Rick’s Picks

December Gold's promising mid-week rally died an inch shy of a mid-July's peak at 1839, disappointing bullion fans for the umpteenth time.  The rally was impulsive nonetheless on the hourly chart, and that is why we should view the pullback, sharp as it's been, as merely corrective.  We'll continue to use the 1858.60 target of a middling 'reverse' pattern as a minimum upside objective, but for trading purposes I'll suggest focusing on the bullish pattern begun from Wednesday's 1795.60 low. Stay tuned to the chat room for tradeable details as they develop in real time. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 8:30 a.m. ET):  Gold has taken a stab higher today, slightly exceeding the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a pattern projecting to as high as 1850.10 over the near term. We'll use that Hidden Pivot as a new minimum upside projection, since you can never go far wrong in gold by lowering your sights. Skeptical though we should be, a pullback to the green line (1818.70) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy sufficient appealing to warrant a rating of 7.0. We needn't treat p2=1839.60 as anything special, although a little extra caution there is suggested, assuming it is reached. Here's the latest chart. ______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 10:41 p.m.): The 'mechanical' long from 1818.70 barely survived the wickedest head-fake reversal we've seen in recent memory. All we can do now is stick with our game plan, implying a stop-loss at 1808.1, a single tick beneath today's hellacious low. It should be held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at p=1829.20. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:48 p.m.): The trade stopped out for a $4000 loss. This was the first losing trade using a 'mechanical' signal in as long as I can remember. The Hidden Pivot Method doesn't care how wacky

Ordinarily I would suggest a 'mechanical' short on a rally to the green line (26.19), but there's something so unappealing about this pattern that I'm more inclined to get long, provided we can find a proper set-up to do so.  It's not as though bears have shown much strength or enjoyed much success betting the 'don't pass' line.  The 24.04 'D' downside target will remain theoretically viable nonetheless, but my hunch is that  it will be negated this week with a push above C=26.91.  ______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:52 p.m.): So far, my hunch has been wrong. Still, bears have no real power over Silver other than to bludgeon it do death for a couple of hours at a stretch, so I won't get too exercised yet about the prospect of a full-blown sell-off to D=24.04.  That doesn't mean I am hankering to bottom-fish, however. ______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:34 a.m.): The futures have gotten pounded so hard today that the 24.04 downside target now looks very likely to be hit. Here's a chart for those who enjoy bottom-fishing. I like the odds. 

The Dow Industrials have been screwing the pooch for nearly four months. That's when DIA first popped through a midpoint resistance at 335.00 that is associated with a long-term rally target at 364.31. However, this ETF vehicle has since failed to break decisively above p2=349.65, keeping the outcome in limbo and making DIA a very unappetizing trade, other than for covered writes and similar short-premium option positions. You can see for yourself that the graph provides little reason to think the target won't be reached. Absent a game-changing plunge exceeding mid-June's 333 low, we'll keep this tout on the back burner. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 10:56 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

The September futures on Friday spasmed to within an inch of a 4413.75 rally target that has served as our lodestone since mid-May. This promising Hidden Pivot helped keep our trading bias aligned with the uptrend. It also mitigated hubris whenever we attempted to get short at lesser resistances proffered like canapes by technically oriented subscribers in the chat room. As I noted earlier, there is a question about  how well a target so obvious can work, especially since the algos and droolers seem to have developed an addiction to the same ABCD patterns that had long buttered our bread. On the other hand, the target is sufficiently clear and compelling as to nearly preclude the possibility that the futures will simply blow past it.  Under the circumstances, we will almost certainly see a shorting opportunity very near 'D', but we'll have to discover its precise location and exploit it with risk tightly controlled after things get rolling again Sunday night. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. _____ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:37 p.m.): Several trades were in fact offered up in the Trading room, including an after-hours winner that could have netted you about $850 in an hour. Check it out! ______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:25 p.m.): The futures have been bludgeoned down to 4368.00 this morning after having traded just three points above the 4313.75 target I'd been drum-rolling for weeks. Numerous subscribers reported taking profits on the short trade detailed above, and at least one subscriber remains short a few for a swing at the fences. I still think a major top is in. _____ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:03 p.m.): We've used the 4413.75 to good advantage recently with several bear trades that could have been worth as much as several thousand dollars to those

