Rick’s Picks

I've switched to an rABC pattern and a less ambitious target at 1858.60 because gold's trek higher has been so laborious, if not to say tortuous.  Intraday swings have been too nasty and frequent to use a buy-and-hold approach. However, the 'mechanical' set-up shown in the inset is designed to help make it easier on you, at least for a possible short ride from x to p2 or higher, as illustrated. We'll be better able to judge the strength of the uptrend, such as it is, once we've seen buyers interact with the target. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 8:35 p.m. ET): No one mentioned this in the chat room, but the trade suggested above was showing a $6000 profit on four lots at today's high. Because I was too preoccupied to signal an exit when gold surged this afternoon, I'll do so now for an $1800 gain on the pullback to 1809.10.

Silver has lagged gold lately and may need to grope its way lower to find good footing. The chart shown is intended to exploit that scenario with an rABC set-up and a point 'c' low positioned at p=25.46.  This Hidden Pivot support is nicely situated in a 'discomfort zone', since, if you look to the left, there are no prior lows that the hoi-polloi would be referencing for structural support. Because we're playing for a turn from p precisely, I've somewhat shortened the a-b interval of the reverse bullish-pattern.  If you don't trade futures and prefer to use SLV, try a tightly stopped bid at 23.46, a midpoint support equivalent to the one in the futures chart. You could also use 'camouflage', call options or rABC to initiate the trade, but don't stick with it if it goes against you more than a little. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:14 p.m.): Sellers crushed the midpoint pivot at 25.46, negating our plan to position a point 'c' low there for an rABC buying set-up.  A point 'a' anchored at 25.03, the intraday low, would have triggered a buy at 25.22, with p=25.41, but unless I hear from at least two subscribers who elected the trade, I won't provide tracking guidance. _______ UPDATE (Jul 22, 4:38): Buyers took out one internal peak and two 'externals' on the hourly chart, imply bulls are likely to dominate at least till Sunday evening.

Bitcoin's fat-cat sponsors show no eagerness to let it fall, perhaps because they are loaded up to the gills already and don't want more even at 'bargain' prices.  A test of support at the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at p=27,789, seems likely in any event, and anyone who trades this rabid badger should plan on bottom-fishing there with whatever flavor of 'camouflage' feels comfortable. The tactic itself implies using minor abc patterns to get long or short in places where entry has been signaled on charts of much larger degree. 'Camouflage' can be combined with virtually any other trading system you use in order to further reduce entry risk. For information concerning the mini-course on 'camouflage' set-ups, click here. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:43 p.m. ET): Buyers have pushed past a minor midpoint resistance, so I've switched to a pattern of larger degree with a 34,335 target where p=31,820. The pattern shows promise if you want to get long 'mechanically' on a nasty swoon.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:51 a.m.): Bitcoin has rallied opportunistically through a no-supply zone extending up to around 40,000, but it will face real sellers from here on up -- all losers from the last run-up. The short squeeze tells us that bitcoins handlers are every bit as skillful and vicious as the best and brightest at Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. (Actually, they are all bitcoin stakeholders themselves.) In mere hours on Sunday, when most sellers were on the beach, a rally snatched back every penny anyone who had been patiently short for the last month would have made. This will effectively neutralize bears, putting fear in their hearts when DaBoyz decide it's time to take BTC again to new record highs. ______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:28 p.m.): Use p=40,963

Bulls spent the week in thin air before exhaustion set in on Friday. Will the downtrend get legs?  The best way to tell is to watch minor corrections, since a growing tendency to overshooting their 'd' targets will imply that the selling is getting stronger. Correspondingly, we should see rallies fail to reach their 'D' targets or even Hidden Pivot midpoints. The 363.15 target given earlier still obtains, and DIA would in fact become a fetching 'mechanical' buy if the pullback comes down to x=340.30. For now, we'll just spectate. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:37 p.m.): Very heavy selling drove DIA well below the mechanical-buy 'sweet spot' at 340.30. However, using the same a-b coordinates, I allowed the trade anyway when a still ongoing rebound triggered it at 339.68 in the final seconds of the session.  This gambit is riskier than I'd prefer -- not because the bounce won't be sufficiently robust to reach my profit-taking level at 341.99, but because this could conceivably happen in the dead of night. The E-Mini-Dow has already rallied 300 points off the low and would signal a profitable exit if it hits 34,109. Whatever happens, you should plan on taking the entire position off at p=341.99, provided you have access to DIA in off-hours trading; or by shorting the E-Mini futures 'against the box'. As far as I can surmise from discussion in the chat room, no subscribers took the trade. _______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:20 a.m.):  The trade worked precisely as anticipated when DIA topped at 342.28, an inch above the red line, in the middle of the night.  Also as expected, it  retreated sharply thereafter, with the E-Mini Dow following exactly the same path. If you did the trade using 400 shares or four contracts, you should be out of it

