This trade could work for novices, since the midpoint pivot is so well situated and the impulse leg is strictly 'kosher' (and even a little gnarly). Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're keen to play, since I will try to make myself available for precise guidance if the trade triggers. The gist of it would be to buy a June 26 call at the lowest strike where they are trading for under $1. That would be around 266/267, but I can't be sure until I've seen how things open Monday morning. There's always the chance DIA will open on a gap, as it nearly always does, that is beneath the p=254.53 midpoint pivot where we intend to do our buying. You should attempt the trade with the DIA within 0.05 points or less of that number, but not if DIA has dropped below 254.43. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:34 p.m. EDT): I still like the trade, although not as much after enduring three days of gratuitous sideways shuffle at or below the green line. If p=254.82 is hit within the first hour of the regular session, do as recommended; otherwise, cancel all plans. ____ UPDATE (June 2, 9:01 p.m.): Tedium has taken its toll on the trade, and so we've canceled it. Better opportunities will surely come along _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:46 p.m.): The breach of the 254.62 midpoint support was less than two points, but that's sufficient to shift the burden of proof to bulls. An acceleration to the downside would put the 242.09 target shown in the chart in play. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:08 p.m.): A rally to x=260.88 would trip a 'mechanical' short via this pattern with a stop-loss at 267.14. This is NOT to be traded using put options, since the trade is not
Early June's powerful impulse leg suggests that a pullback to p=9854.7 would offer a compelling 'mechanical' buying opportunity. The stop-loss would be at 9692.50. I am wary of putting this trade out on a Sunday night, however, since you never know how ugly things could get in the netherworld of off-hours trading. On balance, I'll suggest paper trading this one, even if I am rating it a juicy '7.6'. Pivoteers proficient with 'camouflage' set-ups can attempt it with real money nonetheless, provided you can find a set-up on the one- or five-minute chart that limits initial theoretical risk to perhaps $125 per contract. A 10,571 rally target given here earlier remains viable, as does the lesser one at 10341 shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:42 p.m.): The trade triggered around 7:00 p.m. and is showing a profit at the moment of around $25,000 on four contracts. No one even mentioned NQ in the chat room, so I am not establishing a tracking position. The generous (but mechanically necessary) 9692.50 stop-loss proved unnecessary, since the futures never dipped more than slightly below the 9854.75 entry price. D=10341 is still the minimum upside projection. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 9:05 p.m.): Today's psychotic lunge came within 0.4% of the 10341 target -- close enough to consider it fulfilled. Even so, if short-covering bears get second wind and push the futures to our number, you can still short there with a very tight stop-loss. You can also use QQQ to interpolate if you don't do futures. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:04 p.m.): Sellers looked like they had unfinished business at the close, implying the futures could fall all the way to the 9840.50 target shown in this chart if the weakness snowballs. ______UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:22 p.m.): This morning's bullish reversal e bounce
August gold rallied on Friday to within a millimeter of a 1762.40 Hidden Pivot that I'd said would show stopping power. The 1760.90 high was also a single tick shy of an external peak recorded on June 1. The shallow retracement that followed is encouraging on the question of whether a breakout is coming, but it would take a strong follow-through surpassing p=1772.90 in this chart to put the 1877.40 target seriously in play. Mechanical trades initiated using the pattern have entry risk approaching $2500 per contract, but we may be able to use smaller patterns to get it done. As always, you should tune to the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (June 22, 8:49 p.m.EDT): The futures poked above 1772.90 (see above) for a moment but closed below it. This is encouraging but not quite sufficient to lock up a moon shot to the 1877.40 target. There are probably too many rightly enthusiastic buyers at this point for the futures to pull back to x=1721, but if they do, consider it a gift to traders looking for a high-odds mechanical entry, stop 1668.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:07): A head-fake to 1796 before DaBoyz pulled the plug would have stopped out any shorts from the 1790 level I'd flagged. All bullish targets above remain valid in theory, but we'll wait and see what the little POS does on Thursday before we try anything new. ______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:30 p.m.): A day of tedium reiterated a 'mechanical' buy at x=1772.40 triggered Wednesday morning. We're not officially in the trade, but 50% should be exited at p=1786.50, worked against a stop-loss at 1758.30.
AAPL stalled in a precarious place Friday en route to what had looked like a high-probability rally target at 370.19. Actually, the stall occurred well shy of a lesser target at 363.34 shown in the chart. It too was 'high-probability, given the gap through the midpoint resistance on Friday. Both patterns remains viable, but the stock's canny handlers will need to exercise care trying to re-inflate the stock, since the bad news on the company -- 11 stores shut down again due to Covid-19 outbreaks -- is not something easily shrugged off. Regardless of how things play out, we'll continue to treat AAPL as the stock most capable of leading the world's stocks markets in either direction or even sideways.