I'd planned to remove QQQ from the list because of a lack of interest. However, due to last week's unexpected put-butterfly lollapalooza in the chat room, and because of the promise of possible excitement to come, I'll leave the Cubes on the home page for now. You should all have an ample supply of Sep 30 250/270/290 put butterflies purchased for 0.22 or less, and so I will track 16 of them at that price. For the present, do nothing further. QQQ has gotten with five-one-hundredths of a percentage point of the 368.70 rally target I first advertised here some time ago, and it is as promising a place to get short as we've seen in a long while. [Note: As of 7/26, the target has now been achieved with a new record high at 368.89.] I trust that the money you are risking to get short has come entirely come from profits tied to a bullish target whose reliability was never in doubt.  Even so, we shouldn't be shocked if a stock market gripped by fever goes even higher. My hunch is that any rally will not get very far -- just far enough to raise doubts in the minds of other traders, bearishly inclined, who are aware of this pattern and its target. Our $350 bet will at least make whatever happens entertaining to watch -- and not too costly if fever wins out. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 11:10 p.m. ET):  Addled with methamphetamine, the Cubes bored through a granite Hidden Pivot resistance on the opening bar and then spent the rest of the day frolicking just above it.  This is NOT how head fakes/false breakouts occur, so if you've had your fingers crossed that the wack-jobs who have been driving this hoax into outer space were close to

Our focus for quite some time has been on a 363.15 rally target (or possibly 364.31, the 'D' of a larger pattern dating back to November 2020). Ordinarily I don't try to correlate targets of different vehicles, but in this case, charts for DIA and QQQ look so toppy that I can only caution against being too confident about a further rally in the Dow to 'D'. Actually, the current stall has occurred at p2=349.65 of the larger pattern, making it potentially subject to Matt's Curse. Subscriber Matt Barnes' theory holds that stalls, when they occur precisely at p2, produce reaction moves down to 'C' or lower. Here's the bigger pattern showing the stall and the 364.31 target.

A seemingly modest rally target at 1858.60 is still  viable, although the August futures seem in no great hurry to get there.  The 'reverse ABC' pattern shown in the chart would trigger a long if last week's weakness continues down to x=1777.20. However, I have little enthusiasm for gold at the moment and would therefore suggest using the micro-contract if you are uncomfortable with the implied $11,000 of entry risk tied to the full-size contract. At least half the position should be exited if the futures rally from the entry price to the red line (p= 1804.40).  I rate the trade a '6.6' -- worth a try, especially if you can execute it via a much smaller rABC pattern capable of reducing initial risk by perhaps 95%. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 3:31 p.m.): Today's encouraging upthrust has shifted my crosshairs cautiously higher, to the 1912.50 target of this reverse pattern. That's $54 above the old target, and it would become an even-odds bet following a two-day close above 1831,30, or an intraday stab exceeding 1850.

The steep rally that occurred between March 2020 and August created an impulse leg with sufficient power that the likelihood of a second rally leg to as high as 40.085 should not be doubted. However, buyers' digestion pains have rankled us for nearly a year, and there can be no guarantees they will end any time soon.  There is still a presumption nevertheless that the futures will achieve a minimum 30.95 (p) without stopping out the 'c' low of the bullish pattern. In the meantime, the best we can do is stake out a long position on the lesser charts when a good opportunity arises. That would allow us to keep half for a swing at the fences. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:17 p.m. ET): The gnarly pattern shown in this chart predicted the low precisely. But how long will it last? It took the futures six weeks to get there, so the bounce should be more than just an overnighter.  If not, then the next logical step-down would be to 24.04, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished in any of the usual ways, including with a bid and a very tight stop-loss.

The bull ran out of fumes well shy of an important target at 4413.75 last week, perhaps because the ABC pattern with which it is associated was too obvious to too many, even those who know nothing about the Hidden Pivot Method. It's not as though we are the only traders who see and use such patterns. In any event, the anticlimactic rally leaves open the matter of whether the futures have made a major top. My gut feeling is that they haven't, but I am open to the possibility that a significant downtrend has begun. To avoid being wishy-washy about it, I will keep a close eye on minor, ostensibly corrective downtrends, since the hallmark of a bear market is abcd corrections that routinely start exceeding their 'd' targets. Here is just such a pattern that left the futures dangling in a a crucial spot when the week ended. Another bear giveaway is when rallies fail to achieve their D targets, or still worse, fail to even reach their midpoint (p) Hidden Pivots. We'll be watching for that as well. ______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:02 p.m.): Sellers crushed the 4316.00 downside target shown in the chart linked above, suggesting that a major selloff has begun. If you bottom-fished the low, including in DIA, as some subscribers appear to have done, don't be greedy about taking profits. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 1:50 p.m.): I am suspicious of the bounce but have resolved to trade it strictly by-the-numbers. I already missed a great 'mechanical' opportunity to get long yesterday at p=4216, but I don't fancy letting another slip by me. The next could be a short from D=4413.75 (our old friend); or, because the pattern is so obvious, from somewhere just below it. That implies the next high could be a