Just because the futures topped Friday almost exactly where we'd expected doesn't mean the rally is over.  It will be, eventually, perhaps even in our lifetime. But odds favor more upside most immediately to at least D=4413.75 (see inset) before buyers take a breather. I'm down with getting short there, but let's at least try to make a few bucks on the remaining 50 or so points to the target.  This will require close attention to the intraday charts, since there can be no true impulse legs on the daily chart when the averages are making new record highs.  To keep things in perspective, especially for hopeful permabears, the September contract could plunge to the red line (p=4216), and be none the worse for it -- be a fetching 'mechanical' buy, actually; or even to x=4118 and still look bullish. _____ UPDATE (July 13, 10:13 p.m.): A promising 'mechanical' long triggered late in the session off this pattern, but I did not sanction it because it promised a long night for bulls. This was irrespective of whether one's goal was the red line (not recommended), or just a nominal profit. True to the forecast at the time (in the chat room), the futures stopped out the intraday low before embarking on a so-far weak rally that is break-even at the moment. _______ UPDATE (July 14, 9:31 a.m.): After bottoming out in the dead of night, the September contract has miraculously rallied to the red line, producing a profit of $3600 for anyone who boarded four lots 'mechanically' yesterday afternoon at x=4359.75. I'd suggest exiting at least half here while noting there is probably more profit left in the trade, since the phony JPM/GS shakedown is spent. D=4413.75, our old friend. _______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 5:39 p.m.):  The weakness is becoming

August Gold tripped a theoretical buy signal last week when it touched the green line (1809.8). We won't rush to get long(er), but the persistence with which the future head-butted the line could be likened to a gentleman caller who rings the doorbell four or five times to announce himself. The pullbacks were shallow as well, strongly implying bulls will dominate for the next couple of weeks if not longer.  I'll suggest using p=1869.40 as a minimum upside projection for now and trading with a bullish bias, but we'll need to see a convincing punch through it before we allow ourselves to enthuse over a further push to D=1988.70. ______ UPDATE (Jul 12, 6:37 p.m. ET): The futures' pathetic struggle at the green line today reminded me that I'd resolved not to be any more bullish in my comments than is justified by the technical evidence. My earlier assertion that the so-far shallow pullback after tripping a buy signal portends a week or two of strength was overreaching. We'll continue to use 1869.40 as a target, but I'm not offering it as a done deal. In any event, the August contract would need to close for two consecutive days above x to merit a more upbeat outlook. ______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 9:44 a.m.): Gold has popped to 1831.10 this morning, high enough to break free of the green line's gravity. You can use p=1869.4o as a minimum upside target for now.

You've got to admire the pluck the futures showed last week in repelling an assault by sellers that should have pushed the August contract down to at least p=25.69.  That would have been a great place to attempt bottom-fishing, but the fact that we were denied the opportunity can and should be construed as bullish.  Assuming the upthrust that ended the week starts the new one by taking out some minor 'external' peaks, we should be able to devise some 'mechanical' set-ups for some profitable rides higher as the futures bid fair to wreck the bearish pattern shown in the inset. Zoom the rightmost abc on the hourly chart down to the 15-minute chart or so  (A=25.92 on 7/9  and at 9:00 a.m. ET) and you'll have your starter kit. This will be a high-odds trade for Sunday night-owls, since the competition, emerging from weekend lethargy, will not be looking for a buy signal quite this subtle. Here's a chart to help guide you. _____ UPDATE (Jul 12, 7:07 p.m. ET): The futures didn't dip low enough to trigger the trade, but an alert chat-room denizen flagged another that would have produced a $3000-or-more profit on four full-size contracts in a little more than two hours. Check his post at 10:19 a.m. to determine whether the opportunity would have suited you. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 5:55 p.m.):  Silver is in an uptrend, although you'll need sensitive equipment to detect it.  The pattern shown here, with a 27.15 target, looks very promising for trading and predicting. It already signaled a 'mechanical' entry on Wednesday that was worth a quick $6800 to  anyone who bought four lots 'mechanically' on the 'textbook' pullback to the green line.  

DaBoyz goosed shorts Friday to kick off an unmistakable lurch toward a 363.15 target that has been beckoning for several weeks. (A similarly bullish target at 365.67 had teased bulls since May but was negated by mid-June's fake breakdown.) I see no particular opportunities at the moment and note that even the obvious one, a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=340.30, was denied us when DIA's engineered plunge last Thursday failed to touch the green line where we like to position 'mechanical' bids.  We should expect little more generosity on the way up, but since we know where DIA is headed, it should be fairly easy to grab short hops along the way. Stay close to the chat room or activate 'Notifications' on your account page to stay apprised.

I've been tracking this heap because it once had a following, but the portfolio monkeys long ago moved on to more lucrative, invented themes, jettisoning humble 'value' for lunatic growthies that are easier to expand to a horizon set at infinity.  Not that there was ever much real value in the small-caps, only that they were less absurdly priced than the FAANGs. I'll keep IWM on the home page nonetheless but leave it to some sharp-eyed subscriber to wake me when opportunity knocks. The 237.72 target is still valid, by the way, and I wouldn't mind shorting there if the opportunity should arise, but we should have no illusions that this will happen soon. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 10:36 p.m. ET): The 215/220/225 butterfly spread I recommended on June 9 has nearly quadrupled in price, so it's time to exit if you haven't already. A subscriber reported he was in $ 0.35 and out today for 1.26.  Any others? ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 4:35 p.m.): I am leaving this glue horse on the list as a placeholder, pending the day when the portfolio chimps who made it their absolutely favoritest flavor between March 2020 and February of this year return it to fashion. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 11:19 p.m.): A rising tide lifts all boats, as the saying goes, so don't be surprised if an explosive rally in QQQ that looks imminent hoists this garbage barge's gunnel above the water line. ______ UPDATE (Aug 14): The garbage barge has gone nowhere, other than gratuitously up and down to annoy everyone. IWM's behavior shows how DaBoyz are in complete control, owing in no small part to an almost complete absence of sellers. Although institutional demand for Russell 2000 stocks is effectively at zero and has been since March, it still doesn't