Rick’s Picks

For all of last week's violent price swings, the April contract appears to be basing above 1450. The 1407.30 downside target remains viable nonetheless, and the futures did in fact trigger a 'mechanical' short to that number on Friday at 1517.60 (240-min, A=1597.90 on 3/13).  Looking at a much bigger picture, the chart (inset) stretches back a decade in order to put the bull cycle begun in 2016 in a useful perspective.  You don't need to be a technician to see that the $260 surge begun last November, encouraging though it was, fell well shy of the moon shot that would have signaled much higher prices. Specifically, the upthrust failed to generate a strong impulse leg on the weekly chart when it died well shy of the key peak at 1794 recorded in 2012. That doesn't necessarily mean the high won't eventually be exceeded, only that it could take quite a while -- meaning years -- for it to happen. I am not ruling out a spectacular bounce shortly from somewhere above 1400, but if there is instead a protracted rally, even a strong, steady one, its potential would likely be limited. _______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 5:57 p.m. EDT): Gold's biggest rally in recent memory failed to exceed even a single 'external' peak on the hourly chart. The nearest lies at 1574.80, about $5 above today's high, but we'll reserve judgment about the health of the uptrend until we've seen a little more of it.

A week's worth of extreme chop has not altered the 2204.50 minimum downside target proffered here last Sunday. It can be used a minimum downside objective for now, but also as a place to attempt to get long with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide.  Friday's recommendation to get short was posted in the chat room at 5:34 a.m., when most U.S. subscribers to Rick's Picks were asleep. It could have produced a profit of as much as $10,000 per contract, since the June contract fell 200 points after the trade triggered. The actual price at which the trade was to have been initiated differed by just a few points from the 2464.81 trigger given, since the high of the day occurred slightly above where it was when I published my guidance. The set-up followed tactics we have been using routinely during Wednesday tutorial sessions, but I'll leave it to you to figure out why I suggested taking the plunge when I did. ______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 6:10 p.m.): Sellers exceeded the 2204.00 target by enough to suggest that more slippage looms. If so, look for the futures to hit 1956.25, the D target of this pattern.  The Dow will be trading under 16,000 if that happens. Bulls could get a repreive if whatever short-squeeze is planned for Tuesday exceeds the 2386.00 peak shown in the chart.

The futures finished the day exactly where they were last Friday, at the bottom of a monster rally. Thousand-point swoons aside -- and there were more of them than we could accurately recall -- the week has been a big nothingburger. Seeing the glass as half-empty, some might have characterized Thursday's gratuitous swings as bearish, since stocks made no headway. But others would have noticed how sellers failed to break new ground. It was in fact an inside day, with a high and low that fell within the previous day's range. Add in the fact that nearly all of the FAANG/lunatic stocks showed substantial gains, and you might think DaBoyz were developing thrust for a week-ending short squeeze. The fact that AAPL and Boeing lost ground makes the bullish case even more persuasive, since it suggests the ultrasmart money was saving its energy to spring a bear trap worthy of the name. That's my take, and I'd feel even more strongly if index futures are trading moderately lower at the opening bell, looking ready to rumble.  As for the 2204.25 downside target we've been using since Sunday, it looks almost too phat to go unfulfilled. But if this triple witching day ends with the E-Minis above Tuesday's 2543 peak and news over the weekend is less than horrible, expect bulls to come out swinging Sunday night. Virus news has been ever-so-slightly less depressing over the last two days and economic news ugly but not indigestible. The subtle shift could provide perhaps just enough emotional decompression to give shares room to take a deep breath.

We looked at Copper during today's tutorial session and came up with a 2.0380 downside target that I'd expected to take weeks to reach.  Instead, the May futures went into a power dive that came within less than two cents of the target in mere hours. I'd suggested bottom-fishing there and rated the trade an 8.8, meaning it's about as juicy as they come. But the steepness of the plunge brought with it a heightened sense of the risk involved, so I will recommend the trade only to those of you who understand why it amounts to nearly $1800 per contract initially, if using a=260.50 (from weekly continuous chart, where a= 260.50 on 12/16/19). The entry trigger would come at 212.53 for a shot at p=219.55._____ UPDATE (Mar 19, 6:42 p.m.):  Off a 197.25 low, the trade triggered at 199.45. Numerous subscribers reported getting aboard for what turned out to be a steep, exhilarating ride. Based on a so-far high at 291.50, this gambit could have produced a profit of as much as $5012 per contract.

With the scent of disaster hanging over the world's markets this morning, the dollar is down. But not by much, and I doubt it will stay down for long. Following is my post in the trading room, a response to a note from 'Marko' that Franco-Nevada founder Pierre Lassonde is bearish on the dollar. I am not -- and haven't been for 40 years. Here's why: "What reason did Lassonde give for this? I ask because I doubt that he could provide a satisfactory one. The dollar is down somewhat at the moment -- against exactly what I cannot figure out -- but this is probably because the world hears Trump and the Fed promising to supply more or less infinite dollars to "shore up The System." Can they do this? I have argued for more than three decades that they could not, but I guess we will just have to wait and see. Banks Hold Little Cash Neither Lassonde nor any other bankster I am aware of seems to have thought this through. I have, though, having noticed how difficult it was to withdraw just $25,000 in cash money from a Wells Fargo branch when all hell was NOT breaking loose.  I have also asserted -- dozens of times -- that a severe shock to the financial system could unravel the clearing network that allows credit cards and ATMs to work. Did Lassonde mentions this little, ahem, problem? Has he or any of his colleagues ever even thought about it? Of course not. Is it nonetheless possible? Yes, inarguably. And is it possible to keep the global financial system, most particularly the intricate gearwork of the vast repo market, liquid when it is imploding? I seriously doubt it, but I am willing to suspend disbelief for the moment. But

