Rick’s Picks

June Gold's steep dive appears bound for the 1561.20 target shown in the chart. The pattern is a good one, and even a little gnarly, implying that a tradeable bounce from very near the target is likely. Your trading bias should be bearish until such time as 1561.20 is reached, but bottom-fishing will be at your discretion. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily exceeded, it would suggest still-lower prices are coming, possibly a test of round-number support near 1500. Tune to the chat-room for entry set-ups in real time that could conceivably hold entry risk down._______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 9:09 a.m. EDT): The futures are up $28 at the moment, trading at 1619.40, and would negate the bearish target if they touch 1629.50. It would also put in play a rally target at p=1679.20 (60-min, A= 1491.70 on 3/23 at 3:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 11:22 p.m.): The futures appear to be consolidating Thursday night for a run at 1679.20. Here's the chart.

There are no little guys left in the market, so institutional investors can push stocks wherever they please.  There were a dozen good reasons for the Dow to have fallen by 2000 points on Monday, considering how grim the pandemic news was over the weekend.  Instead, the Dow rose nearly 700 points, controlled by Masters of the Universe  who are intent on distributing as much stock they can into short-covering rallies. This one looks bound for 2781.50, subject to a possible stall at 2687, the secondary pivot. The mechanical trade that was exited for a big paper profit on Monday is performing better than expected, since I'd thought the futures would get no farther than the red line. Keep that in mind the next time I signal a similar trade.

The bullion bankers' fright-mask tactics should have scared no one, since gold futures are obviously consolidating near the high end of March's astounding $250 swoon. My minimum upside objective is 1751.70, the secondary Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, but any higher would portend more price expansion to at least 1852.00. I waxed skeptical here earlier that this rally could hit $2000, but because the demand for physical has begun to overwhelm supply, I am more optimistic that the move could get legs beyond my target.

DIA has been struggling too hard to get past a midpoint resistance at 221.11 to suggest it's on its way to the 236.90 'D' target of the pattern shown. Although there's a good chance last Thursday's high at 225.87 will prove to be an important top, I'll hold off on shorting strategies until this vehicle  catches up with index futures Monday morning. While I've put out a paper-trade in ES that called for buying this evening's opening at 2459.00, this advice does not apply to the Diamonds because they trade only during U.S. daytime hours and have traced out a less bullish pattern. Of course, the two vehicles cannot go their separate ways, but it's possible the E-Mini S&Ps can fulfill their rally target outside of regular hours. ______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:10 p.m. EDT): The Indoos have spent four days screwing the pooch near p=221.11, but today's close above this pivot implies minimum upside over the near term to at least p2=229.01. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 7:22 p.m.):  Zzzzzzzzz. No change even though DIA closed below the midpoint Hidden Pivot today.

I expect index futures to open lock-limit lower Sunday evening, but if it's not quite that bad, the 'mechanical' paper-trade I recommended earlier could be in effect.  Specifically, it implies bidding 2496 for four contracts, with a stop-loss at 2402 that is just beneath the point 'C' low of the pattern shown (inset).  I'll be interested myself to see whether the 'mechanical'-trade idea holds -- i.e., that this type of trade works best when price swings are at their most violent. In this instance, once the contracts are acquired they would be subject to a 2590 price objective, o-c-o with the 2402 stop. Theoretical risk is $4700 per contract.  The trade would not  trigger if the opening is beneath 2402.  A 5%-limit, gap-down opening would occur at 2394, just beneath the specified range of my guidance. Most immediately, expect more slippage to at least p=2156.00 (daily chart, A=3131.00 on 3/3) if Friday's selloff continues as I expect.  No matter what happens, I see much lower lows in the weeks ahead. That makes all rallies enticing shorts, although, as we've seen, this has been most difficult to pull off. _______ UPDATE (8:19 p.m. EDT): The bid filled at 2459.00, the price at which the futures opened Sunday evening. (Remember, this is a paper trade intended to familiarize you with 'mechanical' set-ups.) We are offering four contracts to close at 2590 with an o-c-o stop-loss at 2400.00. ______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 8:17 a.m.): I am exiting the position now with the futures  trading at 2543.  The theoretical gain is around $4100 per contract.  Strictly speaking, applying a 'dynamic trailing stop' (which I've explained in the Trading Room), I'd have closed out the trade at 2559, reaping a further gain of $800. In this case, I am following my gut rather than strictly

