the baby is likely to be. A big move down would probably render the pattern stillborn, but it would only benefit bullishly from a big rally. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 5:17 p.m.): The playful little jig that AAPL just did on its midpoint-pivot gravesite suggests it is on its way down to exactly 148.93, the 'D' target of the pattern shown here. First, let's root for a punitive fall to at least p2=155.86. _______ UPDATE (Feb 24, 11:28 p.m.): AAPL's canny handlers impaled shorts with a spectacular bear rally. Like the bounce in the E-Mini S&Ps, this one began about midway between p2 and D, a 'discomfort zone' spot too tricky too rely on. The bounce occurred from where it did because nearly every trader on earth was waiting to buy at the D target of an all-too-obvious pattern.
The April contract is closing on a 1916.40 rally target that has been coming since August, albeit not without far more sturm und drang than gold bugs might have preferred. This is a bull market patiently waiting for a change in the very big picture to make its move. Although the nature of the change is impossible to predict, we can surmise that it will be concurrent with a fraught morning on which portfolio managers awaken with the kind of dread they haven't felt since 2008. In the meantime, we'll closely monitor price action when 'D' is hit, since an easy move past it would imply that bullion may at long last be heating up. ______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 5:30 p.m.); The so-far shallow correction after the futures kissed the 1916.40 target earlier this week suggests they're fixing to go higher. If so, look for the move to be effortless until around 1950, where 'discomfort zone' jeopardy will be at maximum force. It's a scalp-short for those who know how, but that wouldn't diminish the likelihood of a subsequent run-up to 1977.60, where the April contract made an important peak early this year. Here's a fresh chart. _______UPDATE (Feb 24, 9:52 a.m.): Oh my, such a shocking surprise! April Gold ran up to within a split hair of the 1977.60 resistance noted above, then sold off by a whopping $40. We will be in wait-and-see mode for a while, with high-confidence trade set-ups possible only on the lesser charts.