Hey, don't shoot me, I'm only the messenger, but the biggest one-day rally in history failed by a significant margin to reach its D target. That would be 2720.50, as the chart shows, but buyers sputtered out nearly 50 points shy of this Hidden Pivot resistance. It was worse than that, actually, since the A-B leg of the pattern shown wasn't even impulsive, strictly speaking, since its point 'B' high failed to surpass any 'external' peaks. Can you smell fake?  In any event, I'm not going to suggest getting in the way of the upthrust, fake or not. We'll just have to wait and see what Sunday night/Monday morning brings before we place any bets. If you are following this vehicle's charts yourself, don't be intimidated by the size of the swings.  The way they play out and their predictability is exactly the same as if they were insignificant moves on a one-minute chart. That's how you should view them if you want to cut the moves down to tradeable size. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 11:35 p.m.): Regulatory circuit breakers have arrested the futures' hellish plunge Sunday night, but I don't see how the June contract, which settled Friday at 2684, can avoid plummeting all the way to 2204 (!) eventually, circuit breakers or not. That target would be an odds-on bet as far as I'm concerned if p=2450.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot in this hourly chart gets schmeissed when stocks open Monday morning.  This would equate to an approximately 4600-point fall in the Dow Industrials, to 18,500. _____ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:04 p.m.): Although the 2204 downside target remains quite viable, we'll need to respect today's short squeeze off the lows, since it generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.

I've revised downward to 0.26% my forecast for interest rates on the Ten-Year Note.  A 0.30% target given here earlier was based on an erroneously drawn pattern discovered by a subscriber. But could the so-far low at 0.39% have been the bottom, especially considering the power of the subsequent rally to 0.98%? It's possible, but I doubt it. The pattern itself is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that the Hidden Pivot target will not merely be closely approached, but actually touched. This revised forecast will have no bearing on my forecast for a drop to 0.73% on the 30-Year Treasury Bond. It  traded down to a record 0.84% last week but has since rebounded as high as 1.63%. The T-Bond sellers who drove rates back up to that height were useful idiots who were simply fulfilling the inviolable law that no trend ever goes sup or down in a straight line without correcting. ______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:15 p.m.): This is quite a rally we are witnessing -- probably the steepest climb ever recorded for yields on the Ten-Year Note. So, was the dip to 0.39% the finale for the long-term cycle? I doubt it, but I am not going to get in the way of this rally.

A spectacular two-day sell-off has negated the 1731 rally target we were using. Although this has not significantly altered the still-bullish look of the long-term charts, it has put gold in a deep hole that could be difficult to climb out of.  There is a 40% chance nevertheless that the futures have seen their lows for the time being, since Friday's bottom occurred at a 'double' Hidden Pivot support. The chart shows one of them, a secondary pivot at 1508.40; but another, unseen, is the D target of a slightly different pattern with a higher 'B-C' segment. If the so-far timid bounce continues and turns into a bona fide rally, it would need to surpass the 1610.00 peak recorded Thursday on the way down to become significant. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 8:45 a.m. EDT): Gold is getting whacked under heavy liquidation by investors whose idea of a safe haven, evidently, is any asset that can be hocked up the wazoo. This chart says the April contract, currently at 1461, will fall to at least 1407 groping for traction. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 8:32 p.m.): Bullion and mining shares have been so perverse lately that we should allow for the possibility of a powerful rally for no good reason. If it can surpass an 'external' peak at 1574.8 made Sunday on the way down, I'd infer that bulls are back in charge and capable of challenging last week's 1700.70 high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17. 8:41 p.m.): I'm raising the bar to 1598.0 before I believe this rally might go somewhere. That's a tick above an 'external' peak recorded March 13 on the hourly chart, one peak above the one noted earlier at 1574.80. Failing that, the 1407 target given above will be back in play.

This stock was so revved up at the close on Friday that one could almost believe it capable of returning to the old highs. I seriously doubt it, although we shouldn't get too aggressively in the stock's way as it methodically disembowels any bears who survived Friday;s carnage. Remember, AAPL's institutional sponsors are the smartest, craftiest, richest scumbags in the investment world, and they instinctually work together as one when the goal is to replace themselves with new owners. For sure, Warren Buffett and his ilk are in for the long haul. But if they can create opportunities to lighten up at ridiculous prices, they will. From a technical standpoint, Friday's rabid short-squeeze must be respected because it began at a secondary pivot, p2=250.87. That is where corrective moves often end, although reversals occurring from p (in this case, 268.58) should be treated with even more respect. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 8:35 p.m.) The 233.16 target shown in the chart remains valid and can be used to bottom-fish, provided you know how to control the risk tightly. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17, 8:50 p.m.): Not sure what I found to like so much about the 233.16 target, since AAPL has bounced from within 21 cents of another  that comes from as juicy a pattern as I can now find. The stock has been struggling for three days to hold the low, but I won't offer any predictions at the moment concerning whether it will hold. Here's a graphic picture. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:21 p.m.): Buffett and DaBoyz beat back sellers for a third straight day, suggesting this could be the start of a short squeeze more murderous, even, than the $25 tsunami that occurred last Friday.