Bears had better not break out the bubbly yet, since Thursday's powerful selloff did not disturb the 10571 rally target first disseminated here two weeks ago. The key feature in the chart is the April 17 spike through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 8600.00. Usually, when a clear midpoint resistance is so easily and decisively penetrated it means the D target with which it is associated is likely to be achieved. That doesn't mean the futures can't get pummeled all the way back down to p=8600 in the meantime, or even to x=7614, before they reverse and head for their fated rendezvous with 10,571. However, we would be 'mechanical' buyers at either level, based on the way buyers speared the midpoint pivot. Please note that the pattern shown in the chart, with A-B shifted downward to the 2016-2018 bull cycle, came within 0.7% of nailing the then-record high of 9763 achieved in mid-February. This suggests the pattern is a good one for predicting key turning points. ______ UPDATE (Jun 15, 8:35 p.m.): Short-covering psychotics are back in the driver's seat, headed most immediately to the 10341 target shown. Consider it a lock-up if the futures pop through p=9854 decisively or close above it for two consecutive days. As for the bigger-picture target at 10571, as recent touts made clear there was never a reason to doubt it would be reached, least of all when stocks were freefalling last week. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 9:31 p.m.): With AAPL and the E-Mini S&Ps mildly in retreat Thursday night, and this vehicle unable to muster a push to an unchallenging 'secondary pivot' at 10,098, we should expect sellers to dominate into week's end. A moderate rally on the opening bell should be shorted, since it would imply DaBoyz are getting
The 354.47 rally target sent out last week ahead of a powerful rally enabled subscribers to get short just 30 cents from the top of Thursday's hellish plunge. Several of you reported using put options, but I will track the remainder of the position using stock. Profit taking intervals advised in the chat room were at 348.50 and 340.41, leaving a hundred shares short with an effective cost basis of 380.47. The implied gain on paper works out to $4457 at a current price of 335.90. For now, use a stop-loss of 351.07, but check back toward the end of the day for a possible update ahead of the weekend. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 10:20 p.m.): My immediate downside target is 332.22 (30-min, a=351.06 on 6/11). Bid 332.70 to cover the remaining 100 shares (or last 25% of the of the original position), but also bring the stop-loss down to 342.74 if AAPL trades below 336.22.
Sellers left stocks hanging on for dear life at the close, implying the market is unlikely to come roaring back to end the week. A few more days of punishment could lie ahead, but how much more of it are we likely to see. The chart shows two Fibonacci levels that would equate to pullbacks of, respectively, 61.8% and 78.6%, measured against the powerful rally begun from 2760 on May 14. The corresponding levels are 2940, which lies 86 points below; and 2861, which would imply a 166-point plunge. I doubt that this correction -- and that's what I think it is -- will exceed the May 14 bottom, but if sellers crush a couple more external lows on Friday (i.e., 2992 and 2903), we may need to reconsider.
Subscribers used a 12.92 target posted in the Trading Room Wednesday morning to get long just a few ticks off the bottom before the Nasdaq index plunged. Many reported jumping on the trade in order to take advantage of the 2x leverage QID provides for shorting the Nasdaq 100. Although I left it up to individual subscribers to decide how to manage the ongoing risk, I am establishing a tracking position because some reported still being short at the close. Assuming profits were taken on half the position when QID was up $1.00 would leave 200 shares an adjusted cost basis of 11.92. Offer a round lot to close at 16.10, o-c-o with a stop-loss on 200 shares at 13.27. [Note: I erroneously gave 14.35 earlier. That was close to the intraday high. RA] Be sure to check back intraday, since I will likely trail the stop. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 10:55 p.m.): Lower the 16.10 offer for 100 shares to 15.05, but save the last round lot for a shot at 16.10. The stop-loss should be raised to 13.53. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 10:31 p.m.): The remainder of the position was closed out Tuesday night at 13.53, producing a final profit of $322.
Not that we’d forsaken them. They are still our main workhorse for getting into trades, and we worked them pretty hard during this session. It turns out that when the trend is particularly strong, we needn’t wait for a pullback from the sweet spot to do the trade at the green line. Not only will a pullback from p itself work, and often, but so will pullbacks from p2 to p. There are some nuanced shadings to consider when you set up these trades, but you will see for yourself that the rules are not unusably subjective.