The chart shows a 2778 rally target that would represent a nearly exact 50% retracement of losses sustained at the low of last week's crash. At that price the S&Ps would be trading a mere 18% from the record-high 3398 achieved on February 20. Does anyone actually believe that a stock market that was pumped full of gas to begin with will have properly discounted the global recession-or-worse that is coming at that level? Surely not, and that's why this bounce, spectacular though it's been, is doomed to fail.  Looking just ahead, getting short at the 50% mark seems too obvious a strategy to succeed, so we'll be looking for alternative ways to lay 'em out at the appropriate time. Denizens in the Rick's Picks trading room have been diligently monitoring this vehicle anyway, and trading the heck out of its thrusts, dives and swoons. For now, use p2=2684 as a minimum upside objective and stay close to the Trading Room for intraday adjustments.

By popular request, I am going to start tracking this ETF vehicle more closely in order to give subscribers an alternative to futures contracts for purposes of trading and portfolio positioning. We got off to a good start today when a 221.11 rally target that I posted in the Trading Room came within less than a point of nailing the top of the session's rabid, short-squeeze rally. Numerous subscribers reported buying put options, or interpolating short triggers in other vehicles to produce a quick, lucrative score that in some cases exceeded $1,000. Now, a fall beneath C=205.32 would negate the bullish pattern though not necessarily end the manic buying binge of the last two days. Alternatively, a close decisively above p=221.11 would put the 236.90 target in play. ______ UPDATE (March 26, 8:16 p.m. EDT): The vicious spike in the final minutes means bears are still badly on the hook. Use p2=229.01 as a minimum upside objective (see inset), and thence D=236.90 if it's decisively exceeded.

Just so you know, the biggest rally since 1933 has yet to surpass even a single 'external' peak on the hourly chart. For that reason, I'll reserve my enthusiasm for the time being -- especially since we know that the purpose of bear rallies is to fool us into believing they are the real McCoy. Did today's wild-eyed buying ignore the reality that grave uncertainties will continue to hang over the economy for the foreseeable future? Of course it did. Did Trump's optimism go over-the-top when he circled April 12, Easter, as the goal for loosening the lockdown on commerce? For sure. As it happened, just minutes before he spoke, the World Health Organization was predicting America will be the scene of the next big outbreak. Don't think I am going to get in the way of this speeding locomotive, though, no sirree.  But I will remain skeptical as long as my stock charts fail to confirm such unwarranted exuberance as we saw today. As I keep reminding you, it's all about impulse legs, and I will continue to look at ABC patterns in ES and other trading vehicles as though they were formed from inconsequential, one-minute price bars. They are all the same to me. For now, that means buyers will need to push this brick past past 2542.75, an 'external' peak that I've labeled in the chart. Also, I cannot simply overlook the fact that the recent lows shredded a clear and very important downside target at 2206.75. Some chartists would say this Hidden Pivot support held, albeit barely. In my estimation it didn't, and the 1956.25 downside target given here earlier will therefore remain theoretically valid until such time as C=2697.25 is exceeded to the upside. Until that happens, forgive me for not being excited. Isn't that

Yesterday in the chat room, I asserted that gold should have been up $120, not a mere $70, to discount the Fed's planned dollar giveaway to...EVERYBODY. However, I was unmindful of the fact that the supposedly omniscient stock market is actually as dumb as a fence post, hence the delayed reaction. It can be dumber than a fence post, actually. Recall how it took more than two weeks for stocks to drop after people began to keel over dead in Wuhan. If Feinstein and Burr knew enough to sell their shares, 'the market' should have too. Anyway, I do NOT see inflation on the horizon, and that is why I think this rally is unlikely to hit $2000. We should enjoy it while it lasts, though. It is guaranteed to hit a minimum 1731.20 (basis April) over the very near term, or 1852.00 if any higher, with a possible stall at 1751.70.  The chart shows the provenance of these targets.