I haven't featured TSLA in a while, but the promising pattern shown in the chart was too fetching to ignore. It suggests not only that a $106 rally lies just ahead, but that a short initiated when the stock is between the two targets, respectively at 1096.89 and 1106.46 will enjoy favorable odds. I'll provide a more detailed instruction at the appropriate time, but the gist of it will be to buy put options priced at $1 or less with about two weeks left on them. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and this tout if you're interested. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 8:16 a.m. EDT): For what's it's worth, making money with call options when I forecast a 106-point rally ten days ago was MUCH harder than it sounds. If for instance you had bought July 3 1100 calls then for around $16, you'd be up a whopping when the stock was peaking yesterday at 1088. The short play remains viable nevertheless if and when the stock climbs into the specified range. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 10:19 p.m.): Subscribers used the 1142.51 Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart to get short via the Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spread. Variations on this strategy were reported, and different prices, but for your further guidance, I'll track four spreads @ 1.00. This price was anomalously low, but do-able nonetheless. It's possible the 600-strike puts shorted in this gambit were abnormally juicy because retail customers were buying them as a longshot bet. Puts at the 700 strike were similarly overpriced. TSLA may get second wind a pop above D, but I doubt it will get very far. _______ UPDATE (Jul 2, 10:00 a.m.): Love those bearish butterflies! When we put them on with the stock $90 lower than this morning's high, using an 1142 target,
The psychotic pre-dawn spasm shown in the chart did nothing to alter an unexciting picture. As I have have said here repeatedly, gold is not in a bull market, but a bullish one. The former produces relentless rallies, with occasional swoons that are quickly recouped. Gold has done no such thing. It continues to mark time with little institutional support, unable to compete for attention with the Mother of All Short Squeeze Rallies. For now, we'll consider gold's prospects one day at a time. The slight breach of the 1725.80 midpoint support suggests bears will have an edge over the near term. Even so, if you are comfortable with rABC trades and their ability to limit risk significantly, bottom-fishing at p2=1714.10 looks like a potential winner. Any significant slippage below this threshold would open a path to D=1702.40. Alternatively, if the futures unexpectedly move higher, a push past 1748.40 would imply more upside to at least 1762.40, a Hidden Pivot that could show some stopping power. ______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 9:15 EDT): In after-hours trading the futures have speared a 1790 target I posted in the chat room this afternoon. Traders who got short there should have covered half of it around 1786.40, since the pullback to that number is equal to three times what was risked at the 1791.80 top. For now, I'd suggest a 1790.50 stop-loss for the remaining half, o-c-o with an order to cover another 25% of the position at 1785.80.
Wednesday's punk performance suggests bulls are ready for rest. Even the obligatory short-squeeze dog-and-pony show on the opening failed to lift the futures to a modest midpoint pivot at 3164.88. A pop above it, however unlikely, would put the 3266.75 target shown in play. Otherwise, expect a breach of C=3063.00, then, probably, a weak rally after bulls have been stopped out. It could provide an enticing opportunity to get short, so tune to the Trading Room discussion if you want to participate.
The 336.22 target I sent out Sunday night nailed the start of AAPL's maniacal, $12 bounce on Monday within 36 cents, telegraphing the correspondingly wild-eyed bounce that occurred in the Nasdaq 100 and the broad averages. It also caught the exact low of the gap-down, opening-bar plunge orchestrated by the stock's inventively sleazy handlers. Let me repeat this for the benefit of new subscribers: Get AAPL exactly right and you won't have to guess about exactly where the stock market is headed. The pattern shown suggests that Apple shares are all but certain to hit the 370.19 target. When they do, this important Hidden Pivot is so clear and compelling that it is bound to be short-able. Look for the pivot to act like granite the first time the lunatic brigade encounters it. I haven't made the target publicly viewable, nor should you tell your friends about it. Your trading bias should stay bullish until it is reached, since 370.19 is also our minimum upside objective. If you've made $2000 or more when we get there, short the bejeezus out of 'D' with a stop-loss that risks half of it. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 9:06 p.m. EDT): Careful! The 370.19 target may have to wait, since AAPL's handlers appear to be distributing stock ahead of a shakedown. Its purpose would be to steal stock from widows and pensioners at relative fire-sale prices. If the move creates any special opportunities while I'm in the trading room, I will let you know.
A gap-down opening Sunday night that was intended to exhaust sellers has left a crucial midpoint support at 2964 untouched. If it is decisively penetrated, that would put the 2851.50 target theoretically in play and also set up a 'mechanical' short on a rally back up to the green line. Although the opening bar necessarily achieved its purpose, the shallow bounce so far suggests that a second wave of selling is coming. Any further analysis will have to wait until liquidity shows up at the opening bell. _______ UPDATE (June 15, 8:22 p.m. EDT): Some subscribers got in front of a speeding projectile today, shorting at the green line without a game plan. Check out my posts in the Trading Room between 12:19 and 12:56 for some helpful hints. I put out a wide range of recommendations suited to all levels of experience, but the ones intended for relative novices or those unfamiliar with the Hidden Pivot Method usually contain explicitly detailed instructions. In general, if the instructions do not tell you everything you (personally) need to know to do the trade, you should pass it up. There will always be another opportunity. If a trade recommendation lacks such details, it is not an oversight; rather, it is because tactical clarity was not possible at the time the guidance was formulated. ______UPDATE (June 16, 10:27 p.m.) The rally stalled almost precisely at the 3158.25 midpoint pivot shown here. Given my bullish outlook for AAPL, however, we can expect buyers to surpass the resistance and climb to at least p2=3275.50, if not necessarily to D=3392.75.
Friday's afternoon's histrionics triggered a 'mechanical' short at 9721.50 that has left a 9338.25 target in play well below these levels. (Please note that the equivalent target for the September contract is 9327.50.] Although the futures got socked on the opening bar Sunday night, this was just the usual sleazy ploy to exhaust sellers, the better to run NQ back up their old wazoo. If they return in droves for a second wave of selling before dawn, however, DaBoyz may need to take this vehicle down to the D target flagged above to set-up the next short-squeeze. None of this will have much bearing on the very bullish target at 10571 billboarded here earlier.