Bulls faced two daunting Hidden Pivot obstacles on Friday, demolishing both with little effort. They'd been well advertised here, making them less than ideal as places to get short. Fortunately, they appear to have kept some subscribers who've had trouble believing this absurd rally from getting short prematurely. You should prepare yourselves now for upside to at least 3300.50, the Hidden pivot shown in the chart. Judging from the way the uptrend has impaled the secondary pivot at 3165.44, the June contract should have little difficulty getting there. We'll want to squeeze off a short at that point, but as usual, I am recommending the trade mainly to those of you who have made some money -- at least $1000 in this case -- on the way up. Please note that the equivalent target for the September contract, which will become active the week of June 15, is 3285.50. Here is the chart. _______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:28 p.m. EDT): Use this pattern to trade the little monsters en route to the bigger-picture target at 3300.50 noted above. It projects to 3259.50, and all levels -- x. p and p2 -- can be used to position a 'mechanical' bid that meets the criteria of the Hidden Pivot Method. As always, seek real-tie guidance in the Trading Room if you are interested._______ UPDATE (June 9, 10:22 p.m.): You're up $5200 at the moment if you used the pattern linked in the previous update to stage a 'mechanical' bid at the green line. The set-up was textbook-perfect, although it took the futures six hours to get airborne after they tripped a buy signal at 4:30 a.m. Eastern. Here's the chart. If I hear from two subscribers who are still in the trade, I'll establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 10:22
DIA's gap-up openings have provided no opportunities to get long on-the-fly. Instead, we'll have to settle for a short initiated at D=280.28, a Hidden Pivot that is all but guaranteed to be reached because of Friday's gap through p=265.48. I'll suggest buying the first near-expiration puts priced under $1 when DIA gets within 0.05 points of the target. I may be able to refine that strategy in real time, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. A move to the target will turn the old record high at 295.87 magnetic, so we should have no illusions about D's stopping power. _____ UPDATE (June 10, 9:40 p.m. EDT): The 280.28 target is still an odds-on bet, but DIA looks like it's fixing to roll down hard before the next bull thrust. Ordinarily I would suggest placing a 'mechanical' bid at 265.48, but my gut it saying we'll be able to get in cheaper if we wait. Here's a nice chart to hearten all of you bears who have been waiting so patiently for a breath of sanity. _______ UPDATE (June 11, 8:21 p.m.): DIA crashed without quite reaching the 280.28 target, and although some subscribers apparently got short ahead of the plunge, they acted on their own initiative, so I am not establishing a tracking position. My gut feeling is that the selling will continue into next week, and I'd therefore suggest caution if you jump on any rallies on Friday. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 11:07 p.m.): The midpoint pivot has held so far, since the Mini-Dow futures have traded no lower than 25,080 as of 11 p.m. Sunday night. If it is breached decisively, that would put the 237.52 target in play. The pattern could be tradeable, so tune to the chat room if you care. _______
Gold had a lousy week, even dipping beneath a clear Hidden Pivot support on Friday to show bulls who's boss. The 1671.70 intraday low was a great place to have faded the trend, although not minutes ahead of the closing bell. That's no assurance the selling won't continue next week, especially if the stock market rampages anew. For all the nasty selloffs we've seen in bullion over the last couple of years, bears have shown themselves to be just bullies, too cowardly to throw a punch unless investors' interest has been diverted elsewhere. We'll continue to look for opportunities in either direction, but with no illusions about easy set-ups that can be detailed the night before. Stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely guidance. ______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:45 p.m. EDT): The futures have come within inches of the 1710.80 target I posted in the Trading Room at 15:31. The clarity of the pattern is sufficient to imply that even a small penetration of perhaps $1.50-$2.00 would augur still higher prices. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (June 9, 9:39 a.m.): Here's what's happening in GCQ at the moment: https://bit.ly/3h40CBo Gnarliest pattern ever, but with a sausage-y 'B'. I rate the mechanical 'buy' a 6.6. _______ UPDATE (June 9, 10:45 p.m.): If you bought on the pullback to the green line as suggested in my last update, you are currently sitting on a profit of $2400. If I hear from two subscribers who did the trade, I'll establish a tracking position. Here's the chart. The 1736.30 target remains viable. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 9:51 p.m.): Gold is in its fifth week of range-trading, so we ought not be too presumptuous about what might occur next. If this is the usual failed rally, look for a top somewhere around 1772.90 [NOTE:
AAPL's performance on Friday left no doubt about where it is headed. The gap through the 327.34 midpoint Hidden Pivot has put the stock on course for a run-up to D=354.47. This implies the broad averages will be moving higher too (and gold probably lower), since AAPL is the most popular must-own stock since man has walked the Earth. Jumping aboard a speeding freight train is never going to be easy, but we can look for opportunities intraday with the potential to let us in with risk well controlled. Stay tune to the Trading Room if you're interested. Options will not likely be the way to go because 'implieds' are on the moon, but you can trade odd lots of 2 to 4 shares if you prefer. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 10:04 p.m. EDT): The 354.47 target that I'd all but guaranteed (see above) caught the top of a $21 spike within 30 cents. No one reported making use of this Hidden Pivot in the Trading Room, but if you did please let me know so that I can establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (June 11, 7:01 a.m.): Some subscribers evidently did use the target to get short at the exact top, so I am establishing a tracking position: We are short 400 shares from 354.47. Use a break-even stop for now on all of it, worked o-c-o with a bid at 350.80 to cover half. If it's filled we'll keep at least 25% of the position for a potential home run. Don't underestimate the ability of this stock to cripple, maim and defenestrate bears, since the smartest money in the world is in it up to their eyeballs. _______ UPDATE (7:23 a.m.) I just realized that Apple was trading near 348 when I posted the recommendation to cover
A 'mechanical' buy at p=1011.94 recommended here two weeks ago remains viable and is showing a paper gain of about $16,000 at current levels. If the stock achieves the 1166.99 target, the gain would be exactly $62,020. For those who hold an actual position, including odd-lotters, I'd suggest taking a partial profit on half at p2=1089.47. The trade was posted mainly for the benefit of new subscribers who have not had the opportunity to observe 'mechanical' set-ups at work. The strategy is particularly well suited to trading vehicles that move violently, and it has yielded some nice trades including one last year in bitcoin that is still 'live' and profitable, with a target above $20,000. _______ UPDATE (June 11, 8:43 p.m. EDT): The stock is having a bad week, but not as bad as some. Let's see if the sleazeballs and maniacs who have been driving CMG can keep the concept of Burrito Nation alive until the closing bell. Key support comes in around 987. I am still tracking two round lots showing a substantial gain, but I'm going to close out the position now at a current price of 1000.74. The implied profit on the trade is $5650.
